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New Zealand Election 2020 results: Jacinda Ardern claims landslide victory

Jacinda Ardern has won by a stunning landslide in the NZ election - but one thing she didn't say when claiming victory is raising eyebrows.

Benedict BrookBenedict Brook
@BenedictBrook
less than 2 min read
October 18, 2020 - 12:05AM
Jacinda Ardern wins NZ Election in historic landslide

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has claimed a landslide election victory. 

At a Labour event in Auckland she had two simple words to say: "thank you".

But it's what she didn't say that raised eyebrows. 

Pollsters forecast Labour would do well, but not this well. A Friday poll put the PM's party at 44 per cent, but they're actually currently on around 49 per cent.

Labour could have enough votes to govern without a coalition partner - something that's unheard of in New Zealand. 

One commentator said the result was so strong it "defied logic" given New Zealand's voting system almost always lead to coalitions. 

The outlook for the opposition National party is even bleaker than predicted. It has been lambasted as a "total disaster" for the opposition. A former minister said the National's campaign had been a "litany of cock ups" .

Leader Judith Collins conceded defeat, telling her supporters she had congratulated Ms Ardern but warned "we'll be back". 

What we know so far: 

  • Labour are on 49 per cent of the vote
  • It will likely have 64 seats in the 120-seat parliament
  • Jacinda Ardern will be returned as PM
  • Despite having just below half the vote they are are on track for a majority of four in the 120-seat parliament, meaning they can govern alone
  • It's been a "bloodbath" for the Judith Collins' led National party
  • NZ First's Winston Peters, who helped make Ms Ardern PM in 2017, has lost his seat

Updates

One thing Ardern didn't say in her victory speech

Jacinda Ardern gave a gracious victory speech tonight. There were lots of thank yous and talk of New Zealanders moving forward together.

But there was something she left out – any mention of the Greens.

Under New Zealand's voting system, parties usually have to govern in coalition. And Labour had been expected to join forces with the Greens this time around.

But Labour's stonking victory, with a projected 64 seats in the 120 seat parliament, means Ardern may not need them.

No surprise then that she didn't talk about the Greens or any kind of coalition in her speech.

Talking to Newshub later, Ms Ardern kept her cards close to her chest and said election night was not the night to discuss such matters.

Certainly the Greens would not be in a good negotiating position and would be hard pressed to demand much.

Jacinda Ardern embraces partner Clarke Gayford following her speech. Picture: Hannah Peters/Getty Images

But Labour might not want to be too smug. Many commentators believe this could be a high water mark for Labour. Come the next election in 2023, they may need a coalition partner to govern.

They may want to keep the Greens on side, even if they don’t strictly need them right now.

What the NZ parliament will look like

With more than 95 per cent of the votes counted, Labour has come within a whisker of winning an overall majority of the vote.

But that doesn't matter because the electoral body is projecting that Labour will end up with 64 seats, well above a majority in the House Of Representatives.

It is the first time since New Zealand changed its voting system in the mid-1990s that a vote has been this decisive.

Labour is the biggest party on 49 per cent of the vote. National follows on a embarrassingly low 27 per cent and 35 sears. In third is David Seymour's ACT on 8 per cent and then the Greens which both get 10 seats.

The Maori Party re-enter parliament with one seat.

The party of Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, New Zealand First, crashes out of parliament.

Jacinda Ardern claims victory

Labour's Jacinda Ardern has claimed victory in the New Zealand election and has said two simple words: "Thank you".

At a jubilant speech in Auckland she said her government would focus on three things: jobs and the economy, preventing poverty and the environment.

The party is currently on 49 per cent of the vote and is looking at enough seats to govern in its own right.

Jacinda Ardern at the victory event in Auckland

Ms Ardern said the result was the greatest for Labour in 50 years.

"We won seats we hoped for and many that we didn't expect. And for that I only have two simple words: 'thank you'."

The PM said she would not take the huge show of support for granted.

"We will be a party that governs for every New Zealander. And governing for every New Zealander has never been more important.

"Labour will lead for the next three years, and over the next three years there is much to do.

"We will build back better from the COVID crisis."

Ms Ardern then turned to the "polarisation" of politics.

"Elections aren't always great at bringing people together, but they also don't need to tear one another apart.

"We live in a world where people have less time to see others' points of view.

