New Hampshire primaries: Pivotal moment in US presidential race

DONALD Trump has claimed his first triumph in America’s presidential race, blowing away his rivals in the New Hampshire primary today.

DONALD Trump has claimed his first triumph in America’s presidential race, blowing away his Republican rivals in the New Hampshire primary.

Trump’s margin of victory was so vast that US media networks declared him the winner before 10 per cent of the vote had even been counted.

On the Democratic side, another outsider is surging. Left-wing senator Bernie Sanders has beaten establishment favourite Hillary Clinton by a whopping margin.

REPUBLICAN RESULTS (88.3% counted)

Donald Trump 35.1%

John Kasich 15.9%

Ted Cruz 11.4%

Jeb Bush 11.1%

Marco Rubio 10.6%

Chris Christie 7.5%

Carly Fiorina 4.2%

Ben Carson 2.3%

DEMOCRATIC RESULTS (88.7% counted)

Bernie Sanders 60%

Hillary Clinton 38.4%

Donald Trump is way out in front in New Hampshire.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

This is the perfect result for Donald Trump, and not only because he won by a country mile. Just as importantly, all of his rivals in the so-called “establishment lane” were left bunched together.

Now John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie are all likely to remain in the race until at least the next primary in South Carolina, stealing votes from each other and dividing the anti-Trump segment of the Republican party.

That gives Trump, and even Tea Party favourite Ted Cruz, a golden chance to race out in front.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders’ whopping victory over Hillary Clinton will give him a temporary boost, but given his overwhelming reliance on white voters, he may struggle to maintain it when the campaign moves to more diverse states in the country’s south.

Still, there are undeniable danger signs for Clinton - particularly her failure to inspire young voters.

John Kasich had a great night.

TRUMP TRIUMPHANT

Donald Trump delivered exactly the sort of speech you’d expect from Donald Trump.

“We are going to do something so good and so fast and so strong and the world is going to respect us again, believe me,” he said.

“We’re going to make the deals for the American people.

“I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.

“We are going to win so much, you are going to be so happy, we are going to make America so great.”

Yep.

Trump’s speech went pretty much as expected.

SANDERS RELISHES VICTORY

Bernie Sanders was certainly enjoying his upset win over Hillary Clinton. In a long-winded, speech, he hit on all the usual topics, particularly income inequality.

“The people of New Hampshire have sent a profound message to the economic establishment, to the political establishment and, by the way, to the media establishment.” he said.

“Our great country was based on a simple principle, and that principle is fairness.

“It is not fair when have raw income and wealth inequality today than almost any major country on Earth.”

Bernie Sanders spoke for a veeeeeeery long time.

CLINTON CONCEDES

Hillary Clinton delivered a fiery concession speech, vowing to move on and win the Democratic nomination.

“I want to begin by congratulating Senator Sanders on his victory tonight,” Clinton said, before pivoting towards her plan for the rest of the campaign.

“We’re going to fight for every vote in every state,” she said.

“I know I’ve led a blessed life, but I also know what it’s like to stumble and fall ... it’s not whether you get knocked down that matters, it’s whether you get back up.”

Clinton certainly stumbled in New Hampshire, but expect her to come back strongly.

Clinton will be back again.

Earlier...

EXIT POLLS RELEASED

There are some interesting titbits in the exit polls, though of course, they have to be taken with a few grains of salt.

1. Forty-six per cent of Republican voters decided on their candidate inside the last three days. Only 22 per cent of Democrats did;

2. Sixty-five per cent of Republicans said recent debates were important in their decision. That’s bad news for Marco Rubio, who’s flubbed debate on the weekend has dominated political headlines since;

3. Only 14 per cent of Democrats want the next president to be “less liberal” thank Barack Obama. The party’s voters appear to be moving to the left;

4. Thirty-two percent of Democrats said the most important characteristic in a candidate is that they’re “honest and trustworthy”. Virtually all of those people picked Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton;

GOVERNORS’ DEATH MATCH

Three governors are still in the race, and they’re all vying for the same voters. Jeb! Bush (the son of one former president and brother of another), John Kasich and Chris Christie are all from the moderate wing of the Republican party, which means, if I may horrifically bastardise a Harry Potter quote, none can win while the others survive.

They’re also in direct competition with Senator Marco Rubio, whom we’ve discussed in more depth below.

The upshot is this: if any of the governors perform badly in New Hampshire, the pressure on them to quit the race will be enormous. But if any perform well, they’ll stick around for a while yet, and could even become Trump’s main rival for the nomination.

Jeb! Bush.

‘THE BOY IN THE BUBBLE’

One of the major Republican contenders has limped to election day after a disastrous debate performance on the weekend.

If you believe betting markets and political pundits, Senator Marco Rubio is the candidate who’s most likely to beat Trump. After rising to a strong third place finish in Iowa, Rubio was surging in New Hampshire as well before the embarrassing slip-up.

Marco Rubio struggled under the pressure of Saturday’s debate.

One of the young senator’s rivals, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, used the debate to attack his lack of experience.

“You have not been involved in a consequential decision where you had to be held accountable. You just simply haven’t,” Christie said.

“I like Marco Rubio, and he’s a smart person and a good guy, but he simply does not have the experience to be president of the United States and make these decisions.”

Christie was implicitly comparing Rubio to Barack Obama — not exactly a popular man among Republicans — who had a similar level of experience when he ran for president in 2007. Rubio responded with a pre-rehearsed riff on Obama’s failures. It went down well enough with the crowd, but then Christie struck again.

“Marco, the thing is this. When you’re president of the United States, when you’re governor of a state, the memorised 25-second speech where you talk about how great America is at the end of it doesn’t solve one problem for one person,” he said.

Christie knocked his more fancied rival to the canvas.

As the back-and-forth continued, Rubio responded in the worst possible way. He repeated the same “25-second speech” three more times, emphatically proving Christie’s point.

Christie had spent the days leading up to the debate deriding the 44-year-old Rubio as “the boy in the bubble”, but he’s picked up a few more damaging nicknames since, such as “Marcobot” and “Marco Roboto”. They all imply the same thing: Rubio’s a robot who just recycles the same sound bites over and over.

Rubio’s polls started to drop after the debate. Now, instead of powering into a clear second place, he’s struggling to stay ahead of the chasing pack and stop his campaign from derailing completely.

HILLARY’S IN TROUBLE

New Hampshire has been friendly territory for Hillary Clinton in the past. Back in 2007, she beat soon-to-be president Barack Obama there. But this time, in the two-person race for the Democratic nomination, she’s anticipating a heavy loss to the 74-year-old senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders.

Sanders enters New Hampshire’s primary at 54.5 per cent in the RealClearPolitics polling average, compared to Clinton’s 41.2 per cent. She has vowed to “keep working until the last vote is cast and counted”, but all she can really do is limit the damage.

Bernie Sanders might struggle after New Hampshire, but he’s expected to win today.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Sanders poses a long term threat. His strength in the first two states on the primary calendar, which both have an abnormal amount white voters, may not be reflected when the campaign moves to more racially diverse states where Clinton is stronger.

WHY NEW HAMPSHIRE’S SO IMPORTANT

The New Hampshire primary will give its winners momentum as they head into the next contests, in South Carolina and Nevada. Those who fare poorly will likely see donations dry up and face pressure to withdraw from the race.

While critics argue New Hampshire is too small and white to play such a major role in picking presidents, its defenders say the country is well-served because the primary requires close contact with voters, not just name-recognition or advertising cash.

It’s also a decent bellwether state. In the last 10 presidential elections, eight Republicans and seven Democrats have gone on to become their party’s nominee after winning New Hampshire.