It’s all but over for ScoMo: Senior insider says government ‘on life support’

CHAOS continues to grip Canberra and a senior insider says it’s “all but over” for Scott Morrison’s damaged government.

SCOTT Morrison was hoping for a good week.

The new Prime Minister would’ve expected some clear air after the chaos of the leadership crisis, which toppled Malcolm Turnbull and thrust him into the job.

An enormous task of repairing the deep damage caused and convincing Australians politics is not irreparably broken was to have begun on Monday.

But instead, the circus rolled on.

Revelations about Peter Dutton’s questionable intervention in the visa issues of au pairs employed by his friends were a daily distraction.

So too were allegations of serious bullying by female Liberal MPs, which led to Julia Banks quitting in spectacular fashion.

Now, a senior source from the highest levels of the executive arm of government, who spoke to news.com.au on the condition of anonymity, has delivered a scathing insider’s perspective.

With more than a decade’s experience in the halls of Parliament, the source says the government is “terminal” and now on life support.

“A change of government is inevitable. I think they’ve got very, very little chance of being re-elected,” the source said.

Canberra is quietly preparing for a change of government, with the view that the government has little to no hope. Picture: AAP

In public service offices across the nation’s capital, senior officials have started to quietly prepare for the inevitability of a Labor government led by Bill Shorten.

“They won’t be doing anything in a formal nature, of course, but they’ll be readying themselves for a change of government,” the source said.

“They’ll have discussions about positioning their preferred policies to get them ready (for a new government). Few will be willing to put their necks out by giving up their best policy positions and risking their relationships with stakeholders.

“This government has another eight or nine months to go, so no one will jeopardise relationships for policy when it’s going to be so short-lived.”

A Newspoll conducted in the wake of the Liberal Party’s civil war, which saw Mr Dutton challenge the leadership twice before Mr Morrison’s success on the final stretch, showed voters were fed up.

Support for the Coalition crashed to its lowest point in a decade, with a primary vote of just 33 per cent. Labor is lengths ahead in the two-party preferred stakes, leading 56 to 44.

If this trend continues, the government would be wiped out at an election.

The leadership chaos and continuing ramifications of it have ‘seriously damaged’ the public’s faith in the institution of government.

“The overwhelming sense is that the coup attempt last week was the most ham-fisted attempt anyone can remember. It was very unprofessional and caused a lot of damage,” the source said.

“All of the carry-on by the Dutton camp about needing to do this to get the show back on the road, to restore the community’s confidence in government, has not eventuated.”

The Liberal Party will also struggle to hold the inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth, vacated by Mr Turnbull, with a poll showing Labor has a good chance of snatching it.

In Ms Banks’ seat in Victoria, which she will not recontest at the next election, Labor is likely to regain it.

“Julia Banks is the only person who picked up a seat for the government at the last election. If not for her, they would’ve had a minority government,” the source said.
A further exodus of MPs is likely, with question marks over whether a disillusioned Craig Laundy will run again. Other marginal government MPs are nervous that their already precarious positions are now dire.

“It begs the question, what was the point of it all?” the source said.

Zed Seselja (right) was one of Peter Dutton’s main campaigners during the leadership chaos. Picture: Kym Smith

Michael Sukkar helped lead the Dutton camp’s failed attempt to snatch the Liberal Party leadership. Picture: AAP

“(Senator Mathias) Cormann was pressed on this on the day of coup … he couldn’t articulate it very well, and then in the end he said it was about restoring team unity.

“Well, you know, I would’ve thought the source of team unity, the inspiration of it, was the fact you’re being paid between $250,000 and $350,000 a year by the taxpayer.

“You’re earning a very handsome salary to do work. It’s the most self-indulgent, reckless and selfish thing they could’ve done.”

The source squares the blame for the government’s disastrous position firmly on Mr Dutton, the Home Affairs Minister and Brisbane politician.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton’s ‘ham-fisted’ attempted coup is to blame for the government’s ‘terminal’ position. Picture: Kym Smith

Egged on and assisted by former PM Tony Abbott, he successfully destabilised the government to the point where a spill was declared. And then he failed to find support — twice.

“What would Dutton have been like in government? If he couldn’t manage the votes of 45 members of the House of Representatives, how the hell would he have managed a government of such extraordinary moving parts?” the source said.

“The PM is required to make almost instantaneous decisions on very complex matters. Dutton has been shown to have had really flawed judgment.”

The public service has lost considerable faith in Senator Cormann, who supported Mr Turnbull until Thursday when he jumped to the Dutton camp.

“He was either so easily tricked or deceived by the Dutton camp, or he was a willing participant who sought to trick others,” the source said.

“Cormann is very much a reduced figure as a result of this. His authority within government has been substantially affected.”

Julia Banks quit in spectacular fashion this week, hitting out at the ‘bullying and intimidation’ tactics used by Peter Dutton’s camp. Picture: AAP

In the weeks before Mr Turnbull rolled Mr Abbott in 2015 and became leader, internal Liberal Party polling showed the Coalition could not win the next election.

“They were in a lot of trouble and in line for a solid walloping, and Turnbull got them over the line — barely, but back in government,” the source said.

But in this challenge, that electoral imperative wasn’t there. Mr Turnbull was preferred PM over Mr Shorten and he had a shot of clinging on to power.

This time around, it was about “indulging personal interests and prejudices”, the source said.

“And what are the consequences of that? It’s the loss of a PM who was at least competitive and certainly resonated in the two largest political states, being NSW and Victoria.”

Peter Dutton’s au pair visa saga threatens to be an ongoing distraction for Scott Morrison and the government. Picture: AFP

Hanging over Mr Dutton’s head are lingering questions over his eligibility to sit in Parliament and a Senate inquiry into his conduct in the au pair saga.

The prime minister’s office is likely to be forced into an investigation into the bullying claims, with word that more female MPs are threatening to walk if action isn’t taken. The perpetrators of that bullying from the Dutton camp have maintained anonymity, for now, but press gallery journalists are preparing to name them.

It all adds up to ongoing and calamity for a government that can least afford it, sinking its very slim chances of maintaining power even further.

“I don’t think Dutton and his camp are doing this deliberately — I think it’s just their inherent incompetence.”

- Continue the conversation with Shannon Molloy on Twitter @sleemol