Aussies suburbs where home prices are plunging and red flags for buyers to beware of: PropTrack

Suburbs where home values plunged in 2024 have been outed, with one losing more than $1m in a year. And experts have revealed another key red flag to beware of.

A Toorak mansion in Melbourne connected with famed AFL player Nathan Buckley and his ex-wife Tania has had its asking price reduced by more than $1m in 2024.

The Aussie suburbs where home prices are plunging as much as $1m in a year at a time when most of the nation booms have been revealed.

And they’ve sparked a warning that buyers need to beware if they’re seeing values drop alongside one other major red flag: empty open for inspections.

New PropTrack data shows the Murray River township of Tocumwal on the NSW border with Victoria had the nation’s biggest drop in percentage terms, with the median house price falling $130,000 (22.4 per cent) to $450,000.

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It was followed by Melbourne’s most illustrious postcode, Toorak where the $4.828m median house value is down an eye-watering $1.283m (21 per cent) in the 12 months to November 30.

PropTrack economist Angus Moore said with Melbourne’s wider property market dropping 1.16 per cent over the past 12 months, it was possible there was more volatility in response to changing types of homes being listed for sale that could be a factor in many of the areas.

“Toorak has come off a very, very high base, and it is quite susceptible to the types of homes for sale,” Mr Moore said.

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If more smaller homes sell in a year than the previous year this can lower a suburb’s median price, without necessarily meaning individual home values have decreased.

Real Estate Buyers Agents Association of Australia president Melinda Jennison concurred with Mr Moore’s perspective that compositional factors could influence suburb-level median prices, and potentially mean individual homes had not lost value.

However, she noted buyers should be alert to additional red flags in suburbs where prices appeared to be in decline.

2 Clement Court, Tocumwal, sold for $929,000 in December and gives an idea of what you get for your money in the suburb.

Home values fell in Narooma this year. No. 4 Farncombe Ave sold for $950,000 in November.

“Pay attention to how many buyers are turning up to open homes,” Ms Jennison said.

“If you are the only one there, that’s a sign you might be able to negotiate — though it depends on the motivation of the vendor.

“But if you are the only person looking at the property, you have got to understand why that’s the case. So that you are minimising your risk.”

Contrasting the number of homes for sale in an area today against traditional norms could also provide important additional detail, and a sense of whether the decline in home values could be a short-term trend.

Australia’s Biggest House Value Falls

Tocumwal (NSW): $450,000, down 22.4%

Toorak (Melbourne): $4,828,000, down 21.0%

Narooma (NSW): $790,000, down 19.4%

Barwon Heads (Victoria): $1,415,000, down 18.6%

Portland (NSW): $410,000, down 17.4%

South Yarra (Melbourne): $1.845m, down 17.4%

The town of Mittagong in NSW recorded a fall in its median price in 2024. No. 4 Leopold St sold for $1.15m in November.

Bayview (Sydney): $2.81m, down 17.4%

Throsby (Canberra): $962,000, down 16.3%

Warracknabeal (Victoria): $205,000, down 16.3%

Mittagong (NSW): $921,000, down 16.2%

Median value declines across the 12 months to November 30, 2024

Source: PropTrack

Holiday hotspots also featured heavily, with house prices Narooma in regional NSW dropping $190,000 (19.4 per cent) to $790,000 and Barwon Heads in coastal Victoria taking a $323,000 (18.6 per cent) hit to fall to $1.415m.

Ms Jennison said falls in these areas weren’t necessarily surprising given interest rates were putting pressure on people who own a holiday home.

“During Covid we had huge demand in some of these lifestyle locations and that pushed prices up,” Ms Jennison said.

“We are seeing the exact opposite now. We are seeing people move back towards capital city markets.”

Holiday hotspots are now less competitive than they were during the pandemic. No. 4 Curlew Court, Barwon Heads, sold for $1.75m last month.

Toorak’s apartment market also lost ground in 2024. This unit at 1/633 Malvern Rd sold for $800,000 in November, in an indication of what you get for your money there.

Affordable unit markets also had values drop, with areas such as Sunshine in Melbourne shedding $161,000 (25.3 per cent) in the past year to reach a $475,000 median, and those in Port Headland in WA also dropping about $118,000 to drop to $426,000.

Ms Jennison noted that reduced borrowing capacity and shrinking home budgets could be a particular factor in some areas.

“Most parts of the market have been impacted by cost of living pressures, but some have been more affected than others,” she said.

Australia’s Biggest Unit Value Falls

Toorak (Melbourne): $901,000, down 38.3%

Sunshine (Melbourne): $475,000, down 25.3%

Forrest (Canberra): $820,000, down 24.6%

Canterbury (Melbourne): $968,000, down 22.7%

Port Hedland (WA): $426,000, down 21.8%

12/44 Counihan Cres, Port Hedland, sold for $700,000 in May. Since then, unit values in the area have declined significantly.

Milsons Point (Sydney): $1.85m, down 21.3%

Balwyn (Melbourne): $999,000, down 20.9%

Crows Nest (Sydney): $900,000, down 20.7%

Point Frederick (Sydney): $695,000, down 20.1%

Tewantin (Queensland): $625,000, down 19.7%

Median value declines across the 12 months to November 30, 2024

Source: PropTrack

A prevalence of older homes in need of work in certain areas could also explain price drops as buyers had been giving them a wide berth in 2024 due to the high cost of having building work done.

“And a lot of it could come back to local matters, sometimes there’s just more homes for sale and that could put pressure on prices,” she said.

“We have seen more areas across Melbourne and Sydney fall into a space where there’s more supply, and that will slow down the market.

“If buyers have more choice, they will move ahead and find more motivated vendors.”

64/236 Pacific Highway, Crows Nest, recently sold for $1.865m. The wider area’s median unit price declined by 20.7 per cent this year.

87/5 Empire Circuit, Forrest, sold for $695,000. The Canberra suburb was among the nation’s poorest performers for home values in 2024.

Mr Moore added that in many cases, areas where values have fallen in 2024 have had substantial growth in prior years, and those selling still made profits.

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Originally published as Aussies suburbs where home prices are plunging and red flags for buyers to beware of: PropTrack