Malcolm Turnbull could deliver the ultimate revenge to the party that dumped him

MALCOLM Turnbull is set to deliver a potentially fatal blow to the government that could force it to the polls.

WHEN he quits Parliament this week, Malcolm Turnbull could deliver the ultimate act of revenge to the party that dumped him as prime minister.

His inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth is at risk of falling to Labor in a by-election, new polling shows, which would threaten the government’s one-seat majority.

Scott Morrison could be forced to go to the polls, in an election that on current trend would see the Liberal-National Coalition wiped out.

A ReachTel poll of Mr Turnbull’s seat conducted on Monday shows the two-party preferred result is now 50-50 — a plunge of almost 18 per cent from the last election.

The Liberal Party’s primary vote is now 41.9 per cent without Mr Turnbull as the candidate, down 20 per cent since the election, while Labor’s has soared to 31.5 per cent.

The Liberal Party faces a tough battle to hold on to the seat of Wentworth, vacated by Malcolm Turnbull. Picture: AFP

ABC election analyst Antony Green said he expected “a big swing” against the Liberals at an upcoming by election.

“Malcolm Turnbull has developed a huge personal vote in Wentworth since he has been the member,” Mr Green wrote on Twitter.

As illustrated below, Malcolm Turnbull has developed a huge personal vote in Wentworth since he has been the member. So the odds are on a big swing against the Liberals at the by-election. #auspol pic.twitter.com/l5lf3hXbei

— Antony Green (@AntonyGreenABC) August 28, 2018

In a message on his Facebook page today, Mr Turnbull reaffirmed his view that “the best place for former PMs is out of the parliament”.

“I don’t want to dwell on recent shocking and shameful events - a malevolent and pointless week of madness that disgraced our Parliament and appalled our nation,” Mr Turnbull wrote.

Labor’s preselected candidate Tim Murray looks set to benefit most from the ousted prime minister’s resignation, which he is expected to formalise on Friday.

Mr Murray has moved in political calculations from being a no-chance loser in the coming general election to being a big chance of victory.

A Mandarin-speaking investment analyst with 20 years of business experience with China, he was working the seat long before the Liberal leadership blow-up last week.

But with Mr Turnbull holding a 17 per cent margin two-party preferred from the 2016 election, it was always going to be a big ask to topple the incumbent even for a local like Mr Murray, president of the Tamara Surf Lifesaving Club.

The ReachTel survey also recorded strong support for independents should they stand in Wentworth, although the Greens vote fell almost six per cent to nine per cent.

The field is certain to be crammed. The Greens have nominated local Dominic Wy Kanak.

Tim Murray is the Labor candidate for the Federal seat of Wentworth in the upcoming Wentworth by-election. Picture; John Appleyard

Independents Alex Greenwich, a NSW MLC, announced today that he would not be throwing his hat in the ring.

The big preselection will be in the Liberal Party, which believes it has two attractive options.

One is Christine Forster, well known in Sydney local government and as a prominent gay rights activist, and David Sharma, businessman and former ambassador to Israel.

Wentworth has a strong Jewish community and voted 80 per cent for same-sex marriage in the national plebiscite.

Scott Morrison faces a mammoth challenge should the Liberal Party lose in a Wentworth by election. Picture: Kym Smith

Mr Turnbull has argued that for him to have won Wentworth he had to capture the votes of people who usually support Labor.

He is quitting Parliament after last week’s challenge by Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, which ultimately led to former Treasurer Scott Morrison winning the ballot.

A Labor victory in Wentworth could leave Mr Morrison with a tied House of Representatives.

The Coalition currently has 75 MPs, one of whom is the Speaker.

Labor has 69 MPs and there are five on the cross bench.

The full transcript of Mr Turnbull’s final letter:

Today I have written to my constituents in Wentworth to thank them and to let them know I will be resigning from Parliament later this week.

And thank you to the thousands of Australians who have written to me thanking me for my public service and expressing their disgust at the shameful events of last week. I will respond to your messages after Lucy and I have had a break. We deeply appreciate your support.

