Jacinda Ardern: Huge decision NZ PM has to make on August 17
There are more new cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand, adding to stress felt by a leader on the verge of making a decision that could seal her fate.
If she has time this weekend, while dealing with New Zealand’s resurgent coronavirus crisis, Jacinda Ardern may notice a date circled on her calendar: Monday, August 17.
On that day, the New Zealand Prime Minister has to make a decision. A decision that could mean the difference between her party, Labour, sailing to a victory of historic proportions in next month’s general election – or a far shakier route to remaining PM.
The choice is between keeping to the September 19 election date. Or scrapping it.
Any delay, an expert on New Zealand politics has told news.com.au, runs the risk Ms Ardern’s electoral chances could “soften”.
For the PM, it really is a date with destiny.
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On Tuesday, Ms Ardern broke the news that following 102 cases of no community transmission, COVID-19 was once more circulating among her so-called “team of five million” New Zealanders. There is still no definitive answer as to how a family from Auckland’s southern suburbs caught the virus.
She immediately announced a three-day lockdown of Greater Auckland which was extended by a further 12 days on Friday when the Government confirmed the country now had 48 active cases.
It’s thrown the original election plan into the air. That would have seen, on Wednesday of last week, Ms Ardern ask the Governor-General, the Queen’s representative in New Zealand, to dissolve parliament.
That would have then led the Governor-General to issue a writ confirming the general election for Saturday, September 19. A five-week election campaign would officially have begun.
Ms Ardern had already unofficially kicked off Labour’s campaign last Sunday with a rousing rally at Auckland Town Hall where she declared it would be a “COVID election” based on the Government’s handling of the pandemic and its plan to get the country out of the financial morass the virus has caused.
“When people ask, is this a COVID election, my answer is yes, it is,” she told the crowd, adding, “It has been our new reality and one that the team of five million have made work in the most extraordinary way”.
HOW ELECTION CAN BE DELAYED
Tuesday’s revelation of new cases of COVID-19 put the kybosh on campaigning immediately.
But Ms Ardern also announced she would no longer look to dissolve parliament as planned. That decision, she said, would be made this Monday.
“The writ has not yet been issued (so) there is not yet any legal requirement that September 19 is our polling day,” Andrew Geddis, a law professor at New Zealand’s Otago University, wrote on websiteThe Conversation.
“Should the PM conclude the planned election date is no longer tenable, she can simply nominate another Saturday instead. It will have to be a Saturday, because by law New Zealand elections must fall on that day.
“Otherwise, she is free to pick any date until early December, by which point the law says an election must be held as parliament’s three-year term elapses.”
Ms Ardern could try and postpone parliament’s dissolution and yet stick with a September 19 election. After all, it’s still five weeks away and she may want to see if the country can pin down the current outbreak.
There’re problems with that approach though.
“If candidates are going to be nominated, ballot papers readied and distributed, and polling places set up and staffed, then a decision on the election date really has to be made early next week,” said Prof Geddis.
“Delaying much beyond that point will not leave enough time to put the actual mechanics of the election in place for September 19.”
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RISK IN DELAYING POLL
Politics professor at New Zealand’s Massey University, Richard Shaw, told news.com.au that Ms Ardern’s ideal scenario would be to keep to the planned schedule.
“If the election is held on September 19 then that could boost Ardern’s polling because it will feed into the narrative that good systems were in place, it’s been competently managed.
“If it’s delayed, there might be a hope (from the opposition) that there will be a softening of Labour’s figures that people won’t be bothered to lockdown and they’ll blame Ardern.”
Indeed, the opposition National Party are desperate for the election to be delayed.
Both current opposition leader Judith Collins, only newly installed, and a previous party leader Simon Bridges have called for the planned to be scrapped.
Let’s be honest about how problematic a 19 Sept election in under 40 days is. I’ve just cancelled public meetings and a lot of volunteers doorknocking. Meanwhile, Labour, while suspending campaigning, continues with all machinery of Govt and thus the power of the airwaves.
— Simon Bridges (@simonjbridges) August 11, 2020
A recent pre-outbreak poll by researchers Roy Morgan that put Labour on 54 per cent of the vote to Nationals 27 per cent could also have something to with the opposition’s enthusiasm for a delay.
Another poll last month had Labour on course for as many as 77 seats in the 120 seat House of Representatives, more than enough to allow the party to govern in its own right.
“The opposition are basically just waiting for something to go wrong now. If it transpires there was a (government) breakdown, that might bounce back on Labour,” Prof Shaw said.
That is no hollow worry for the PM. Ms Ardern has already been stung by revelations in June that some infected travellers were allowed to leave hotel quarantine early and others weren’t tested. It was a bungle which led to the resignation of her Health Minister. If that happens again, it’s on her.
On Thursday, Winston Peters, the Deputy Prime Minister and leader of Labour’s coalition partner New Zealand First, suggested the current outbreak may indeed be due to another breakdown in quarantine.
He admitted that theory was based simply on what a journalist had said. But if it comes to pass that the Government has, yet again, stuffed up quarantine, it will play into the National Party narrative that Labour can’t be trusted.
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HOBSON’S CHOICE
One option is for parliament to be dissolved and the planned date kept, with a view to moving the election if the situation doesn’t clear up.
However, once the writs are issued it’s no longer up to the PM. It would be up to the Chief Electoral Officer to make the call to delay based on “an unforeseen or unavoidable disruption”.
“Voting can be put on hold for an initial period of three days, with the suspension able to be extended for a week at a time following consultation with the prime minister and the leader of the opposition,” said Prof Geddis.
“There’s no limit to how long such a suspension can last; the normal election timetable is suspended while it is in place.”
Choose to go ahead with the election in September and Ms Ardern will be betting she will get plaudits for the handling of the new outbreak. But the risk is it may seem foolhardy to potentially have people queuing outside polling places if a pandemic is in full swing.
Delay and it’s almost an admission Labour has lost control of the situation. And what if damaging revelations about the handling of the crisis emerge?
On August 17, Ms Ardern has a Hobson’s choice that could be crucial in deciding her political future.
“That she’s delayed the dissolution until Monday is to give her time to think about the extent of an outbreak and see if they can get on top of it,” said Prof Shaw.
“On Monday we could see the election confirmed. But I don’t think that will happen.”
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