Women, retirees key targets in poll race

IF TONY Abbott is to stay in power he needs to win over one key group of Australians and he has a plan to do it.

IF TONY Abbott is to stay in power he needs to win over more women and keep seniors on side.

His pledge not to make any changes to superannuation is a step towards shoring up votes of the over-65s, which heavily favours the coalition over Labor by about 60-40 per cent in two-party terms. The childcare package in his government’s second budget was aimed - for the most part - at attracting more women to the coalition.

For much of this term the female vote has split around 56-44 in favour of Labor - the legacy of some scathing criticism of Abbott by Julia Gillard and recognition of Labor’s commitment to equality. Gaining the trust of women is crucial.

Unfortunately for the government, the budget sends mixed messages to both them and seniors.

Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen this week declared Labor is happy to fight an election on the issue of superannuation.

He argues Labor’s plan to claw back tax concessions from the wealthiest superannuants, reaping $14 billion over a decade, is a fairer approach than the government’s decision to limit pensions in a bid to save the budget $2.4 billion.

Bowen came armed with the budget papers which show the cost of total superannuation tax concessions will outstrip the cost of the age pension within four years.

Abbott says Labor’s plan is to treat superannuation as a “piggy bank to be raided”.

Seniors groups say both parties need to look at the broad issue of retirement incomes, including pensions and superannuation. However, the idea of an inquiry is unlikely to get much traction as the major parties firm up their policy positions for a possible early poll.

The debate is more likely to focus on the fairness of the two approaches.

The coalition says its changes to the age pension asset test will increase payments for 170,000 retirees, cut the part-pension for 235,000 others and stop payments to 91,000 who currently get the part-pension.

Industry Super Australia says a 45-50 year old couple each on average earnings could be about $6000 a year worse off in retirement from the government’s changes.

A much better deal is to hike the superannuation guarantee to 12 per cent and restore the low-income super top-up, it says.

However, in the coalition’s favour another study suggests Labor’s plan to cut concessions for the wealthiest superannuants could affect double the number of people claimed by the opposition. The study by the Parliamentary Budget Office, conducted on behalf of Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm, also queried the size of the budget saving and the ease at which the policy could be implemented.

The coalition, however is adopting a simpler strategy - claiming Labor is the “high taxing party” and the Liberal-Nationals stand for lower taxes.

Another political vulnerability is the coalition’s plan to end “double dipping” - new mothers accessing both their employer-paid parental leave scheme and the government’s $11,500 scheme.

It surprised not only Labor but many womens groups who had believed Abbott and the coalition were firmly committed to a new benchmark of 26 weeks paid leave.

Abbott says lifting spending on child care, especially for low and middle-income families, is a much fairer way of spending taxpayer money.

Labor says the country can afford quality child care and paid parental leave and will oppose cuts to family tax benefits which are being used to fund the government’s plan.

The challenge for Bill Shorten and Tony Abbott in coming months will be to provide voters with a sharp contrast between Labor’s retirement and families policies and the coalition’s stance.