Here is my letter to Wentworth in full.

I am writing to thank you for giving me the honour of representing Wentworth in the House of Representatives these past 14 years.

Your support has enabled me to be a Minister and, for the past almost three years, Prime Minister.

Everything I have achieved for Australia in public life has been due to you - built on the foundation of this community, which Lucy and I love and where we have always lived.

Thank you, from the bottom of my heart.

I don’t want to dwell on recent shocking and shameful events - a malevolent and pointless week of madness that disgraced our Parliament and appalled our nation.

As you know, I have always said that the best place for former PMs is out of the Parliament, and recent events amply demonstrate why.

I will be resigning as the Member for Wentworth later this week and you should expect a by-election before too long. So this is my last letter to you as your federal member.

It has been at times a wild ride, but together we have achieved an enormous amount. I am very proud, especially, of the achievements of the Government over the past almost three years.

With a one-seat majority in the House and a minority in the Senate many said that this Government would be “in office but not in power”. We disproved that.

We legalised Same Sex Marriage - and did so with overwhelming public support across the nation and especially here in Wentworth, where over 80 per cent voted YES for marriage equality.

We delivered, as we promised, more jobs and stronger economic growth. Last year was Australia’s best year ever for jobs growth, and at 3.1 per cent our GDP growth rate is higher than any of the G7 economies.

And in doing that we were able to repair the budget and reduce taxes - both for individuals and 3.3 million small and medium-sized businesses employing 6.8 million Australians.

A stronger economy, of course, produces stronger government revenues and it has enabled us to invest record amounts into education and health. Don’t believe Labor’s lies about us cutting health spending - it has never been higher!

In another historic reform, we have, for the first time, delivered consistent national and needs-based Commonwealth school funding.

While the Liberal Party struggles to find internal consensus on climate change policies, we have nonetheless made real strides to support the transition to cleaner, renewable energy sources and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

The Snowy Hydro 2.0 pumped storage project will make renewables reliable. It is an example of the practical approach I have taken to the energy challenge, where economics and engineering are better guides than ideology and, all too often, sheer idiocy.

And through strong action we have been able to make energy more affordable. After years of price increases we have turned the corner on electricity costs!

Snowy 2.0 is only one of many huge infrastructure projects the Turnbull Government has got under way: the Western Sydney Airport and all the rail and roads that go with it, the Melbourne-to-Brisbane Inland Rail and so much more totalling $75 billion over the next decade.

There is no greater obligation on Government than keeping Australians safe. The Turnbull Government embarked on the largest re-equipment of our armed forces in peacetime.

In particular, I am very proud of our naval shipbuilding plan, the nation’s largest-ever program of naval shipbuilding and sustainment that will create thousands of high tech 21st century jobs in advanced manufacturing.

With sweeping reforms we have strengthened our intelligence, security and law enforcement services. There has been no set-and-forget on national security.

And at a time of growing global tensions and rising uncertainty, Australia remains a steadfast example of a harmonious, egalitarian and enterprising nation. We are the most successful multicultural society in the world and our diversity is our greatest strength.

On the international scene, against all the odds, we kept the Trans Pacific Partnership alive despite President Trump’s withdrawal - and in doing so protected billions of dollars worth of exports and thousands of Australian jobs. We ensured that the US did not impose tariffs on Australian steel or aluminium, as it did with other countries.

And with my friend President Widodo, we committed to a free-trade agreement with Indonesia, which is due to be signed by this weekend.

We secured and then maintained a refugee resettlement deal with the US, with more than 370 refugees that Labor put on Manus and Nauru now resettled in the US. And there was not one successful people-smuggling expedition to Australia during my time as Prime Minister.

There is a lot more about our Government and its achievements - which remember you made possible - on my webpage https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/delivering-for-you.

After we take some time out to rest up, Lucy and I will be back and look forward to seeing you in the neighbourhood here in Wentworth - the best part of the best country in the world.

Yours sincerely,

Malcolm Turnbull