What happens now the UK has voted to leave the EU?

WITH Britain voting to leave the European Union, the attention has turned immediately to what happens next?

Leave EU supporters wave Union flags and cheer as the results come in. Picture: Geoff Caddick/AFP

WITH Britain voting to leave the European Union, attention has turned to what happens next?

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FIRST, FIND A NEW PM

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned from his position after the shock decision to leave the EU. He said he would remain as caretaker until October before handing over to a new leader to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

THEN FOR A BIT, NOTHING ...

The referendum vote is not binding and so nothing changes immediately.

It’s up to the government to move forward - but Cameron’s resignation recognises the pressure on officials to act on the result.

Leave EU supporters wave Union flags and cheer as the results come in. Picture: Geoff Caddick

“Nothing happens automatically, that’s part of the reason there’s so much uncertainty,” Ryan Goss of the Australian National University Law School told news.com.au.

“What happens next will rely on the political choices made by politicians and diplomats.”

NEXT STEPS

If they do act, it’s likely to involve invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which is the document that governs the European Union.

“The catch is, there will probably be a huge debate on when to trigger this,” Mr Goss said.

This is because invoking Article 50 essentially starts the clock on negotiations, giving the UK and the European Union two years to come to an agreement on a future relationship.

“It’s a divorce negotiation essentially, a very complicated one,” Mr Goss said.

If there is no agreement after two years, the UK would be out automatically.

WHAT ABOUT THE (NEW) PRIME MINISTER?

Cameron fell on his sword because he called the referendum, led the Remain campaign, and lost.

He has resigned, but indicated he’ll stay on as caretaker until October.

“There is no need for a precise timetable today. But in my view we should aim to have a new prime minister in place by the start of the Conservative party conference in October.,” he said.

“The British people have made a very clear decision to take a different path and as such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.

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Gone: David Cameron has already fallen on his sword. Picture: Geoff Caddick

Brexit - Britain votes to leave the EU

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“I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months. But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.”

Mr Goss said the Brexit vote had divided the community but also members of the Conservative Party

“So you could have a prime minister Boris Johnson or a prime minister Michael Gove, or someone else on the Leave side of the debate,” he said.

Could Boris be the next PM? Picture: Odd Andersen

SO NOTHING WILL CHANGE YET?

While the formal mechanism to leave the EU may not be trigged for a couple of years, Mr Goss said there could still be immediate impacts.

“For example businesses might change where they invest their money, or some people might move countries sooner.”

Britain’s exit could follow a gradual phase out, or it could be sudden switch where laws and other policies change on an agreed day.

“Britain would be facing potentially weeks, months or even years of uncertainty,” he said.

While Greenland left an earlier, more limited version of the bloc in 1985, no country has ever invoked Article 50, so there is no road map for how the process will work.

The European Union is the world’s biggest economy and the UK’s most important trading partner, accounting for 45 per cent of exports and 53 per cent of imports.

Leaving the EU would involve repealing all sorts of laws as there is a huge amount of EU laws that apply in the UK, as well as British members of the European parliament. It will impact where people can live and work, what trade laws apply.

In addition, the complex nature of Britain’s integration with the EU means that breaking up will be hard to do. The negotiations will go far beyond tariffs, including issues such as cross-border security, foreign policy co-operation and a common fisheries policy.

Among the biggest challenges for Britain is protecting the ability of professionals such as investment managers, accountants and lawyers to work in the EU.

“Millions of British people live in the EU and millions of Europeans live in Britain,” Mr Goss said. “We don’t yet know how they will untangle this.”

This uncertainty could extend to what laws applied where and how trade with the EU and other countries was conducted.

“There are proposals for all these different things but we don’t know for sure what will happen.”

With no agreed definition of what a “Leave” vote would actually look like, there are other models that the UK could also follow.

This includes creating a relationship similar to Norway’s, which is not a member of the EU but is part of the European Free Trade Association. It enjoys some of the trade benefits of being in the EU but has less of a say about shaping its rules.

— With AAP

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