Rent crisis: 66 red zones where prices are set to surge
Tenants have been warned to brace for big rent hikes in red zones across the state with higher rental turnover and a lack of homes available to rent. SEARCH EVERY SUBURB
Tenants have been warned to brace for rent hikes of up to 20 per cent this year in 66 red zones across the state.
An exclusive analysis by Suburb Advice forecast strongest rent price growth in areas with higher rental turnover and a lack of homes available to rent.
But while savvy investors stand to cash in on rent increases of at least 10 per cent in 28 house and 38 unit markets, it’s bad news for renters.
Agents say a “second wave” of migration has created renewed competition for properties just as prices started to stabilise.
The data shows houses in the southern Gold Coast lead with a predicted surge of 18.7 per cent in 12 months, covering suburbs from Coolangatta to Elanora.
Tenants would be forced to fork out an additional $205.70 in Currumbin, where the current median rent for a house is $1,100.
The Ipswich area from Forest Lake to Oxley followed with 15.7 per cent expected rent growth, then Mackay in the north, with a 15.4 per cent rise for suburbs across the region to Isaac and the Whitsundays.
In Darra, where the median house rent sits at $550, renters could be slugged with an additional $86.35 one year from now.
F
orecast growth for the Beaudesert to Logan area on Brisbane’s southern fridge was 13 and 17 per cent for houses and units respectively, making suburbs including Logan Village, Yarrabilba and Jimboomba Queensland’s top-performing apartment market.
For metro Brisbane, the cluster of suburbs from Kenmore to Brookfield and Moggill were tipped to rise by 11.9 per cent.
A typical house in Kenmore renting for $800 a week would fetch an extra $95.20.
For units, the Strathpine, Capalaba, Browns Plains and Wynnum to Manly sub-regions were each expected to notch rent rises of 15 per cent or more.
Suburb Advice owner Sam Saket said the data, which grouped suburbs into sub-regions defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), considered rent price growth over the past year, affordability measured by rent as a proportion of household income, and the volume of rental stock managed by real estate agents in each area.
“The strongest forecasted growth metric was found in areas with higher rental turnover and constrained supply, while more affordable markets are seeing moderate but steady increases,” Mr Saket said.
“For renters, affordability remains a key challenge, with rent increases outpacing wage growth in several regions.
“For investors, the data highlights locations where rental returns are likely to strengthen, making strategic property decisions more important than ever.”
New settlement data from Aussie Home Loans revealed a big rise in interstate investment, with the share of Queensland properties owned by NSW buyers up from 5.3 per cent in 2020 to 14 per cent in 2024.
The top postcodes were 4207, including Beenleigh (Logan to Beaudesert) and 4300, covering the Ipswich suburbs of Springfield to Redbank.
Aussie Home Loans Beenleigh and Ormeau principal Jackie Laverty said Beenleigh had emerged as an investment hotspot, offering lower entry costs and strong returns.
“We are seeing increased investment spending in our area, driven by continuing significant population growth, strong rental yield and continuing infrastructure,” Ms Laverty said.
“The area is also well placed with easy access to both Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and this is further being enhanced with the start of a second highway.”
Population growth in Queensland outpaced the national average in the 12 months to July 2024, according to latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Net overseas migration was the biggest contributor, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of growth, while interstate migration was also significant at 24 per cent, accounting for just under 30,000 new arrivals.
This surge in population has driven up demand for housing, exacerbating the housing crisis and pushing up rent prices across the state.
Brent Martens, of Coastal property agents, said the company had leased 120 properties across the Gold Coast through January, with average rent during that period more than $900 a week, and a total of 744 applications received.
“That is the most we have ever leased in a month in 14 years for the agency, and I put that down to a second wave of people moving up from Sydney or Melbourne. One in every four inquiries is from interstate,” Mr Martens said. Post-pandemic, an entrenched remote work culture and focus on lifestyle underpinned rising demand for coast homes, he said.
“If properties are priced right, they will be leased straightaway, but while prices have stayed stable so far this year, the inquiry level has gone up.”
Jessica Melling, of Harcourts Property Hub, said forecast rent increases could be tempered by tenants’ capacity to pay extra, as wages failed to keep pace.
“If there was an 18 per cent rent rise, that is great for investors, but where does it put renters?
“You might find that a certain demographic is pushed out of the high-demand suburbs,” she said.
Ms Melling noted an increase in dual-living arrangements, as families and housemates teamed up to as housing costs spiralled out of reach.
“Families are capitalising on the land they have available, building granny flats and combining rentals,” she said.
But landlords also needed to consider that more tenants living under one roof increased wear and tear on their property.
The Real Estate Institute of Queensland’s (REIQ) latest residential vacancy report showed a statewide rate of 1 per cent for the third quarter in a row, increasing competition for homes and pushing prices higher.
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REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said vacancy rates tightened through the end of 2024 in 18 of 50 sub-regions surveyed, remained stable in 15, and relaxed in 17.
“The ugly reality is that when you hve a prolonged tight rental market like this, everyone feels it,” Ms Mercorella said.
“We know that the most vulnerable in the community are the hardest hit however its impact is felt at all levels including amongst those with higher or double incomes.”
TOP 10 RENTAL RED ZONES WHERE PRICES ARE PREDICTION TO INCREASE
HOUSES
Coolangatta
Forest Lake - Oxley
Mackay
Maryborough
Ipswich Hinterland
Far North
Darling Downs (West) - Maranoa
Salisbury
Beaudesert
Biloela
UNITS
Jimboomba
Strathpine
Capalaba
Browns Plains
Wynnum - Manly
Mackay
Innisfail - Cassowary Coast
Maribyrnong
Loganlea - Carbrook
Forest Lake - Oxley
*source: Suburb Advice
Originally published as Rent crisis: 66 red zones where prices are set to surge
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