Donald Trump and US midterms 2018: Implications for Australia

THE clock is ticking. The day that will make or break Donald Trump’s presidency is coming, and it could leave him completely hamstrung.

IT’S a day that could make or break Donald Trump.

And if November’s midterm elections don’t go in the Republican Party’s favour, the President of the United States could find himself in a tough situation.

However, the outcome of the US midterm elections won’t have repercussion for just Mr Trump.

In fact, the midterms could have huge ramifications for Australia, a new report by the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney has found.

In the report, Australia and the 2018 US Midterm Elections: A Primer, authors Matilda Steward and Dougal Robinson warn the Republican party will be deeply divided even if it retains majorities in both the House and Senate.

While the Democrats are narrowly favoured to regain the House of Reps and Republicans are expected to control the Senate, Mr Trump could still be left hamstrung.

This means Mr Trump will struggle to deliver on its legislative agenda prior to the 2020 presidential election.

The “deepening polarisation between the two major parties will limit the US government’s ability to reach bipartisan compromises on foreign and defence policy, pass the federal budget on time, and avoid government shutdowns,” the report reads.

AUSTRALIA IMPLICATION

Mr Robinson said as the parties became more polarised, this would be felt outside the US.

“Both parties are becoming more sceptical of multilateral trade agreements, which will continue after the midterms,” Mr Robinson said.

“Consequently, Congress is highly unlikely to support — let alone vote in favour of — US re-entry to the trans-Pacific Partnership.”

According to the report, Congress hasn’t indicated there’s a political will to pass a multilateral trade agreement in the near future.

Congress could face more shutdowns and polarisation following the November election Picture: J. Scott Applewhite/AP

“President Trump’s strident opposition to the TPP and other multilateral trade deals has led to a distinct cooling in Republican members’ views on trade,” the report reads.

Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Japan are among the 11 Pacific nations that have signed up to the controversial pact, which was thrown into disarray last year when Mr Trump pulled the US out.

In an interview with CNBC from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in January, the President said he would reconsider re-entering the TPP if he was confident the US got a better deal.

“I would do the TPP if we made a much better deal than we had. We had a horrible deal,” Mr Trump said.

US defence and strategic decisions could also be affected by a polarised Congress.

“Consequently, the US military has been operating on a series of Continuing Resolutions that give senior leaders no certainty over funding, leaving them hamstrung in their ability to make long-term strategic decisions,” the report reads.

POLARISED CONGRESS

The report’s authors go on to suggest Republicans and Democrats will become even more polarised and the midterms will further shape their ideological orientation as the parties shift further to the right and left.

Republicans, they say, will remain internally divided between establishment and nationalist wings.

“Deeper partisanship and polarisation after the midterms will make bipartisan compromise and stable governance harder to achieve,” Ms Steward said.

“The November midterms will be an important marker of the trajectory of both the Republican and Democratic parties.

“The primaries and general congressional election will indicate the extent to which Trump is remaking the Republican Party and the degree to which Democrats are moving to the left on economic and social issues.”

Mr Trump pulled the US out of the TPP, arguing his country got a bad deal out of it. Picture: RS/CNP/MPI/Capital Pictures/MEGA

Ms Steward said the two major parties were moving further apart, a trend which was expected to continue throughout the midterms.

“America’s two major parties are moving further apart and are likely to continue to split throughout the midterms,” Ms Steward said.

“House leaders Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi already face a difficult task reaching bipartisan compromise or even controlling their own caucus.”

Republicans currently control both houses of Congress.

The big implication is that Washington could become even more dysfunctional and inwardly distracted.

“The US government will continue to find it difficult to deliver reliable expenditure for the Pentagon and will face an increased risk of shutdowns,” Ms Steward said.

The US Government was forced into an embarrassing shutdown last January.

Congress missed a deadline to reauthorise the federal government’s spending which led to most “non-essential” services and programs temporarily closing down.

At the heart of the shutdown was a Democrat demand for Congress to protect “Dreamers,” illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children, from deportation.

Republicans, who have a slim 51-49 Senate majority, said they would not negotiate on immigration until the government was reopened, winning the stand-off.

Ms Steward also highlighted how the Democrats seizing the House of Representatives will influence Mr Trump’s decision processes.

“If Democrats retake the House of Representatives it would set a tone of hyper-partisan opposition to the President, create constant media distraction, and likely accentuate Trump’s erratic decision-making style,” Ms Steward said.

NO BYE TRUMP ... YET

However, despite potentially being hamstrung in legislative terms, the authors suggest a blue wave (Democrat victory) in the House won’t necessarily lead to a Democrat president.

“For example, the Republican Party had major success in the 1994 and 2010 midterms, flipping control of one or both chambers of Congress in landslide results at the two-year mark of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s presidencies,” Ms Steward said.

“But Clinton effectively reoriented his administration’s agenda and the US economy recovered under Obama, ensuring that both Democratic presidents were easily re-elected.”

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