How NZ opposition leader Judith Collins plans to beat Jacinda Ardern
In weeks, New Zealanders will decide whether Jacinda Ardern will remain as their PM. It had been a shoo-in until this woman turned up.
And just like that, Jacinda Ardern’s hope of smoothly sliding into a second term as prime minister, buoyed by New Zealand’s success as batting away COVID-19, are up in the air after the opposition installed one of the country’s most divisive politicians as its leader.
Nicknamed “Crusher”, Judith Collins’ elevation to the position of alternative PM last Wednesday surprised everyone – not least her own National Party.
Whereas other opposition leaders, and Labour’s Ardern has seen off a few of those, have shied away from directly attacking the PM, the gloves are off when it comes to Collins.
“She won’t take steps back, she won’t apologise, she is a formidable operator,” politics professor Richard Shaw of New Zealand’s Massey University told news.com.au.
Kiwis now had a “very stark choice” at the election due in just two months’ time, he said.
But the well-known Collins carries “plenty of baggage” including around some comments on race. She undoubtedly makes the September poll more fascinating, however she could just as easily drive some voters towards rather than away from Ardern, said Prof Shaw.
RELATED: Jacinda Ardern reveals NZ travel bubble with Australia is on ‘the horizon’
Up until May, Ardern had been expecting to face Simon Bridges at the ballot box. But crashing poll numbers during the pandemic saw National – similar to Australia’s Liberals – swap leaders for the relatively unknown Todd Muller. After just seven weeks in the post, Muller resigned citing health issues.
Step forward Collins, a veteran of Kiwi politics who has been a minister many times over.
“It was a catastrophic for National. They are eight weeks out from an election and the reason they went for her is they need experience and name recognition and Collins has that in spades,” Prof Shaw said.
Collins’ distinctive nickname, Crusher, comes from a 2009 plan during her stint as police minister to literally crush the cars of reoffending hoons.
“I’m not sure how many cars were crushed; the boy racers haven’t gone away but the moniker has stuck.”
Collins has revelled in the name.
“I am hoping the National Party will collectively crush the other lot come September 19,” she said last week.
RELATED: Adored by the world, Ardern is in trouble back home
COLLINS’ UPHILL TASK TO BEAT ARDERN
On paper, that doesn’t seem a difficult feat. National actually have more MPs than Labour but Arden’s skill at formulating a coalition with the conservative New Zealand First party and an agreement with the Greens gave her the numbers at the last poll in 2017.
But that was a lifetime and three opposition leaders ago. Since then Ardern’s popularity has skyrocketed as has Labour’s polling.
Prof Shaw said Kiwis had embraced the PM’s language of compassion and kindness after the triple whammy of the Christchurch massacre, White Island volcano eruption and pandemic.
Indeed, almost to a fault, in that discussion around the effectiveness of Labour’s politics, and there have been blunders, has got little traction.
At the same time, National leaders have been wary of attacking Ardern directly for fear of a public backlash.
Collins, it seems, couldn’t care less on that front. Even before she became party leader, she was accusing Ardern of being a “liar” over bungles in the hotel quarantine system.
This week, she said she would give credit to Ardern, “where credit is due”.
“But there is no chance at all that I’m going to let (her) get away with any nonsense when it comes to the economy and doing her job.”
RELATED: NZ National Party in turmoil again as senior MPs quit
Collins has implored voters to stop being star struck with Ardern and instead ponder “who can be a better bank manager in a recession?”
Prof Shaw said Collins might have more success in attacking Ardern precisely because she is a woman.
“Collins is a clever woman and a sharp operator,” he said, pointing to her ability to succinctly hammer a message home, something lacking in her predecessors.
“This could be a risk for Ardern. At question time, Collins will have to land those punches and Ardern will have to ride them out.
“Ardern has never really been subjected to an effective and concerted onslaught. That will happen and it will be interesting to see what the public reaction is,” Prof Shaw said.
“I think Collins will move the dial.
“But I’m not sure which way,” he added. Part of the reason is her repeated, and seemingly entirely unnecessary, forays into race.
COLLINS’ COMMENTS ON RACE
In November, four Kiwi MPs of colour put forward a bill that would ban female genital mutilation.
In a subsequent tweet, Ms Collins wrote: “I am a woman of colour – the colour white – and I fully support a ban on this mutilation inflicted on women”.
Just last week, she said she was “an ethnic minority in my own home” due to the fact her husband is Samoan – Chinese.
That comment came in a discussion on radio about whether her front bench would be diverse. Not by design, she told Magic Talk host Peter Williams.
“I am someone who believes … you pick the right people for the job and not worry too much about how they look, what their gender is or anything else,” reported NewsHub.
“We‘ve got great people of many ethnicities in our party – and by the way, they’re all qualified to be there on their own merits.”
In May, when quizzed about Nationals all-pakeha (European heritage) leadership, she told reporters “is there something wrong with me being white?”
The comments seemed out of touch given race is such a fraught issue.
“She gets defensive about ethnicity,” said Prof Shaw.
“She has that view of meritocracy that if you achieve, well it’s because you’ve earned it and that will resonate with some.”
It’s also worth noting Collins voted for the legalisation of cannabis and gay marriage.
BOOMER JACINDA
On news website Stuff, columnist Verity Johnson summed the new opposition leader up as the “oddly charismatic, Marmite-level polarising, battle-scarred prize fighter”.
“She’s the only contender with the right mix of personality and credibility who could land a few punches on reigning world heavyweight Jacinda.
“That means that the election’s gone from being a walk in the park for Labour to a moderately interesting fight night that is worth tuning in for.”
Ms Johnson said Collins was the “boomer Jacinda” but appeared to have completely abandoned voters under 30.
Her language, far removed from Ardern’s soothing and empathetic statements and cosy late-night Facebook chats, could “alienate” some voters, said Prof Shaw, even those who support National.
IN IT TO WIN IT
Given Ardern’s huge lead in the polls, Collins could paint an election defeat, that saw them lose just a handful of seats, as a success given Labour’s poll lead. She could look to set them up for a proper crack in three years when voters may have tired of Ardern.
“But Collins isn’t saying that. She’s not saying ‘this is a salvage operation’, she’s going in boots and all to win, and that’s a risk.”
Prof Shaw said the biggest loser from Collins’ takeover could be a draining of support to NZ First, whose controversial leader Winston Peters is currently deputy PM.
That, in turn, could allow Labour to form a simpler coalition with the more like-minded Greens.
“Ardern has remained completely above the fray this week,” said Prof Shaw.
“Collins will try and drag her into it but she is facing a prodigiously popular prime minister. My money is still on Ardern and a Labour-Greens ticket.”
Albo to get $14.5k pay rise in weeks
Politicians are set to increase their annual salary by thousands from July 1, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pocketing a boost of nearly $15,000.
Turnbull goes rogue with dark warning
Malcolm Turnbull has never hesitated to rip Donald Trump on the world stage, but his latest has warning cut a much bleaker tone.
Albo urges Aus to ‘chill out’ on cancel culture
The Prime Minister says no one would run for office if they were held accountable for things they said 20 years ago.