"This election shows this is not who we are. Let's step forward together".

Opposition concedes - Ardern has won it

Nationals leader Judith Collins has channeled Arnold Schwarzenegger in the Terminator saying "we'll be back" despite the party's massive loss.

National is currently polling far worse than expected and is on just 27 per cent of the vote, fewer even than the 33 per cent that had been expected in the polls.

"Boy did we know this was going to be tough," Ms Collins told the crowd.

She said she had called Jacinda Ardern to concede defeat.

"I congratulated her upon her result," she said.

Judith Collins concedes defeat. Picture: Greg Bowker/Getty Images

Then she struck a more sombre note.

"New Zealand is facing a tough economic ride.

"It will need better fiscal policy then we have seen so far."

She ended on a bullish tone.

"Three years will be gone in a blink of an eye and I say to everyone, 'we will be back'. Bring on 2023."

Jacinda Ardern leaves home

A jubilant Jacinda Ardern has left her home in the Auckland suburb of Sandringham struggling to get through a mass of reporters and locals.

She is heading to Labour's election night party where she is expected to confirm her victory.

The melee as Jacinda Ardern leaves home.

"Result defies logic"

One of the number crunchers on the TV coverage of the New Zealand election has summed it up as saying the "result defies logic".

Ryan Bridge of NewsHub said NZ's mixed-member proportional representation was designed to prevent exactly the outcome of tonight which is a majority government.

The way the votes could fall. Picture: Newshub.

Under MMP, introduced in the mid-1990s, Kiwis get two votes. One is a traditional vote for a local MP; the other is a "party vote" which is divided up based on share. That has meant smaller parties like NZ First, ACT and the Greens have often been kingmakers.

If you want to know more about the voting system, we did an article on it you can have a look at.

"This result defies logic because we bought in MMP so we wouldn't swing to the right or the left," said Mr Bridge.

"The result says, who cares about MMP?"

On the current results Labour and the Greens will have 74 of the 120 votes in the Parliament.

No sign of Jacinda yet

She's practically certain to be returned as prime minister but where is Jacinda Ardern?

The PM is holed up in her house in suburban Sandringham close to Auckland's CBD.

Her sister has joined her indoors and partner Clarke Gayford served food to the waiting reporters.

Local kids are cheering her eat the garden fence.

But it's likely she will remain at her home until National leader Judith Collins concedes defeat.

Her car has been seen heading to the opposition rally, so it might not be long before Ms Ardern gives her victory speech.

Maverick Deputy PM bows out gracefulluy

Winston Peters, the leader of the small New Zealand First Party, who saw himself promoted to Acting Prime Minister for a time when Jacinda Ardern gave birth, has tonight bowed out of politics.

Mr Peters was fundamental in delivering Labour government and Ms Ardern the top job in 2017.

The populist politician said he decided to side with Labour, rather than National who were then in power and who he had been expected to side with, to "shake up the status quo".

However, the vote of his party collapsed tonight and is currently at just 2.4 per cent, well below the 5 per cent minimum needed to get MPs.

At a speech at an NZ First event he said the election, held against the backdrop of COVID-19, was "like no one we've ever seen".

"Three years ago we committed to be a constructive partner in government" he told the gathering.

Ms Ardern might not agree with Mr Peters pushing back against several Labour policies. But he was also a convenient person to blame if things went wrong, something a Labour majority government won't have the luxury of.

After his short speech, Mr Peters simple said: "God bless you and God Bless New Zealand".

"Greatest election victory in history"

The superlatives are coming in thick and fast as an historic landslide win for Jacinda Arden and Labour rolls in.

Speaking on NZ television tonight, New Zealand Herald political columnist Matthew Hooton, who was once on the staff of the opposition party, said it was the "greatest election victory in history".

And you know, while it might sound like hubris, it’s very possible he’ll be right.

Labour's current 51 per cent of the vote is one of the highest the country has ever seen.

More than that though, no party has done this well under an electoral system introduced in the mid-1990s that boosted smaller parties. That change has led to only coalition governments at each election.

But seemingly not this time with Labour possibly being able to govern alone.

"If you put together the left – Labour and the Greens – this is 58 per cent of the vote,” said Mr Wooton.

"This puts Jacinda Arden in the pantheon of historical New Zealand prime ministers".

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