Get ready for an election year that defies prediction

FORMER PM Tony Abbott is only in stage one of his excruciating decline. He really doesn’t want to reach stage three.

Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott during Question Time at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas) NO ARCHIVING

A DOUBLE dare on a double dissolution and an unfocused debate on tax changes are already pointing to an election year that defies prediction — just two days into parliamentary sittings.

Add to that, the high-profile self absorption of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, questioning of Bill Shorten’s leadership of the Opposition, and a Budget needing both spending cuts and new revenue sources.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will require all the agility he has wished on the nation generally to foresee the outcomes of these matters.

THE DREADED THREE-STAGE DECLINE

Most Liberal MPs have moved on from the events of last September when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. Some, such as Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, are looking forward to their own, long-term, leadership plans post-Turnbull.

But, the majority does not include Mr Abbott who, perhaps understandably, is dealing with his place in history and that of his short-run government.

Mr Abbott is entitled to seek a role in the Turnbull government as well as more gratitude from his colleagues, but he is in danger of being too petulant and of entering a three-stage decline.

In the first stage, the petulance is taken as serious and its targets attempt to placate.

In the second stage, the petulance becomes susceptible to parody, and that is when it really hurts. But perhaps not as much as stage three, when the one-man campaign becomes tedious and the central character is sidelined as pointless.

Mr Abbott is in stage one, although some political cartoonists have him firmly in stage two.

Tony Abbott is already susceptible to parody. Cartoon: Mark Knight

ELECTION BLUFF

The Prime Minister has said an early election of both Houses of Parliament — a double dissolution — will be called if the Senate does not put creation of the Australian Building and Construction Commission into law.

If the Labor Opposition and the Senate cross bench call his bluff on this and continue to block the industry oversight body — which would keep a particular eye on unions — Mr Turnbull would have no choice.

He could not argue his threat was qualified. He could not back away from it without appearing weak or worse. Labor will not retreat — so far there is no sign the PM will get the backing of the six Senate cross benchers he needs at a minimum.

We will know more at the end of the month when the Senate gets to the legislation itself.

Mr Turnbull might prefer an August/September/October election as scheduled, which would be safer for the Government. But he now is crammed into a political corner he built and constructed himself.

Malcolm Turnbull would prefer an election between August and October.

GET READY TO PAY MORE TAX

It is one of the lurking positives for the Government as it wrestles with demands from state premiers for extra hospital and school funding, and businesses pleading for lower corporate rates.

There are strong indications in opinion polling and in targeted focus group surveys that voters accept the Budget needs fixing, and that they will have to make sacrifices. Not huge ones, and they must be accompanied by protections for the disadvantaged, but sacrifices nevertheless.

A remarkable 37 per cent of those surveyed by Newspoll this week reported they would accept an increase in the GST to 15 per cent.

Close to 40 per cent endorsing a tax increase? Astonishing.

And today The Australian newspaper says 62 per cent of voters would agree to higher taxes — or lower tax concessions — on wealthy superannuation accounts which are aimed at tax minimisation rather than retirement savings.

The superannuation proposition originally came from Labor, and previously was dismissed by Treasurer Scott Morrison as “grousing” of individuals’ savings.

A GST rise is not Labor policy. The Opposition sees it as regressive with low income earners bearing the most pain.

The debate currently is hypothetical because the Government has not presented a proposal. But the electoral mood is aiding it.

Malcolm Turnbull during Question Time. Picture: Kym Smith

A VOTE ON SAME-SEX MARRIAGE

We will be asked to vote in a non-binding plebiscite on this matter within 12 months of the next election. And no matter how we vote, the Parliament could decide not to pass the associated changes to the Marriage Act.

So this poses the prospect of a $160 million opinion survey on marriage equality which a significant number of MPs — Coalition in particular, but also Labor — will ignore. Liberals and Nationals will be free to vote as they wish, no matter the outcome.

The numbers, for any change to the Marriage Act, are not there in Parliament at the moment, and still might not be after a plebiscite, should the Coalition maintain its Lower House majority.

Holding the plebiscite post election reduces the danger to the Coalition of the matter becoming an election campaign issue in urban seats.

But there will be a pre-election showdown over the legislation required to establish the plebiscite. Labor and the Greens believe the Parliament should decide, and the matter not be outsourced. They might fight the legislative process right from the start.

Erin Reddy and Dee Campbell in Dublin last year when gay marriage was legalised. Picture: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

CABINET RESHUFFLE: WHO’S GOING WHERE?

Mr Turnbull is heading for his second big ministerial redesign in five months as he accounts for the departure of former Cities Minister Jamie Briggs and the sidelining of Mal Brough until the Ashby inquiry is completed.

Further, Nationals Leader Warren Truss is expected to announce before Easter he is stepping down. Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce is likely to take the leadership and inject a more aggressive Nationals’ role into the Coalition arrangements.

That could include more and bigger ministries for him and his colleagues. That will complicate the gender/party/faction balancing act Mr Turnbull will have to perform.

Jamie Briggs resigned from the junior ministry after an incident with a public servant in a Hong Kong bar. Picture: AAP Image/Mick Tsikas

DON’T COMPLETELY DISREGARD THE LABOR LEADER

Bill Shorten will continue as Opposition Leader but not without growing sideline questioning of his performance and effectiveness.

The Government also sees his record as a trade union leader as a weapon against him and Labor generally.

However, it could be premature to write off Mr Shorten totally, even if the current calculation is that he cannot win the election.

It will be a fascinating election campaign with the former trade union heavy against the former merchant banker. When it comes to public speaking, Mr Shorten has climbed on more stumps than Mr Turnbull has had bus rides.

The Labor leader might not be Mr Excitement, but he is methodical and able to refine a message. If people are tuning in to that message — and there are doubts on that score at the moment — he has the capacity to upset the Government’s run.