Georgia Senate run-off race could have major implications for Donald Trump

The former US president is desperate for a sign he has enough support to win in 2024. But a crucial election today could see him lose either way.

Former president Donald Trump could be facing a fresh “humiliation” on Tuesday (US time) as voters in a key state go to the polls.

The Republicans’ lacklustre performance in last month’s midterm elections has been blamed by many on Mr Trump.

Specifically his backing of fringe candidates, his incessant and unfounded claims the 2020 election was rigged and the rolling back of abortion rights which occurred due to Supreme Court judges he nominated.

The 2024 presidential candidate badly wants Republican Herschel Walker, who he has vocally backed, to win Tuesday’s Senate race in Georgia to try to claw back some electoral credibility.

The race is tight, but opinion polls have suggested the Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock has a small lead and is likely to retain the seat.

Donald Trump needs to be able to point to a win. Picture: Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

The midterm elections may have been in November but a failure of any candidate in Georgia to get more than 50 per cent of the vote has led to Tuesday’s run-off poll.

The Senate is currently tied at 50 seats each to the Republicans and Democrats. But Vice President Kamala Harris has the casting vote in a tie, so effectively the house is in Democrat hands. But a win in Georgia would make the Democrats’ majority more comfortable.

The voters of Georgia have a choice between two polar opposite men.

Born the eleventh of 12 children, Mr Warnock grew up in poverty. Even after his election, the Democrat remained as a senior pastor at a Baptist church.

Georgia voters wait to cast their ballots in the run-off election. Picture: Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP

Meanwhile, the Republicans’ Mr Walker is considered one of the best players in the history of American college football – a near-religious institution in the South – and went on to have a stellar career in the National Football League.

Mr Walker, who is staunchly anti-abortion even in cases of rape, has been the subject of several recent scandals, after being accused of paying for abortions for two women he had relationships with.

Historically a Republican state, Georgia took America by surprise when voters chose Joe Biden over Mr Trump in the 2020 presidential elections and then sent two Democrats to the Senate two months later in another run-off.

Mr Biden has urged Georgians to turn out and vote Democrat.

“It really is critical,” the President has said.

A Warnock victory would help consolidate the Democrats’ paper-thin Senate majority and allow them to wield greater influence in key congressional committees.

But Republicans see the Georgia Senate seat as a chance to boost their ability to block Mr Biden’s policies, having won back control of the House of Representatives – although the Republican’s expected “red wave” was more of a damp squib.

Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images/AFP

Georgia Republican senate candidate Herschel Walker. Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images/AFP

Trump absent from campaign

Determined to win the race, Democrats have called on former president Barack Obama, the most charismatic leader in the party, who campaigned in Atlanta last week.

For the Republicans, former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley told Fox News on Monday that Republicans needed to get out and vote.

“If Republicans learned anything, red waves don’t happen – turnout happens. We need turnout tomorrow in Georgia.”

But despite Mr Trump’s backing of Mr Walker – which helped him become the candidate – he’s barely been seen on the run-off campaign trail.

That said, neither has President Biden, whose popular support is nothing to crow about either.

Following the Republicans’ underperformance in November, Mr Trump hasn’t held an in-person rally for Mr Walker.

He appears to have heeded the call not to be too heavily involved – that in a deeply divided state, his presence could hinder rather than help Mr Walker.

Nonetheless, there are worries his actions may have already damaged the Republican Senate candidate.

Many Republicans pleaded with Mr Trump not to announce his presidential run until after the Georgia Senate run-off, fearful it would suck oxygen from the campaign.

He ignored the advice. And it did overshadow Mr Walker’s campaign.

During Mr Trump’s 2024 announcement he specifically mentioned Mr Walker.

“We must all work very hard for a gentleman and a great person named Herschel Walker, a fabulous human being who loves our country and will be a great United States senator,” he said at Mar-a-Lago.

Possibly. Possibly not. Picture: Drew Angerer/Getty Images/AFP

‘Humiliation’ in Georgia for Trump

But Mr Trump’s electoral record in Georgia isn’t great. He did win the state in the 2016 presidential election. Since then things have gone downhill.

He lost the state in the 2020 election and notoriously tried to pressure Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp to “find” enough votes for the result to be overturned.

Weeks later, following Mr Kemp’s refusal to “find” votes, a Senate election saw two Georgia Democrats, including Mr Warnock, head to D.C.

This year, Mr Trump – still smarting from Mr Kemp’s unwillingness to bend to his will – failed to get his alternative pick for governor on the ballot paper. Mr Kemp retained his position comfortably.

“Trump’s humiliation was becoming a bit of a pattern in Georgia,” CNN’s Stephen Collinson said.

“On Tuesday, Trump’s run of Georgia futility could continue unless Herschel Walker can drag the MAGA banner over the line.”

Georgia’s Republican Governor Brian Kemp is no fan of Trump. Picture: Joe Raedle/Getty Images/AFP

If Walker wins, it may not be due to Trump

Even if Mr Walker does win, it’s not clear how much of a boost that will truly be to Mr Trump. One win won’t cancel out the fact the Republicans squandered a chance to retake the Senate against an unpopular President in Joe Biden.

The party will recall how they managed to lose the Pennsylvania Senate seat. The party’s candidate was Trump pick, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.

Indeed, a Walker victory may have more to do with his backing by Governor Kemp.

“Donald Trump is responsible for … us not taking back both chambers this year,” one Republican Georgian source told conservative news outlet the Washington Examiner.

“Let’s be honest: Walker now looks like one of the worst candidates ever, and a miraculous upset win [on] Tuesday will be because Georgia voters absolutely love Governor Kemp, not the former president.”

But if Mr Walker does win, expect Mr Trump to make the most if it in the hope it will bolster his 2024 campaign.

– with AFP