Peace in Asia at risk if Australia doesn’t fill the Trump void

AUSTRALIA will have to up its influence in Asia because of President Donald Trump’s approach to the region, a senior US security expert claims.

FORGET that awkward phone call — Australia will have to stand up to the US and take the lead to stop war breaking out in Asia, say senior defence experts.

The report from Sydney University’s US Studies Centre (USSC) states rising Chinese power and ambition and America’s political dysfunction is threatening stability in Indo-Pacific Asia.

As a result, US allies — like Australia and Japan — will need to “invest more” in their own defence and regional security co-operation, says the report’s author, David Shear, the former US Assistant Secretary of Defence for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs.

“The new (US) administration’s erratic foreign policy performance and the prospect of longer-

term dysfunction in American policymaking have drastically increased regional uncertainty and shaken our allies’ belief in US staying power,” he warned in the report.

Donald Trump and Malcolm Turnbull will have to work to together to ensure peace, the report warns. Source: AP/AAP

President Trump doesn’t come out well in the report either, with Mr Shear saying he has “deepened this crisis” and his foreign policy spats with regional leaders becoming “the stuff of legend”.

“His open disdain for alliances during the campaign, his surprise phone call with Taiwan

President Tsai Ing-wen followed by his retraction and then reinstatement of the ‘one China policy’, his bizarre January phone call with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, his rejection of the trans-Pacific Partnership, and his administration’s obsessive focus on trade deficits have engendered profound uncertainty throughout the region,” he wrote.

SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR US?

Aussies may have to step up in the world and work with other Asian nations to ensure stability, says USSC’s Acting Director of Foreign Policy, Defence and Strategy Ashley Townshend.

“Put simply, the US is not going to be the backstop for all regional security issues,” he said. “If America will not be as invested in the security of vulnerable Southeast Asian nations, we can’t take for granted that those countries will have the confidence to stand up to foreign interference. We must genuinely band together in regional security initiatives.

“Larger countries like Australia and Japan will have a much greater degree of confidence, but when we’re talking about countries in the region which don’t have a lot of resilience — if someone isn’t supporting their capacity to stand up for themselves then they may waver.

“We should genuinely band together in regional security initiatives.”

China is still in a dispute with other nations over the South China Sea. Source Supplied

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

The report comes at a critical time for Asia, as China’s biggest leader just got a lot more powerful and the superpower’s trillion-dollar trade plan is edging closer to reality every day.

In an earlier interview with news.com.au, Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the world could now expect to see Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unbridled power.

Yesterday, the country’s ruling Communist Party inserted Xi’s name and dogma into the party’s constitution alongside the party’s founders, including Mao Zedong.

“He (Xi) is likely to take China on a more assertive path that is really about challenging US global leadership and most clearly, strategic primacy in Asia,” he said.

Dr Davis said he expected China to promote the Belt and Road Initiative as a means to achieving the China Dream of becoming a global superpower which dominates Asia.

President Xi Jinping is revealing China’s new global aspirations. Source: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

“They won’t admit that is their goal, but they do have hegemonic ambitions, and I think Xi’s assertion of a ‘Beijing Consensus’ — their approach to development that eschews democratisation — is a real challenge for Australia and other democracies,” he said.

The superpower is also in a dispute with several other Asian nations over the South China Sea. However, the tension over the region has reportedly temporarily decreased after a joint declaration on Monday.

Defence chiefs from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) called for stability, peace, freedom of navigation over the disputed waters.

CAN AUSTRALIA MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Australia may be small in terms of its defence spending and population — but Mr Townshend believes we can wield big influence over what happens in Asia, especially if we band together with other like-minded nations.

“Australia needs to use its influence in the White House to press the Trump administration to develop a regional strategy,” he said.

“The region was expecting a Hillary Clinton victory and believed that she would double-down on the ‘rebalance to Asia’ — not just in military terms, but in economic and diplomatic terms.

“That hasn’t happened. We need to use our good offices in Washington to continually make the point that a comprehensive rebalance is critical for the region — that America needs to stay fully invested in the region.”

Australia may be able to influence President Donald Trump. Source: AP.

He argues that we are in “as good a position” as anyone to make this case to senior US officials.

“While we’re trying to press the administration, we should also be working with the region to assume a greater leadership role in Asia ourselves — in line with US and regional interests,” he said.

“That means we need to be maintaining and deepening our relationships with countries in South-East Asia in particular in tandem with stronger regional partners like Japan, India and Singapore.

“We need to be trying to offset some of the gaps that may emerge in America’s investment in South-East Asia under the Trump administration.

“This will also show that the region is ‘doing its part’ to the US.”