‘Putin’s next target’: Another European country on Russia hit list

All eyes are on Ukraine and the Russian troops massing nearby, but Moscow has quietly been making moves on another European nation and the West is worried.

All eyes might be on Ukraine and the thousands of Russian troops massing on the border, but Moscow has quietly been making moves on its “next target”. And there seems little the West can – or is willing to – do about it.

Russian President Vladmir Putin is said to have placed more than 100,000 soldiers, military hardware and set up supply chains close to Ukraine’s frontier.

The alleged aim of Moscow’s sabre rattling is to bring a slew of former Soviet states, that it once called its own, back into its orbit. And if that means gobbling up territories and snuffing out democracies, then so be it.

“Putin hasn’t set his sights on just Ukraine,” said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at UK defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute.

“Further destabilisation of Georgia is next on his agenda.”

And there are concerns that if the West isn’t successful in deterring Moscow from further action in Ukraine, that will give Mr Putin further confidence to go to town on Georgia.

Ukrainian soldiers Mykhailo (L) and Pavlo build a bunker on the front line on December 12, 2021 in Zolote, Ukraine. A build-up of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine has heightened worries that Russia intends to invade the region. Picture: Brendan Hoffman/Getty Images

Russia’s Ukraine ‘playbook’ perfected in Georgia

The nation of 3.7 million, a minnow compared to Russia’s 144 million, is located in the Caucasus region that bridges Europe and Asia. Turkey and Iran lie to Georgia’s south.

Divided from one another by a chunk of Russian territory, Ukraine and Georgia have much in common. They both lie on the shores of the Black Sea; both are sovereign nations that declared independence in the 1990s in the dying days of the USSR; both are democracies that lean towards the West and both have had huge chunks of them bitten off by Moscow.

Indeed, what happened in Ukraine in 2014, where Russia annexed the Crimea and Russian backed forces occupied the country’s eastern Donbas region, had overtones of Moscow’s action in Georgia in 2008.

A 12-day war between Georgia and Mr Putin’s Russia saw two regions that had been internationally recognised as being part of Georgia – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – brought under the de facto control of Moscow, which remains the case to this day.

Ms Seskuria wrote in journal Foreign Policythat Russia’s claims that its current movements on Ukraine’s border are in fact merely a reaction to alleged massing of troops by Kiev close to the Donbass is “from the Kremlin’s playbook” perfected in Georgia.

“It bears an astounding resemblance to the escalation of the conflict in Georgia in 2008, when the Kremlin justified its military aggression by arguing it needed to protect civilians from an alleged Georgian offensive.”

Georgia is situated in the Caucasus, south of Russia and north of Turkey and Iran. Picture Google

Moscow’s plan to dominate neighbours

In Mr Putin’s world view, Russia needs a backyard of like-minded states singing Moscow’s tune. Belarus, with its pro-Russia harsh dictatorship led by Alexandr Lukashenko, is one model.

But the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 saw many post-Soviet republics run into the arms of the West embracing capitalism and democracy.

To Moscow’s ongoing anger, the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – which border Russia – are now not only in the European Union but the US-led NATO military alliance as well.

Mr Putin never wants that situation to be tolerated again.

Neither Georgia nor Ukraine are in either bloc – and they’re not likely to be given Moscow’s irritation.

But both are far closer to the West than they are to Moscow and that has rattled Mr Putin.

Ms Seskuria said Moscow was continuing to meddle in Georgia despite already effectively controlling 20 per cent of it already through South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of meddling in Georgia for years. Picture: Mikhail METZEL / Sputnik / AFP

“With Georgia remaining the West’s only credible ally in the area, Russia’s aim is to keep Western leverage out of the region,” said Ms Seskuria who also serves at the Office of the National Security Council of Georgia.

“The country’s ongoing domestic political instability and polarisation gives Putin a free hand to increase Russia’s influence.”

While Georgia is democratic, it’s a messy democracy.

The country is split down the middle into traditionalists and progressives and supporters of the two main parties of Georgia Dream and the UNM.

The UNM’s President Mikheil Saakashvili governed the country for a decade until 2013, including during the Russian war.

He lived in Ukraine when his presidency finished but was convicted in 2018 of abusing his office in power. Retuning to Georgia in October, which is now led by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili of Georgia Dream, he was arrested and imprisoned. Mr Saakashvili then held a 50-day hunger strike which saw his supporters flock to the streets of the capital Tbilisi.

Colourful traditional houses in the Old Town of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital. Picture: iStock

Georgia ‘Russia’s next target’

Dr Kamran Bokhari of US think tank the Newlines Institute has warned Georgia could be “Russia’s next target” particularly if the West is distracted by Ukraine.

“Of the Black Sea’s five littoral states allied with the US (Ukraine, Georgia, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria) Georgia is the only to the east of the Black Sea and highly exposed to the Kremlin on its entire northern flank,” he wrote in publication the National Interest.

“Since its independence, Russia has been preventing Georgia from becoming a stable Western ally, including by continuing to occupy the breakaway exclaves.”

Dr Bokhari said Georgia was “highly susceptible to Russian pressure” not just militarily but also by meddling in Tbilisi’s politics.

He has argued for the West to stand with Georgia against Russia.

Georgia’s democracy is fractious and messy, but it is a democracy nonetheless. Picture: Vano Shlamov / AFP

Russia’s plan to entice Georgia rejected

Mr Garibashvili’s Georgian Dream party is more pragmatic when it comes to Russia and has signalled it wants better relations with its huge neighbour. But on its terms.

For instance, Georgia’s leaders seem in no mood to entertain Moscow’s recent overtures.

The latest plan floated by Russia is to entice Georgia into the so-called “3+3 platform”. This would see enhanced co-operation on a range of issues, from the economy to infrastructure, between the large regional trio of Russia, Turkey and Iran and the smaller trio of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The 3+3 platform would have the handy side effect of isolating Georgia from Western allies and could effectively see Tbilisi tacitly acknowledge the loss of its regions to Russia.

In October, Georgia’s foreign Minister David Zalkaliani rejected the proposed alliance, calling Russia an “occupier”.

Georgia's jailed opposition leader and ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili gestures from the defendant's box during an earing at the city court of Tbilisi on November 29, 2021. Picture: Irakli Gedenidze / Pool / AFP

“It will be very difficult for us to participate with the occupier in conditions when we do not see any process towards de-occupation,” reported The Georgian Journal.

“The red line is our sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

In December, Tbilisi formally rejected membership of 3+3, leaving it more like 3+2.

But if Georgia can’t be coaxed with riches, Moscow may resort to more nefarious tactics emboldened by the country’s political travails, said Ms Seskuria.

“Local pro-Russian forces are openly promoting violence, hate speech, and closer ties with Russia, representing a good overview of the Kremlin’s multidimensional approach in its bid to turn Tbilisi away from the West,” she said.

“The current instability in Georgia creates fertile ground for the Kremlin to further polarise Georgian society and present the country to the West as a failed state.”

All eyes may be on Ukraine, but Moscow’s meddling, it’s alleged, goes far wider.