Geelong suburbs where home values have dropped most
Median home values have fallen in Geelong suburbs as much as $100K this year, yet purchasing in the next six months could be the smartest decision a buyer can make.
The property clock is ticking for Geelong home values to turn around as new figures reveal how far prices have slipped in the past year.
The quarter suburb median value data from PropTrack shows house and unit prices in all but four suburbs have retreated throughout 2024.
The biggest fall added up to more than $100,000 off the value of a typical house in Barwon Heads.
Most major suburbs in Geelong have seen values decline between 2 and 5 per cent, which equates to between $15,000 and $22,000 in value compared the prices recorded at the same time last year, including big suburbs such as.
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Geelong’s most expensive suburbs, Newtown and Wandana Heights, have been the most stable over that time, with the median value for a house in Newtown sliding just over $1000 in 12 months, underlining the stability of blue chip real estate.
But PropTrack economist Anne Flaherty said Geelong’s more affordable suburbs had proved most resilient to the downturn as more people turned to cheaper houses and units to break into the market as high interest rates curtailed their borrowing power.
“The areas where we are seeing the biggest declines are actually those more expensive areas,” Ms Flaherty said
“So those pockets of Geelong that are still more affordable, where you can pick up a house for sub $800,000 or sub $700,000 they’re actually not seeing the same level of declines that we’re seeing across the rest of the region.
“What that means is that a larger proportion of the total pool of buyers is now being focused in on these more affordable suburbs, so that’s keeping the competition higher in those areas and helping to support that price resilience,” Ms Flaherty said.
Suburbs where house values have dropped by less than $10,000 include Lara, Grovedale, Corio and Bell Post Hill.
Suburbs that have seen the biggest decline in values include Manifold Heights (-$49,000), East Geelong (-$32,000), Newcomb (-$28,000), Highton (-$23,000) and Belmont (-$22,000).
Whitford, Newtown agent Heidi Trempel said home prices should turn upward in the next six months.
“If you are going to buy, in the next six months is the time to do it,” she said.
“It would be silly to wait until one interest rate goes down quarter of a per cent, even to think you’re then going to get a better deal when you probably will have to pay more for a property in the long run.”
Ms Trempel said buyers could purchase with a longer settlement, reducing the time they are paying off a mortgage before the next rate cut.
Although there is a lot of stock on the market, Ms Trempel said it’s not the properties that everybody wants to purchase as a home.
She is referring to the significant amount of homes being sold by investors getting out of the market after increases in compliance and mortgage costs and land tax.
“Particularly anyone looking to spend under a $1m, they will benefit the most if they buy in the next six months,” she said.
“They’ve got more choice. If you’re going to pay a certain amount of money you want to make sure it’s ticking every box, whereas after the first-time buyer is a little bit more lenient on what they will and won’t accept.”
Ms Flaherty said six months was plausible given how the market was factoring in interest rate cuts in 2025.
“If we see interest rates fall in the first half of next year, I think that would probably trigger that turning point in the market,” Ms Flaherty said.
“Buyer confidence could return, borrowing power would increase, but it’s going to depend, really, on the magnitude of the rate cut and when we see it.”
Buxton, Highton agent David Gray said competition was scarce, even though there were plenty of buyers around.
“Each deal has certainly had its challenges, nuances and just a bit more of an arm wrestle,” he said.
“I feel it’s a very balanced market at the moment, and that can take a 12 month period for a vendor to realise that’s where my house sits, and for the buyer to be comfortable to pay that price.”
Mr Gray said cheaper home were coming into the frame for many buyers.
“Provided it’s in reasonable condition in the right suburbs, that’s probably the shift for owner occupiers, or people upsizing or sidestepping,” he said.
“There’s no such thing as the bargain, it’s probably more the environment that you’re buying in.
“I don’t think anyone’s getting anything at an unbelievable discount, they’re just being able to buy it with less of a frenzy around it.”
GEELONG SUBURBS WHERE HOUSE VALUES HAVE DROPPED MOST
Suburb | Median house value | 12 month change (%) | Down |
Barwon Heads | $1,522,711 | -6.3% | -$102,360 |
Point Lonsdale | $1,185,051 | -6.5% | -$82,688 |
Queenscliff | $1,395,713 | -4.3% | -$63,088 |
Jan Juc | $1,330,351 | -4.5% | -$62,601 |
Ocean Grove | $921,045 | -5.2% | -$50,874 |
Manifold Heights | $911,122 | -5.1% | -$49,058 |
Anglesea | $1,504,845 | -2.4% | -$36,656 |
East Geelong | $771,047 | -4.0% | -$31,902 |
Herne Hill | $678,636 | -4.3% | -$30,227 |
Newcomb | $551,202 | -4.8% | -$28,009 |
Torquay | $1,192,306 | -2.3% | -$27,961 |
Curlewis | $642,312 | -4.0% | -$26,516 |
Thomson | $517,488 | -4.5% | -$24,171 |
Highton | $841,384 | -2.7% | -$22,986 |
Armstrong Creek | $656,302 | -3.3% | -$22,303 |
Geelong West | $823,070 | -2.6% | -$22,110 |
Belmont | $673,092 | -3.2% | -$22,051 |
Clifton Springs | $652,884 | -2.9% | -$19,335 |
Hamlyn Heights | $691,184 | -2.6% | -$18,739 |
Fyansford | $891,938 | -2.0% | -$18,577 |
Norlane | $439,392 | -4.1% | -$18,570 |
Leopold | $658,471 | -2.7% | -$17,966 |
Mount Duneed | $711,408 | -2.4% | -$17,658 |
Drysdale | $698,310 | -2.4% | -$17,157 |
Breakwater | $515,812 | -3.2% | -$17,141 |
Geelong | $870,548 | -1.9% | -$16,541 |
Whittington | $489,736 | -3.3% | -$16,495 |
North Geelong | $600,692 | -2.7% | -$16,353 |
St Albans Park | $568,100 | -2.5% | -$14,771 |
Bell Park | $598,535 | -2.4% | -$14,494 |
Charlemont | $619,395 | -1.9% | -$12,295 |
St Leonards | $721,241 | -1.7% | -$12,137 |
Waurn Ponds | $766,847 | -1.3% | -$10,081 |
Lara | $668,942 | -1.2% | -$8,258 |
Grovedale | $656,215 | -1.2% | -$8,241 |
Marshall | $620,986 | -1.2% | -$7,831 |
Portarlington | $855,802 | -0.9% | -$7,749 |
Corio | $469,155 | -1.3% | -$6,378 |
Bell Post Hill | $617,731 | -0.7% | -$4,552 |
Winchelsea | $616,364 | -0.4% | -$2,269 |
Newtown | $1,131,836 | -0.1% | -$1,174 |
Wandana Heights | $988,450 | 0.0% | -$171 |
Bannockburn | $742,238 | 0.0% | -$98 |
Indented Head | $798,112 | 0.8% | $6,009 |
Lovely Banks | $706,364 | 1.0% | $7,228 |
SOURCE: PropTrack. 12-month change to September, 2024.
Originally published as Geelong suburbs where home values have dropped most