Can Trump become President in 2024? Why the unthinkable could happen
After the Capitol riots, a second term for Donald Trump seemed out of the question. But could he defy political gravity?
It sounds unthinkable. Another Trump presidency.
A man with a raft of lawsuits against him, found liable for sexually assaulting a woman in a department store in the 1990s and whose actions on the day the US Capitol was stormed are being questioned, is now in the box seat.
Even his daughter and wife are reluctant to campaign with him.
Yet, despite all his political baggage and mounting legal problems, the polls show Mr Trump, 76, remains the overwhelming favourite to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis, 44, who launched his own official presidential campaign this week, is a distant second.
Mr Trump leads his much younger rival by double digits in most polls. No one else is close.
And head-to-head polls between Mr Trump and Joe Biden show Mr Trump in front, some by almost seven points.
How reliable these polls are this far out is debatable but what it does show is that another Trump/Biden race would likely be competitive. Very competitive.
So how is Mr Trump defying political gravity, and can he win a general election?
Trump charisma
David Smith, an Associate Professor at the United States Studies Centre, argues Mr Trump has a level of charisma that his rivals, particularly Mr DeSantis, lack.
“There are tens of millions of Americans that follow Trump with a religious fervour that DeSantis can’t match,” he told news.com.au.
“Many of them believe he was sent by God to save America from its enemies.”
In contrast, Prof Smith describes Mr DeSantis as “less charismatic” than anyone he has seen become president in his lifetime (Ronald Reagan, both Bushes, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Mr Trump and Mr Biden).
“He doesn’t have the kind of personal magnetism, gravitas or magic with large crowds that we have seen in those other presidents,” he said.
“Not all of them had all of those things, but all of them had at least one of those things.”
Awkward, wooden, plodding are adjectives frequently used to describe Mr DeSantis.
“A strange no-eye-contact oddball,” is how Rick Wilson, a Republican media consultant, wrote about DeSantis on Resolute Square.
DeSantis ‘people are rookies’
Then there is the experience factor. Mr Trump has run for president twice before, and it shows.
Despite the legal turmoil surrounding him, Mr Trump’s team is a highly organised machine.
It has been methodically undercutting DeSantis, seizing congressional endorsements, releasing cut through attack ads and winning the news cycle before his rival even officially entered the race.
Mr Trump has gone personal and it has worked – no matter how ridiculous. See the crude, but highly effective, chocolate pudding ad.
Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chair described Mr DeSantis’s people as “rookies” to Politico.
“Trump came to New Hampshire the other day and rolled out 51 endorsements,” he said. “There was nothing like that the first time or the second time.”
Mr DeSantis has been reluctant to directly criticise Mr Trump for fear of alienating his supporters.
That’s a mistake according to strategists, who say Republican candidates did something similar in 2016, expecting Mr Trump to implode.
Fundraising efforts
Mr Trump and his Republican opponents will need a sizeable war chest to sway public opinion.
🚨In only three days since news of the indictment, President @realDonaldTrump’s campaign has raised a record $7M.🚨#MAGA 🇺🇸
— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) April 3, 2023
Interestingly, Mr Trump’s fundraising efforts have surged since his criminal indictments.
According to a senior campaign adviser, the Trump campaign raised some $US7 million in the first three days after he was indicted.
The average contribution during the first day was just $34.
Scott Walker, the former Republican Wisconsin governor who ran for president in 2016, told NewsWeek Mr Trump had ushered in a “whole new era” in fundraising.
Said Mr Walker: “Small dollar donors have a much bigger impact than they’ve had in the past. It doesn’t mean that it’s not helpful to have other supporters. But particularly in a presidential election, those who can activate that kind of small dollar grassroots support have a good chance.”
He said this phenomenon also explains why efforts by traditional, big-dollar Republican donors who are backing Mr DeSantis and trying to block Mr Trump’s return to the presidency have fallen flat.
Can Trump win a general election?
While Mr Trump’s legal problems have created a rallying effect in the Republican primaries, in a general election the opposite is expected to be true.
As they pile up, the more damaging they are with the wider public. And the more likely one of them will land and prove fatal.
On a fundraising front it is also doubtful whether Mr Trump could match Mr Biden, who raised more than $US1 billion in 2020 far outpacing Trump’s $US774 million haul.
Then there’s the unfavourability factor.
While Mr Trump narrowly won swinging voters in 2016, they swung hard to Mr Biden in 2020 by a nine-point margin.
Currently, only 37 per cent of independents approve of Mr Trump, and 64 per cent don’t want him to be president.
The New York Post editorialised that Mr Trump is just too established a figure, and too divisive, to change what people think about him.
Mr DeSantis is seen as the Republican candidate best placed to defeat Mr Biden - offering similar policies to Mr Trump but without the political baggage.
He made this pitch to voters this week, subtley contrasting his recent landslide victory in Florida with the former president who lost the 2020 election and backed candidates who underperformed at the midterms.
Of course, it is far too early to predict how the Republican primary field will shake out.
The debates won’t take place until August.
There is also the possibility of an outside candidate taking the field by storm.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the talented, young Indian-American entrepreneur has been making inroads.
“While Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are busy tearing chunks out of each other, there is an unlikely sleeper candidate in the Republican race who is quietly winning hearts and awakening hope across the country,” columnist Miranda Devine wrote about Ramaswamy in the New York Postrecently.
But politics lecturer Dr Oliver Villar from Charles Sturt University told news.com.au a Trump presidency is “plausible”, particularly given the worsening socio- economic conditions in the US.
“Trump is speaking to those voters in a way nobody else is, those voters who have practically given up on the major parties; these masses are predominately workers,” he said.
He also sees growing frustration with Mr Biden’s ongoing support for the Ukraine war and Mr Trump’s anti-war message which is striking a chord, as a major factor.
He described it as a “fascinating” time in US politics.
Whatever happens it is likely to be a crazy ride.
carla.mascarenhas@news.com.au
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