NZ opinion polls show Labour’s vote rising since Jacinda Ardern resigned as PM

Jacinda Ardern said she resigned as she didn’t have enough left “in the tank”. A more pressing reason has now been revealed.

Jacinda Ardern with then incoming Labour leader and Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins on January 24, 2023 in Whanganui, New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Jacinda Ardern said she stepped down as New Zealand’s prime minister because she “no longer had enough in the tank”.

But a series of damning new opinion polls has revealed a more likely reason is because she knew Kiwis had lost their faith in her.

Her successor Chris Hipkins has led New Zealand’s Labour Party to a huge boost with voters, putting it in pole position to win the country’s upcoming general election.

A poll by Reid Research for news service NewsHub showed Labour up by 5 points to 38 per cent of the vote, with the opposition National party on 37 per cent.

It’s a similar situation to when Ms Ardern took over as Labour leader in 2017, with her appointment immediately seeing the party jump in the polls.

“This poll is a tectonic shift in the political centre of gravity,” said NewsHub political editor Jenna Lynch.

“Labour is in front, somewhere they’ve not been for a year now.”

Jacinda Ardern poses at her desk for the last time as Prime Minister at parliament on January 25, 2023 in Wellington. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Another poll, this one for 1 News by researchers Kantar, showed exactly the same results for the two major parties.

In addition, 1News found Chris Hipkins had a net approval rating of 35 per cent while National leader Christopher Luxton trailed on nine points.

The next NZ general election is due to be held in October.

“Chris Hipkins is Labour’s saviour. An affable chap who has immediately swivelled his party out of its spiral by being a bit real, a bit relatable, and a bit reliable,” wrote Lynch.

“But top points for political masterstroke must be given to Jacinda Ardern for masterminding a clean changing of the guard.”

Jacinda Ardern with then incoming Labour leader and Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins on January 24, 2023 in Whanganui, New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

While popular overseas, the former Prime Minister’s appeal at home had waned as the country exited the pandemic.

Anger over Covid-19 restrictions, the cost of living, crime and a number of botched political initiatives had all taken their toll.

Former National Party staffer and political commentator Ben Thomas told 1News New Zealanders saw Mr Hipkins as a “really capable leader”.

“Hr really nailed the messaging. Labour have done exactly what they needed to: talked about pivoting towards to more middle class, working class concerns, cost of living, and getting away from those issues that they feel are a distraction.”

New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has had a big bump in the polls. (Photo by Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images)

New NZ PM shouldn’t get too comfy

Nonetheless, Ms Hipkins shouldn’t get too comfortable with his poll numbers. Labour only lead National by a narrow margin and are unlikely to be able to govern alone.

On current polling, Labour would fall just short of the needed 61 seat majority and would almost certainly need the support of Te Pati Maori, the Maori party, to form power. That party could equally decide to back National instead and get them over the line in a close election.

Mr Hipkins' polling is also behind Ms Ardern’s when she became opposition leader weeks before the 2017 election which would install her as one of the world’s youngest PMs.

“Hipkins is not at a phenomenon level,” said Lynch.

“Ardern’s first rank as Labour leader was 26.3 per cent and her election to leader led to a 9 point poll bump for Labour.”

Mr Hipkins said the polls were pleasing but there was still “a lot of work ahead”.

“New Zealanders, I think, know what to expect from me. They’ll expect someone who’s fairly straight up, fairly honest.”

Ms Ardern announced that she would resign as PM in mid January.

Choking back tears she said she had hoped to find the energy and heart to continue in the role over summer, “but I have not been able to do that”.

“Having reflected over summer I know I no longer have that bit extra in the tank to do the job justice. It’s that simple.”

She said she had reflected on her own future. “This has been the most fulfilling five and a half years of my life”.