RBA won't meet again until February

BORROWERS will have to wait until February for more mortgage relief with the central bank unlikely to interrupt their summer break and cut the cash rate on Tuesday, economists say.

BORROWERS will have to wait until February for more mortgage relief with the central bank unlikely to interrupt their summer break and cut the cash rate on Tuesday, economists say.

Economists said no cataclysmic financial event had occurred since the Reserve Bank's (RBA) last monthly meeting on December 2 to warrant an unscheduled board gathering on the first Tuesday of the month.

The central bank cut the cash rate by 1 percentage point to 4.25 per cent in December.

ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said the chance of the RBA cutting the official interest rate before the next board meeting set for Tuesday, February 3 was "minuscule''.

"About five per cent,'' Mr Carr said.

"Market conditions have not deteriorated further and the data is basically reflecting what the world was like post-Lehmans (in mid-September),'' Mr Carr said.

"Nothing seems to have occurred that could plausibly point to that view changing.''

In December, RBA governor Glenn Stevens would not rule out a meeting in January to lower the cash rate if economic conditions forced the central bank to do so.

When asked, Mr Stevens replied he would not be in the office on the first Tuesday of this month but would not be far from the office.

"No meeting has been scheduled for this time, but the option is open in any month to do something inter-meeting if there's a big event to cause it.''

The RBA last moved the cash rate in a January when it cut by one percentage point to 7.5 per cent in 1992.

Since September 2008, the RBA board cut the cash rate by three percentage points in a bid to boost a flagging domestic economy.

The RBA's large cut in December factored in no scheduled meeting for January and the thin amount of economic data released during that time.

"Overall, members judged the the two-month break between meetings was one consideration in favour of a substantial reduction in interest rates at this meeting,'' the minutes said.

ANZ senior economist Riki Polygenis said there was a "fairly low'' probability of the RBA cutting rates this January.

"They flagged in the minutes of the December board meeting that part of the reason for the 100 basis points move was that they felt they needed a break in January,'' she said.

NAB Capital senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said little had happened likely to change the RBA's mindset.

"There has not been anything to cause any increased panic or concern that would cause them to a mid-meeting cut,'' Mr Papadopoulos said.

"Really now it is all about waiting to get a gauge on the December economic data, which will trickle in over the next few weeks,'' he said.