North Korea push will send US allies to China: Ex-CIA analyst

CHINA is poised to exploit Donald Trump’s move against North Korea by luring US allies into its grasp, says a former CIA analyst.

DONALD Trump’s move against North Korea is set to send American allies like Japan and South Korea into China’s hands, giving the Asian giant a “once in a generation” opportunity in its push to become the world’s number one superpower, a former top intelligence officer has warned.

Former CIA intelligence analyst and National Security Council director Paul Miller, a senior US security adviser under George W. Bush, says there is no way China will co-operate with any US strategy that increases America’s influence.

It comes as tensions escalate rapidly around the Korean peninsula, with reports of China deploying troops along its border with North Korea and the US conducting crack Navy Seal training exercises in South Korea.

US Marines and military vehicles in a US-South Korea joint exercise this week. Photo: AP

Dr Miller says that far from increasing American power in Asia, China will exploit the uncertainty around US foreign policy on North Korea, Syria and free trade, to pit America’s Asian allies against each other in a race to the safety of China’s protection.

“Chinese leaders can exploit these tensions, exert more pressure on South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, etc., who are fearful of US abandonment,” he told news.com.au.

“They can play these allies off each other and create a competition for Chinese favour by implying they will favour whomever abandons the US first.”

Dr Miller was director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the National Security Council from 2007 to 2009, an intelligence analyst for the CIA from 2003 to 2007 and a military intelligence officer in the US Army.

He is currently associate director at the Clements Center for National Security at the University of Texas. From there he told news.com.au that any notion China would co-operate with the US in action to contain North Korea was wrong.

If US President Donald Trump expects co-operation from Chinese President Xi Jinping over North Korea he’s got another thing coming, says ex-CIA analyst Paul Miller. Photo: AFP

“China is unlikely to acquiesce in any US unilateral actions on the Korean Peninsula, and will not co-operate in any plan that they believe will increase US influence there,” he said.

“The US’s negotiating posture vis-a-vis China is weaker now than it was during the previous administration because Chinese leaders are aware of the tensions between the US and our allies in the region due to the Trump administration’s public disparagement of the allies and its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.”

The TPP was a landmark free trade deal between the US, Asia and Australia but Mr Trump ditched the plan in favour of a more protectionist and nationalistic stance that has sent shockwaves through the international community.

Dr Miller says China will exploit this ruthlessly, along with Mr Trump’s actions in Syria.

“They can exert economic pressure on neighbours who now see no prospects for greater economic integration with the US with the demise of the TPP,” he said.

“They can also point to the Trump administration’s actions elsewhere in the world, including the strikes in Syria, to paint the US as mercurial, fickle, unpredictable, and even dangerous.

“In short, the Chinese likely have their best opportunity in a generation to expand their influence in East Asia at America’s expense.”

The US Navy aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, which is participating in the annual joint military exercise called Foal Eagle between South Korea and the United States. Photo: AP

Meanwhile, the crack US Navy Seal team that took out Osama bin Laden is reportedly in training in South Korea, conducting “field training operations”.

South Korean media claims the famed Seal Team 6 — which killed bin Laden in May 2011 — is part of the Foal Eagle and Key Resolve exercise being carried out from March 7 to April 30 in South Korea.

While US military would not confirm the reports, it said “ground, air, naval and special operations” are taking part in “several joint and combined field training operations” which involve up to 17,000 troops.

The special operations teams are thought to also include the Army Rangers, Delta Force and Green Berets. The training commenced one day after US deployed its state of the art THAAD missile defence system to the region.

South Korea’s JoongAng Daily has claimed the teams would take part in a drill to simulate the removal of Kim Jong-un however this was denied by former US Navy Commander Gary Ross.

Asked about the Navy team’s participation in March, Commander Ross said: “There are variety of Special Operations Forces (SOF) participating in Foal Eagle, as they do in most regional exercises.

“Foal Eagle is a regularly-scheduled, annual exercise that is the culmination of many months of planning and it is not being conducted in response to the current situation on peninsula,” he said.

A picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency shows a national meeting at the People's Palace of Culture in Pyongyang this week to celebrate the 5th anniversary of Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un's ascension. Photo: AFP/KCNA VIA KNS

The Australian newspaper has also cited “growing citizen reports” that China is deploying troops along its 1420km - border with North Korea.

China correspondent Rowan Callick said the social media claims appeared to be supported by an odd story on the Global Times website citing South Korea’s Yonhap newsagency reporting on the deployment of 150,000 extra Chinese troops however China’s official state newsagency Xinhua had not confirmed the move overnight.

A local resident told The Australian: “We are hoping that the social media rumours of soldiers coming are true, for our safety.”

South Korea’s Chosun.com reported China was deploying medical and other units to handle North Korean refugees and any other aftermath of “unforeseen circumstances” such as a US strike, the newspaper said.