Joe Biden will pull out of 2024 presidential race, JPMorgan predicts

President Joe Biden will withdraw from the 2024 presidential race due to ill health, a leading analyst from JPMorgan has predicted.

Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race, a top JPMorgan strategist says.

The prediction is among ‘ten surprises’ contained in Michael Cembalest’s ‘Eye on the Market | Outlook 2024’ report.

President Biden will withdraw sometime between Super Tuesday (the day when many US states hold primary elections) and the November election, according to Mr Cembalest, who is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management.

He said the US president would cite ill health as the reason.

US President Joe Biden. Picture: AFP

According to the most recent routine check of Mr Biden’s health conducted by physician Dr Kevin O’Connor, the 81-year-old is generally in good health.

There have been calls from sections of the left and the right for the president to withdraw.

Currently, there are no indications President Biden will follow the path of President Lyndon B. Johnson, who famously exited from the 1968 race.

Mr Cembalest predicted that the president would pass “the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”

Former US President and Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump. Picture: AFP

The Democratic Party doesn’t have standout alternatives waiting in the wings, although Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom have been named as potential candidates.

Cembalest also cited President Biden’s low approval ratings, which languish at 65.1 per cent disapproval to 38.8 per cent approval in the latest FiveThirtyEight polling, a popularity level lower than Donald Trump’s at an analogous time during his presidency.

The analyst said President Biden’s unpopularity may be due to his “inauguration coinciding with the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and a reopening US economy”.

Cembalest also predicted that the US dollar would remain stable as the currency of choice for international trade and that the Department of Justice or the Federal Trade Commission would win a “big antitrust” case against either Google, Amazon, Meta or T-Mobile.

A Cruise driverless vehicle trial taking place in San Francisco.

Further, he wrote that a driverless car backlash would take place.

“LiDAR (autonomous vehicle technology) stocks have collapsed by 85 per cent from their peak, and I don’t think a rebound is imminent,” he wrote.

“I believe a possible backlash is coming from citizens who believe, as in the case of the despised urban scooter plague, that convenience for some results in dangers and inconvenience for others.”

Mr Cembalest also cast his eye to Argentine following the election of firebrand President Javier Milei.

He forecast that one of President Milei’s big policies — the Argentine dollarisation — would fail if implemented.

Argentina's new president Javier Milei. Picture: AFP

As for Russia’s war against Ukraine, he predicted that it would continue through 2024 with no ceasefire.

“Despite Russia reportedly losing 87 per cent of its pre-war active troops (315,000 killed or injured) and two-thirds of its tanks, there is no ceasefire and the war drags on for another year,” he speculated.

US banks, particularly regional banks, will do well this year with stable or rising price to book values, he wrote.

“Despite challenges related to underwater Treasuries, commercial real estate writedowns, competition for deposits and slowing loan growth, US regional bank price to book ratios remain at 1.0x or higher in 2024 and widen the gap vs Europe,” Cembalest added.

He warned that major US cities would face electricity and natural gas outages due to chronic underinvestment and the retirement of dispatchable power generation.

Finally, Cembalest predicted that new technology would allow the rollout of an inhaled Covid-19 vaccine that would sharply reduce transmission.

“Several inhaled and tracheally administered proteins are under development and have already elicited robust immune and T cell responses against Covid in non-human primates. I suspect one will be approved in 2024.”