Brexit: Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan in tatters after nightmare week

A brief encounter between Boris Johnson and a new police recruit has summed up the national mood during a chaotic week over Brexit.

In a week of chaos and confusion, it’s hard to pick exactly which metaphor serves the blundering British government best.

Was it Prime Minister Boris Johnson being led round by a bull in Scotland, failing to grasp it by the horns? Or the attempt to recite a police caution in front of new recruits before giving up and saying: “anyway, you get the gist”?

Perhaps it was the new police recruit on the podium behind him who “spoke for the nation when she flaked out” during a Brexit speech, as one political sketch writer put it?

Boris Johnson taking the reigns … sort of. Picture: Andrew Milligan — WPA Pool/Getty Images.

Mr Johnson reacts as a woman needs to sit down during a speech. It was later criticised by police who claimed they were “hijacked” as a backdrop for a political exercise. Picture: Danny Lawson — WPA Pool/Getty Images.

Mr Johnson may have had an inkling this week would not be a good one when the opening words of his first Prime Minister’s questions — about Britain standing for democracy and the “rule of law” — were howled down with jeers.

In the background, Conservative MP Philip Lee exited stage right to join the Liberal Democrats, wiping out his single seat majority.

But regardless of whether or not Mr Johnson saw it coming, the scale of the chaos and confusion that has engulfed Britain has shocked even the most seasoned political watchers. In days, Mr Johnson has lost his majority, “purged” 21 party members, lost two critical votes and backed himself into a constitutional corner. It makes Theresa May look positively “strong and stable” by comparison.

So what on earth just happened? And where does Britain go from here? Here’s what you need to know about the Brexit chaos.

Mr Johnson did a speech with a backdrop of new police recruits that led to widespread criticism politicising the police and mimicking a Trump-style rally. Picture: Danny Lawson / POOL / AFP.

WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

On September 3, MPs returned to parliament from their summer break and set to wrecking Mr Johnson’s plans to leave the European Union (EU) on October 31.

First, they voted for legislation that would delay Britain leaving the EU 327 to 299. Then they voted against Mr Johnson’s motion calling for a general election on October 15, by 298 to 56. The result was far short of the two-thirds majority needed because Labour abstained, saying they would only vote for an election once no deal is taken off the table.

MORE: Topic banned from Johnson family table 

Mr Johnson lost his majority with the defection of Philip Lee to the Liberal Democrats. He kicked 21 MPs out of his own party — including veteran Conservatives such as Winston Churchill’s grandson Sir Nicholas Soames — leading to a huge backlash over the “purge”. Then his own brother, Jo Johnson, quit as a minister citing the “unresolvable tensions” between “family loyalty and the national interest”.

On the positive side, he and girlfriend Carrie Johnson got a new dog. A rescue jack russell-cross called Dilyn.

Hey Dilyn. Picture: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images.

WHY NOT HAVE AN ELECTION?

Opposition parties do want an election — they just fear a trap and are divided on when to have it. Labour thinks Mr Johnson has been secretly trying to manipulate the agenda so he can hold a “people vs parliament” vote and use this to force through a no deal Brexit.

MORE: Boris loses vote in showdown over Brexit

Labour wants to ensure Britain does not crash out of the EU with no deal and won’t risk a general election until that threat is removed. Leader Jeremy Corbyn described Mr Johnson’s offer of an election as like “an apple to Snow White from the Wicked Queen …[with] the poison of no deal.”

Meanwhile, Mr Johnson has been acting as if an election has already been called — splashing money on everything from NHS to police forces and Scottish farmers — hence the lively photo opportunities. He blasted Mr Corbyn’s refusal to vote for one as a “cowardly insult to democracy.”

Jo Johnson quit as education minister citing a split between family loyalties and the national interest. Picture: AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali, File.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

On Monday, the government will hold a second vote to try and get the election they want, which opposition parties have already said they will vote against. 

The result will mean Mr Johnson is backed into a constitutional crisis — partly of his own making. MPs won’t grant him the general election he wants. He can’t leave with no deal on October 31 because he is legally compelled to delay Brexit. He has also staked his personal credibility on it, saying he would rather “die in a ditch” than ask the EU for an extension. He can’t even call a no-confidence motion in his own government to force a snap poll because he doesn’t have a majority. Oh and time is running out because he has already decided to prorogue parliament until October 14.

“It’s hard to overstate the wretchedness of the position in which Boris Johnson finds himself in,” The Times wrote in an editorial. “He is in office but not in power, reduced to pleading with Jeremy Corbyn, the labour leader, to back an election on October 15.”

WHAT DOES THE EU THINK?

EU leaders are standing by and watching their neighbours self destruct. They are willing to consider new proposals on what to do about the Irish border, but are yet to see anything from Mr Johnson’s government that could change the game.

Some think Mr Johnson’s claims of being ready to work out a deal is just “window dressing” for a domestic audience. Former Chancellor Philip Hammond, who has since been dumped by Mr Johnson after refusing to back his no deal plans, said he has received confirmation from multiple EU sources there are no new negotiations taking place.

German newspaper Der Spiegel said Mr Johnson’s Brexit gamble is “political vandalism” that will lead to an “autumn of horror” for the Queen.

“Elizabeth has spent 67 years dutifully and successfully fulfilling her nonpartisan role, only to now be dragged into the middle of a messy bout of political mud-wrestling. And Brexit — surprise, surprise — is to blame,” an editorial said.

WILL BREXIT EVEN HAPPEN?

That’s anyone’s guess. Polls this week show 72 per cent of Brits think leaving with a no deal is the most realistic outcome, according to YouGov data. A majority of people, 56 per cent, also think Brexit could be delayed past 31 October. More than 40 per cent think a “soft Brexit” could be achieved, while 37 per cent think a second referendum could still realistically take place.

What’s clear is that people want to have a say. Amid the prospect of a general election, more than 82,000 people registered to vote this week, the majority of them aged under 34.

That does not bode well for Mr Johnson, given that during the Brexit referendum in 2016, younger voters generally voted in favour of Remain. Those under 25 voted 71 per cent to Remain and 29 per cent for Leave. That’s almost the exact opposite to those over 65, who voted 64 per cent to Leave and 36 per cent to Remain.

It’s also worth remembering Mr Johnson himself has not been electorally tested. He became prime minister after around 100,000 votes from Conservative members after Theresa May stepped down.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants a general election, but will it deliver the votes he needs. Picture: Duncan McGlynn / POOL / AFP.

WHAT’S THE LONG-TERM DAMAGE?

Aside from the awkward photo opportunities and “girl’s blouse” insults in parliament, real damage is being done to Britain amid the political chaos.

Voters on both the Leave and Remain sides of the argument feel their views have not been respected. Anger against Mr Johnson was palpable as he crisscrossed the country, with one person saying he was meant to be in Brussels “negotiating”. A police chief constable said he was “disappointed” to see his officers used as a backdrop to a political speech and another voter told him “please leave my town” leading the topic to trend across Twitter.

Dysfunction in Westminster has damaged Britain’s reputation as a bastion of good-governance and rule of law. Meanwhile the threat of a no deal Brexit has held up investment and dragged on economic growth, while public sector workers are left wondering if hefty incentives promised by the government will ever materialise.

Want more Brexit details? Click here for another explainer on how Britain got into this mess.