John McGrath: Brisbane property price growth to continue

One of the nation’s top real estate experts expects home price growth in Brisbane to continue “in coming years”.

Last year was a landmark year for Brisbane, with the Olympics host city briefly taking the silver medal position among Australia’s capital cities in the property price stakes.

In May 2024, Brisbane’s median dwelling value leap-frogged Canberra to record the nation’s second highest city median dwelling value, behind Sydney’s gold medal spot.

Brisbane last held this second placed position way back in 1997.

McGrath founder John McGrath.

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The achievement reflected strong price growth over the past four years.

Since the start of Covid-19 to June 2024, Brisbane median dwelling prices have soared by a staggering 61.5 per cent, compared to a combined capital city price growth of 32.6 per cent in the same period. There are a range of likely factors behind the price growth.

Firstly, Brisbane has continued to experience steady population growth, thanks in the main to

overseas and domestic migration.

This house at 49 Brisbane Ave, Bulimba, is on the market for overs offer $4.5m.

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Already burgeoning from an exodus of locked down Sydneysiders and Melburnians fleeing north during the pandemic, Brisbane’s population surged by a further 3.1 per cent in fiscal 2023, reaching a total of 2.71 million, according to the Bureau of Statistics.

This was the third highest population growth rate of any capital city in the country, after Perth and Melbourne.

A strong pipeline of infrastructure works — some needed to deliver the 2032 Olympic Games — may also be assisting dwelling price growth.

This five-bedroom house at 37 Charlton St, Ascot, is for sale by negotiation.

Upgrades are planned for the Queensland Sports and Athletics Centre (QSAC) and Suncorp Stadium, with the government also exploring legacy transport opportunities to link the QSAC, QEII Jubilee Hospital and Griffith University with city precincts.

Major construction works have begun for the Brisbane Metro, which will link 18 stations on two lines from Eight Mile Plains to Roma Street, and Royal Brisbane Women’s Hospital to The University of Queensland.

Construction is underway on the Boggo Road station in Dutton Park for the Cross River Rail.

The 10.2km Cross River Rail project, which includes twin tunnels running under the Brisbane River and CBD, and four new underground stations at Boggo Road, Woolloongabba, Albert Street and Roma Street, is set to be completed this year.

Construction of the 37.8km Direct Sunshine Coast Rail Line, which connects the North Coast Line at Beerwah to Maroochydore via Caloundra and Birtinya, is set to begin next year.

Strong first home buyer activity has supported Brisbane’s property market.

The Cross River Rail worksite in Woolloongabba. Photo: Steve Pohlner.

In FY23, Queensland had the highest per capita usage, out of any Australian state or territory, of the Federal Government’s First Home Guarantee scheme (under which the government guarantees the home loans of eligible first home buyers).

And the trend is set to continue.

In June 2024, the Queensland Government announced it had increased, from $500,000 to $700,000, the value at which first home buyers paid no stamp duty, saving these buyers up to $17,350.

Brisbane’s housing price and population performance is also rubbing off on surrounding areas.

Brisbane’s growth is rubbing off on the Gold Coast, according to John McGrath. Picture: Nigel Hallett.

In fiscal 2024, median home values at the Gold Coast’s Southport increased by 15.58 per cent to $895,461, and at the Sunshine Coast’s Buderim by 15.96 per cent to $1,110,111.

In North Queensland, Townsville is the key area to watch, thanks to its relative affordability, laidback tropical lifestyle and access to health and education facilities.

This property at 4 Hale St, Townsville City, is selling in the high $2 millions.

Median dwelling prices in the city rose by 20.11 per cent to $471,942 in fiscal 2024.

Given Brisbane’s strong population and migration growth, infrastructure spend and support for first homebuyers, and its Olympic City status, there is every reason to expect that property price growth will continue in the city, and surrounding areas, in coming years.

Originally published as John McGrath: Brisbane property price growth to continue