‘Significant’ rise in distressed listings in major Australian state

Old and distressed listings have seen a ‘meaningful’ rise in some Australian states, as nationwide listings continue to increase.

Old and distressed listings have risen across key areas in Australia over the past month, amid a steady increase in property on the market nationwide.

Research conducted by financial institute SQM Research saw a total of 253,327 homes for sale in October: a 3.9 per cent increase from last month, and a 4.2 per cent increase compared to October 2023.

The country saw an overall increase of 4.2 per cent in home listings across the country, compared to this time last year.

New listings in Australia shot up by 6.2 per cent from September to October, reaching a national number of 82,458 listings and a 3.4 per cent increase from this time last year.

Distressed listings – properties for sale from vendors under financial stress – were at 5,351 national listings in October. This is down 3.1 per cent from October last year, but up by 3.3 per cent monthly.

However, a notable exception to this was the state of Victoria, which saw both a 5.6 per cent monthly increase and a whopping 28.4 per cent yearly increase.

Managing Director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, said Victoria has become the first large Australian state to see distressed listings at numbers exceeding listings before the Covid-19 pandemic.

“At this stage at a national level, we have no major concerns,” he said, but added Victoria’s rates are “Starting to become some meaningful numbers”.

“I don’t think we can call this a benign number in Victoria now,” he said. “While the counts are still low compared to pre-Covid periods, we will be monitoring these results very closely

going forward, as it could be an early sign of an increase in the number of Melbourne

property owners struggling.”

Managing Director of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, said Victoria was seeing a “meaningful” increase in distressed listings that surpassed pre-Covid levels.

Old listings – homes on the market for more than 180 days – have seen a 10.1 per cent national increase from October last year at 69,658 listings. Big increases of over 10 per cent were also seen in Melbourne, Darwin, Canberra and Hobart. With Melbourne’s year-on-year increase at 11.3 per cent and Sydney’s increase at 6.4 per cent, the two cities alone had 12,998 old listings on the market in October.

“It shows that in our two largest capital cities, that sellers are increasingly struggling to make a transaction,” Mr Christopher said.

Despite monthly rises in listings, cities such as Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Darwin saw decreases in total property listings compared to October of 2023.

Brisbane’s yearly change was a decrease of 4 per cent: seeing an 8.6 per cent increase in new listings, but declines in old and distressed listings of above 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, Perth and Adelaide saw a decline in listings across the board. Adelaide’s total property listings saw a 14 per cent year-on-year decrease, and Perth had a decrease of 18.6 per cent.

“That normally signifies there are more buyers and sellers in the marketplace, which means that the absorption of stock has been increasing, and it’s been driving down total listings,” Mr Christopher said.

As listings rise across Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock said they would continue to hold interest rates at the percentage established in November last year. Picture: NewsWire / Nikki Short

Mr Christopher added SQM Research was predicting housing prices in Melbourne and Sydney would continue to fall while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold out on an interest rate reduction.

“Based on what the reserve bank came out with yesterday … there is zero chance of a rate cut prior to Christmas,” he said. “We will [possibly] not actually see a rate cut until mid-2025.”

The RBA board decided on Tuesday to leave the current cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent, which has not changed since November 2023.

Originally published as ‘Significant’ rise in distressed listings in major Australian state