Jobs least likely to get an above-inflation pay rise in 2024

The jobs where Australian workers are least likely to earn a pay rise above inflation have been revealed in newly released salary data.

Most Australians have been warned they shouldn’t expect a decent pay rise in 2024, with a new survey revealing the jobs where employers are least likely to offer a pay rise above inflation.

The Robert Walters 2024 Salary Survey of more than 1500 employers and candidates, released on Wednesday, shows 58 per cent of bosses said they weren’t expecting to offer salary increases above 5.4 per cent – the current inflation rate.

That means employees face “real terms” pay cut as wage rises lag behind inflation.

Analysis into salary changes throughout 2023 revealed category managers in procurement reported a 3.17 per cent drop in salaries, while accounts payable roles reported no fluctuation in salary.

Business development managers reported an average 2 per cent pay increase, with salaries for network architects increasing by 2.94 per cent.

Project managers in resources and engineering fields also reported a 3.7 per cent increase.

On the opposite spectrum, data from Robert Walters found high-paid financial accountants in the wealth management space received a 11.32 per cent increase in salaries, boosting their average pay to a salary range between $160,000 to $220,000.

Test analysts working in the tech sector reported a 16.82 per cent boost in pay, with supply chain managers earning a 15.15 per cent uptick in salary.

According to recent employment data, 58 per cent of bosses said they weren’t expecting to offer salary increase above CPI. Picture: iStock

Commenting on the survey findings, Robert Walters’ managing director Andrew Hanson said that as a whole, the tech and transformation sectors were least likely to receive pay bumps due to the “broad increases in salaries over the last two years”.

“As a whole, I think we’ve reached the ceiling a little while ago and we’re not seeing those increases coming through,” he said.

“They were unsustainable before we hit the ceiling but a desperate need for some of those skills is why people paid what is later found to be above the odds.”

The current period of economic downturn means salary increases are less likely in areas such as business development, management, and sales and marketing.

“We sometimes see those sales roles slip when the market is just not there to sell into,” he said.

The survey also found a flexible working arrangement was the most valued benefit by employees, with 69 per cent saying they would prefer to work two or three days a week.

A greater push for a four-day work week is likely next year, with 34 per cent of organisations considering either a pilot or transition to a four-day working week with 100 per cent pay and productivity.

With pay expectations moderating, employees will put greater value into job security and career development opportunities, Robert Walters Australia and New Zealand chief executive Shay Peters says. Picture: NCA NewsWire/ Nicholas Eagar

The employment outlook for jobseekers has also dropped.

Workers who felt “very confident” about opportunities in their sector had nearly halved from 38 per cent to 17 per cent despite 74 per cent of employees flagging they were looking to change roles in the next 12 months.

However, moving into 2024, pay will be an increasingly lesser reason for changing roles, with only 22 per cent of employers surveyed saying they would change jobs for a higher salary compared with 56 per cent in 2023.

Robert Walters Australia and New Zealand chief executive Shay Peters said there was a shift towards an employer’s market, with employees “increasingly valuing job security and career development opportunities”.

“There’s increasing alignment between employers and employees in terms of both pay and flexible and hybrid working conditions, a marked change from last year’s survey,” he said.

“When asking themselves the question ‘should I stay or should I go?’, employees are increasingly weighing up the risks versus the rewards, as (pay) increases are likely to be much lower.”