Expert: Brexit result could spark breakup of European Union

THERE are fears Britain’s shock Brexit result could have a domino effect and ultimately have a disastrous effect on Europe and the world.

A worker on a lift adjusts the member flags in front of European Union headquarters in Brussels today. Picture: Virginia Mayo

BRITAIN’S shock “vote to leave” prediction could have a domino effect and ultimately lead to the break up of the European Union, an expert says.

Dr Annmarie Elijah, Associate Director at the Australian National University’s Centre for European Studies, said confirmation of a leave vote would likely spark a wave of similar referendums in member countries.

Before that happened, however, the world would be watching to see how Britain dealt with the division that has emerged within its own borders in the wake of the referendum.

“It’s clear that there has been a massive misreading of public opinion about this issue,” Dr Elijah said.

“The statements being made now by other member countries as these results come in are playing right into the hands of people who did not want to be told by Brussels about what was going on in their own country.

“In some ways this is not the result that was expected and Brussels is not handling the public relations side of it well.”

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Leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage, reacts to the Leave result. Picture: Geoff Caddick

This will see the break up of the EU. Scotland will have another referendum &be independent seeing the break up of the UK. A really sad day

— Mike Johnston-Cowley (@Mikeyc1981) June 24, 2016

Okay. The break up of the EU is happening. All it will take is a French referendum I would hope #fail #EURefResults pic.twitter.com/qhwMcDvWPo

— David Hicks (@David_Hicks) June 24, 2016

@nl_0223 the wrong answer for the elite. The big fear of the EU from the UK referendum was the break up of the Union. I wish NL well 😃

— Charlie Brown (@peejay_61) June 24, 2016

The British public has voted 52 to 48 per cent to leave the European Union.

The shock result comes after polls swung wildly during the course of the night’s voting.

The Leave vote initially took the lead, before Remain took over but not for long. It was finally pipped at the post by Leave.

“What happens when it’s confirmed is that the Prime Minister, David Cameron, would then make a recommendation to the European Council and then after that negotiations begin,” Dr Elijah said.

“What’s not clear at all is what the terms will be but it’s hoped it will be a peaceful divorce. “That could lead to other members calling for their own referendums and could lead to a break up of the EU.

“However, the one thing we have to accept right now is that we have a Britain divided, both politically and geographically and that will have a major destabilising effect within that country.”

Scotland will almost certainly now hold another referendum for independence after the country overwhelming voted to remain in the European Union unlike the vote in England and Wales which saw a future outside the EU.

But the unprecedented schism created by the referendum result could lead to a broader break up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland also looking to a future with the Republic of Ireland.

Almost two thirds (62 per cent) of Scots who voted had backed staying part of the EU, with 38 per cent opting for Brexit; Remain won out in all 32 local authorities.

Both Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish parliament’s External Affairs Secretary Fiona Hylsop both warned that a decision by the UK to quit Europe would have “consequences”.

“Scotland clearly and decisively voted to remain part of the European Union, 62 to 38 with an increased turn out form the Scottish Parliament elections barely six weeks ago,” Ms Hyslop said.

“That sends a strong message, it’s quite clear we see a different type of politics in Scotland, a different approach to constitutional affairs.”

No one seemed more surprised by the result than Leave campaigner Nigel Farage, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader, who initially predicted a narrow Remain win.

Hours later he tweeted: “I now dare to dream that the dawn is coming up on an independent United Kingdom.”

Leaders across the world also seemed to be in shock.

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt called the results “beyond comprehension”.

Former Downing Street spin doctor Alastair Campbell has said the UK was entering “uncharted territory”.

The result put pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron’s leadership, with Mr Cameron leading the Remain campaign.

Supporters of the 'Stronger In' campaign react with dismay as results of the EU referendum are announced at the Royal Festival Hall in London. Picture: Rob Stothard

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull described it as a “momentous and historic decision”.

“We respect the wishes of the British people,” he said. “However, there will be a period of uncertainty and some instability in global markets”.

But Mr Turnbull reassured Australians there was no cause for alarm.

“I recognise, will be concerned by the uncertainty and instability in global markets, falls in currencies, including the Australian dollar and in equity markets,” he said.

“It is important to remember that the Australian economy is strong and resilient and has weathered global shocks before and weathered them well.”

While the unsettled conditions are not of his making, Brexit is seen as likely to favour Mr Turnbull over Bill Shorten in the upcoming election on July 2.

On the back of the news the pound fell to $US1.37 — a drop of more than seven per cent from its highs of $US1.50 hours earlier.

The odds on a Remain victory plunged to just 10 per cent on Betfair. When the polls closed, the odds were more than 90 per cent.

“Despite the close nature of the count, markets are on the move,” Bill O’Neill, head of UK investment at UBS Wealth Management, told the BBC. “We are clearly seeing a very dramatic flight to safe-havens across markets in Asia.

“Sterling has fallen very sharply and is struggling to hold $1.40 against the US dollar. US Treasuries are showing substantial declines in yields.

“Gold has risen by about two per cent overnight. We are also seeing advances in so-called safe haven currencies such as the Yen and Swiss Franc. Stock market futures have also registered significant falls.”

Irish republican party Sinn Fein said the results could renew a push for a united Ireland.

UK Green Party leader Caroline Lucas said: “People have been sold a sort of snake oil — they’ve been told leaving the EU will solve a whole lot of problems.”

At one point the pound fell to its lowest since 1985.

— Additional reporting, Charles Miranda in London