US 2020 election: Why Donald Trump doesn’t want mail voting

US President Donald Trump has claimed vindication on one of his pet election issues after an embarrassing blunder in one state.

US elections have long been well ahead of our paper ballots and cardboard polling booths when it comes to voting technology, but in 2020, officials are encouraging the use of old-fashioned snail mail.

With the ongoing threat of the coronavirus pandemic, many states in the US are working on how to boost the use of mail-in voting to keep voters safe and prevent large crowds at polling stations. But not everybody is on-board with the idea.

President Donald Trump has become increasingly strident in his attacks on mail-in voting.

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Despite the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issuing guidance in March that advised election officials to “encourage voters to use voting methods that minimise direct contact with other people” and spruiked the mail-in method “if allowed in the jurisdiction”, Mr Trump has repeatedly criticised the postal voting system.

In an all-capitalised tweet on May 29, he said “MAIL-IN VOTING WILL LEAD TO MASSIVE FRAUD AND ABUSE” and "WE CAN NEVER LET THIS TRAGEDY BEFALL OUR NATION”. In another tweet, he suggested that “people grab them from mailboxes, print thousands of forgeries and force people to sign”.

Despite the President’s claims, there is no widespread evidence of this occurring. In fact, a Washington Post analysis of data found just 372 possible cases of double voting out of 14.6 million mail-in votes at the 2016 and 2018 elections.

But Mr Trump continues to insist mail voting will lead to serious fraud.

This week he highlighted a blunder in the state of Virginia, where 580,000 inaccurate mail ballot applications were sent to voters by a private third-party group.

“Half a million incorrect absentee ballot applications were sent out all across the state of Virginia, including to many dead people. This was an unprecedented mailing flub,” said Mr Trump.

“Mail-in voting is a disaster. From all over Virginia, half a million votes. So that is something you have to think about. We don’t want to have a rigged election.

“Our system is not equipped for it, our post office is not equipped for it, and people should vote like they did in World War I and World War II.”

WHY DOES HE CARE HOW PEOPLE VOTE

Some suggest Donald Trump's motivation in discouraging postal voting is to lay the foundations to contest the result of the election in November if things don’t go his way. Picture: SAUL LOEB / AFP

Mr Trump’s fierce opposition to mail-in voting could have several motivations and potentially nothing to do with fraud at all. Firstly, a recent poll conducted by NPR found that 61 per cent of Democrat voters were more likely to want to cast their ballot by mail compared with just 42 per cent of Republicans.

The ease of casting votes by mail is likely to increase voter turnout, which some Republicans fear could result in more votes for Democrats, though this theory has been largely discredited through numerous studies.

Another reason suggested by some analysts is that by casting doubt on the validity of the system, and convincing people their postal votes won't be correctly counted anyway, Mr Trump is discouraging them from voting at all. Again, if people don't vote, that means they won't vote Democrat.

But some suggest Mr Trump's motivation in discouraging postal voting is to lay the foundations to contest the result of the election in November once votes are counted, if they don't end up falling his way.

One of the great ironies in the issue of mail-in voting is that the President himself is expected to vote by mail, from Washington DC, for his home state of Florida.

WHICH STATES HAVE MAIL-IN VOTING?

A woman waits in line to vote in Georgia’s primary election on June 9, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. Picture: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images/AFP

Some states already conduct voting almost entirely by post anyway. Colorado and Washington send mail-in ballots to all registered voters. Other states to adopt the process almost universally include Utah, Oregon and Colorado.

The other states all have different rules when it comes to postal votes. Some states allow any voter to apply for a mail-in ballot, but others allow mail-in votes only for those who have a valid excuse or reason for not getting to a polling place in person.

Part of the reluctance from some states when it comes to embracing postal voting is the cost of doing so, particularly when budgets have been hard hit by the economic crisis caused by COVID-19.

WILL MAIL-IN VOTING DELAY A RESULT?

One of the more practical implications of widespread mail-in voting will be the likelihood that a result of the election may not be known on election evening as the nation will need to wait until all postal votes have been received and counted. This is something Australian voters have become used to with counting for recent federal and state elections stretching out for days after votes were cast.

Some US states allow all ballots to be counted provided that they have an election day postmark, meaning the wait to find out who wins the 2020 US presidential election could be a long one.