Dramatic predictions for real estate after Qld election

Fresh analysis of the impact of Queensland’s state election on the real estate market has predicted dramatic fallout for residential property, no matter which party wins.

Market confidence is set to surge after the state election is decided.

Fresh analysis of the impact of Queensland’s state elections on the real estate market has predicted dramatic fallout for residential property after voting is complete.

A double-digit spike in property sales could be in store for Queensland post-election, according new research by Place Advisory crunching sales numbers off the past three electoral cycles.

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Damian Hackett is CEO of Place. Picture: Darren England.

It’s projected a boost in market confidence with an increase of 10 to 15 per cent in sales during the quarter following the election, irrespective of the winning party.

Historically the market stalls around elections as buyers adopt a wait-and-see stance but comes back strongly immediately afterwards, with the last 2020 election seeing a double-digit spike in sales volumes (+15 per cent) when the Labor party retained its hold on power.

That rise was significantly higher than the previous two election cycles – which saw a 9.2 per cent rise in sales volumes when Labor took over from the Liberals in 2012, and a 9.3 per cent increase when LNP beat ALP in 2015.

House prices rose as well after the last elections – up 9.5 per cent, compared to 2pc when ALP beat LNP in 2012 and 5.9pc when LNP beat ALP in 2015.

Human nature sees a portion of the market hold back during election cycles, with an almost immediate jump afterwards.

“Place Advisory does not believe the ALP’s rise in median house price was due to the party elected – the Brisbane market was trending upwards regardless of the party in power,” the research said.

“Both electoral outcomes (a change in government and the retention of power) resulted in positive market movements, suggesting that the outcome itself may be less important than the certainty that follows.”

Place co-founder Damian Hackett said there was a “spike in indecisiveness during times of uncertainty (like elections) among a portion of the population”.

“It’s a phenomenon observed both federally and at the state level,” he said, and while federal elections generally involve more direct hip-pocket impact like property taxes, state-level indecisiveness was often linked to public service jobs and major local development decisions – which in this case includes infrastructure for the 2032 Olympics.

Among the issues the incoming state government will decide is the 2032 Olympics investment program.

“Usually federal elections have a bigger impact on the overall economy, but even at state level, clearly there’s a percentage of the population with this fear of making decisions, obviously the state government is a huge employer.”

Mr Hackett said the 2024 state election was “interesting timing” in the middle of the traditional spring selling season.

“September, October, November are always typically when you’ll see the strongest volumes of sales happening, so it might just be that because of the elections, it might even push that November to December activity a bit higher than normal.”

“It will be interesting to see what happens with auction clearance rates in Brisbane around the next couple of weekends to see whether there are some people holding off compared to say what’s happening in New South Wales and Victoria where they don’t have a state election.”

Originally published as Dramatic predictions for real estate after Qld election