Bill Shorten is the one man who could save Tony Abbott
HE ROSE to prominence as a likable straight-shooter, but now he comes across more like a Thunderbird. And he might be the man to save Tony.
HE ROSE to prominence as the likable straight-shooter who became the human face of the Beaconsfield mining disaster. Today, he comes across more like a Thunderbird. And, as unlikely as it sounds, he might just be the man to save Tony Abbott from electoral oblivion, after the embattled PM yesterday challenged voters to sack him at the next election if they were not happy with his leadership.
That unlikely person is Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
Labor has surged ahead in the polls but criticism surrounds Mr Shorten’s wooden performances on camera and a perception that he lacks strong alternative policies.
Despite this, this week’s Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows that half of voters prefer Mr Shorten as prime minister to Tony Abbott, who is favoured by only 34 per cent.
Labor has maintained a strong lead over the Coalition in two-party-preferred terms, with the ALP ahead 54 per cent to 46 per cent.
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With Mr Abbott on the nose in the electorate, Mr Shorten has succeeded by default, in a Steven Bradbury-style surge.
Mr Abbott’s approval rating — which is calculated by the percentage of voters who approve of his performance, minus those who disapprove — is in the doldrums, at an abysmal minus 38. The poor rating has been put down to a series of embarrassing missteps, which have fuelled leadership tensions in party ranks.
His “captain’s call” in knighting Prince Philip attracted widespread ridicule, and yesterday he ditched his signature policy of a generous paid parental leave scheme.
But a political scientist Peter Chen, of the University of Sydney, has warned that it’s not all good news for Labor.
“If you look at the poll data, Abbott’s polling has tanked, but Shorten’s have stayed within the margin of error. Shorten’s numbers are soft by comparison,” said Dr Chen, who is also a volunteer with the Australian Greens.
“I think if you were in the ALP you would be chuffed (by the polls), but I wouldn’t be so excited because people haven’t fully embraced Shorten’s leadership. Shorten has a number of negatives.”
Dr Chen said a sexual assault allegation would continue to “hang around” Mr Shorten, even though police had determined not to press charges. Mr Shorten has strenuously denied the claims.
Mr Shorten first came to national attention in 2006 when he became the human face of the Beaconsfield mining disaster.
The Tasmanian mine collapsed on April 25, killing one miner and leaving another two, Brant Webb and Todd Russell, trapped underground for two weeks. As national secretary of the Australian Workers’ Union, Mr Shorten became the spokesman for the recovery effort and was widely praised for his passionate performance.
In the process, he single-handedly boosted the stocks of the union movement and became a kind of national counsellor for a nation gripped by the unfolding drama. Kim Beazley called him the “national interpreter”.
He went on to take a powerful factional role in federal parliament. He was a key player in tearing down Kevin Rudd as prime minister in favour of Julia Gillard, and then reinstating Mr Rudd three years later.
After Labor was roundly kicked out of government in 2013, Mr Shorten won the Labor leadership but, much like Ms Gillard before him, he has shrunk in the role.
Dr Chen agreed there was a disconnect between how he came across during Beaconsfield and now as Opposition Leader.
“(In 2006) he did demonstrate a capacity to be extremely savvy in positioning himself where the public sentiment was,” Dr Chen said.
But now, Mr Shorten was more focused on a “small target strategy” as Labor leader.
“I think he’s been told that keeping a low profile is a good idea because it allows the government to do damage to itself and he can coast into government; but, like Abbott, he will find that he has no political capital and none of the policies will be able to be implemented,” Dr Chen said.
Mr Shorten has followed Mr Abbott’s lead in taking a negative approach to opposition, focusing on obstructing and criticising government reforms, rather than offering clear alternative policies.
Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said this of Mr Shorten yesterday: “He’s vacuous in his capacity to provide any alternate.”
Mr Shorten appeared on ABC TV’s Insiders on Sunday, where he fended off accusations that he was a “blank sheet of paper”.
“This will be the year that we work through our policies. Ever since we lost the last election, we’ve been out there listening, talking to people, talking to experts,” he said. “We’ll have a full slate of policies in good time before the next election.”
Much of the reaction to the interview focused on how unengaging Mr Shorten was.
How can Bill Shorten still sound like a robot when he's sitting across from the epic realness that is Barrie Cassidy? #insiders
— Melanie Tait (@MelanieTait) January 31, 2015Oh. Wow. Bill Shorten is about as engaging as a pocket lint. #insiders
— Brendan Maclean (@macleanbrendan) January 31, 2015Compare the answers #Insiders @billshortenmp criticised 4 boring, @TonyAbbottMHR obfuscates. #auspoI
— DamePrinceGraffiti (@annieljensen) February 1, 2015Listening to glib, rehearsed responses from Shorten on #Insiders Looking forward to a Turnbull versus Plibersek Federal election. #auspol
— Michaela Newell (@MichaelaNewell_) February 1, 2015Shorten shows flashes of who's he's capable of being i wonder if he's deliberately holding back or not. #insiders
— That Duke You Knew (@Deadly_Thoughts) February 1, 2015Siri talks more naturally than Bill #insiders
— Je Suis Avec Stupide (@EnviroStudent) February 1, 2015Oh god.. Bill Shorten on #insiders replay. Is this what politics has become? Every word market-tested and utterly non-inspirational #auspol
— Simon (@coastbeth) February 1, 2015@billshortenmp performance on #Insiders this morning not inspiring. Couldn't give any meaningful responses on policies. Finger out Bill.
— Spectator (@WeTheVoters2013) February 1, 2015Do you think Bill Shorten makes a good alternative prime minister? Comment below or join the conversation on Twitter @newscomauHQ.
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