Shock vote proves Malcolm Turnbull is dead man walking

THE PM used a shock tactic in an attempt to catch his challenger off guard. All it did was prove he is a dead man walking.

IT WAS supposed to be a solidifying move, but all Malcolm Turnbull’s shock vote has done is prove he’s a dead man walking.

It’s now official. Almost half of the Liberal party room has put it to paper that they don’t want the Prime Minister to keep his job.

More than a third of the party cast a vote for Peter Dutton, who to many was still considered a long shot to claim the leadership.

Mr Turnbull walked into this morning’s meeting with a goal to regain control of the party amid backbench rabble rousing and fevered speculation, but after vacating his position and a 48-35 vote against Mr Dutton, he walked out wounded.

What the sudden vote has actually done is grant legitimacy to a previously easily dismissible candidate, and made another vote inevitable.

Malcolm Turnbull entered the party room hoping to cement his leadership, but came out a loser. Picture: Lukas Coch/AAP

Despite its well-publicised build up, this morning’s ballot came as a surprise. Neither Mr Turnbull nor his prospective replacement had begun officially courting support by ringing around and gathering their numbers.

As journalist Patricia Karvelas noted on ABC News, considering this, the result for Malcolm Turnbull was “absolutely devastating”.

“Peter Dutton has managed to get 35 votes without the kind of preparation that usually an aspirant has,” Karvelas said.

Mr Turnbull may have been pouncing to take advantage of his opponents’ lack of preparation, but in doing so he has provided a compelling test case. If this is the kind of result Mr Dutton and his supporters can turn up at zero notice, imagine what kind of numbers a fully fledged internal campaign could yield.

Commentators are predicting another party room ballot is imminent and a federal election likely before Christmas.

Karvelas said Liberals doing the numbers and building support for Mr Dutton were considering another shot within 48 hours.

“They feel like the Prime Minister didn’t give them time, that it wasn’t necessarily a very fair process for them to build their numbers,” she said. “It is devastating for the Prime Minister. There’s no other way of viewing it.”

Following Karvelas’s observation, ABC broadcaster Barrie Cassidy predicted it was entirely possible for Mr Dutton to claim the top job by the end of the week.

Commentators are predicting Peter Dutton could swoop before the week is out. Picture: Sean Davey/AFP

“With Hawke and Keating all those years ago, it was 60-40 and he knew that he would get him. Forty-eight to 35, well, you can do it in two days,” Cassidy said.

Prior to this morning’s vote, the leadership tension could be put down to a few malcontents or backbench agitation. This morning’s numbers show the situation is far more serious, and for Mr Turnbull, it is dire.

Mr Dutton has this morning resigned his position as home affairs minister, meaning over the next few days, or however long it takes, he’ll have more time to devote to courting support and will be able to campaign from the backbench without the constraints of being a cabinet minister.

Only a handful of MPs need to change their minds to hand Mr Dutton the job, and with Mr Turnbull’s popularity waning both inside the party and in the public eye, it’s the Prime Minister’s challenger who has a far greater chance at switching colleagues to his side. For votes to flop the other way is almost inconceivable.

Mr Turnbull has already far surpassed the benchmark he set for a leadership takeover when he dumped Tony Abbott.

“Surely one of the most important foundations of our prosperity, to know that he (Opposition Leader Bill Shorten) is utterly unfit to be prime minister of this country and yet so he will be if we do not make a change,” Mr Turnbull when he launched his challenge against Mr Abbott in 2015.

“The one thing that is clear about our current situation is trajectory. We have lost 30 Newspolls in a row. It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr Abbott’s leadership.”

In only a few weeks, Mr Turnbull will set a new record of losing 40 Newspolls in a row.

The latest polling shows voter support for the Prime Minister has collapsed even further, and this morning’s numbers show that slump is reflected in his own party.

Addressing the party room after the disastrous vote, Mr Turnbull said: “It’s time to get back to work and focus on delivering for all Australians.”

But it appears the Prime Minister will have to focus everything he has on working to avoid delivering the leadership to Mr Dutton.