These 14 stock experts give their key mining picks for 2025: Part Two

In the second part of our end-of-year special, seven more fundies and analysts give their commodity and resources stock picks for 2025.

At least he died doing what he loved: taking a punt on speculative explorers. Pic: Getty Images

In our Xmas gift to you, beloved Stockhead reader, we give our 2025 Experts' Digest.

Fourteen Australian stockpickers have come to the party with 59 – THAT'S RIGHT, 59 – large and small cap mining stocks they see with upside next year, plus which commodity's and themes they are playing and avoiding in 2025.

Seven fundies and analysts are on the roster for part two. But first a few little little themes we picked up.

As to be expected, gold and copper were the commodities on everyone's lips. Close to half of our respondents, six for each metal, picked gold and copper as the market to play.

The most reviled metal was nickel, which had four picks for worst commodity in 2025. One contrarian bet from Sanlam Private Wealth's Ben Faulkner tipped a quicker than expected rebound for nickel prices.

Lithium bets are also more bearish than bullish, with four tips in the worst commodity idea list, but two tipping an early revival in 2025. More fundies thought iron ore would struggle than prosper amid weak Chinese economic activity but met coal received support.

Uranium, alumina and silver also saw some love, with three picks on the right side of the ledger and none on the bad side for each of uranium, silver and coking coal.

The most selected name among our respondents was AIC Mines. The $178 million-capped owner of the Eloise copper mine in Queensland was three analysts' choice to play their bullish copper thesis.

Silver explorer Sun Silver, lithium hopeful Vulcan Energy Resources, African goldie Toubani Resources and gold exploration success story Spartan Resources all received two votes.

Gold names were by far the best represented, with 15 of the 59 companies primarily focused on gold mining and exploration. Most are ASX listed, with three expected to plan listings in H1 2025, including the London-listed owner of the Telfer gold mine, Greatland Gold.

Dermot Woods – Precision Funds Management

Best commodity/investing idea

Lithium: Everybody who said it was stronger for longer in 2021/22 are now saying it's going to be in the basement for two years – very good sign. We also like coking coal, copper and uranium. They will all get a proper supply squeeze sometime in next year or two.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Aussie banking stocks: Horrifically overvalued, will have to come back to pack.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Spartan Resources (ASX:SPR) – Owner of Never Never gold discovery in WA. Will see more exploration success and a possible takeover in 2025.

Encounter Resources (ASX:ENR) – Kaleidoscopic explorer, has made a potential niobium discovery near market darling WA1 Resources (ASX:WA1). Same thesis as Spartan.

Toubani Resources (ASX:TRE) – Gold deposit holder in Mali. A possible flyer. Could do anything if Mali tax negative news flow for Resolute and Barrick dissipates.

Rusty Delroy – Nero Resource Fund

Best commodity/investing idea

PGEs, particularly palladium: Currently trades deeply into the cost curve. Consensus demand forecasts underestimate the uptake of PHEV and REEV autos, which both require catalytic converters. Consensus supply numbers overestimate the supply from recycling, which has little to no incentive at spot commodity prices combined with higher cost of capital (interest rates). Stockpile is largely eroded. Something has to give. We like the physical metal (PALL:NYSE) combined with a mix of producer/explorer names for leverage.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Steel and steel related commodities (particularly iron ore): These feel fragile going into next year. Combined with some ‘ambitious concepts’ around hydrogen we will go with an FMG short for the downside leverage play.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Stellar Resources (ASX:SRZ) – Owns the high-grade Heemskirk deposit in Tasmania. Tin is a commodity we very much like the structural dynamics of and Stellar has a first-world, high-grade, development asset which is incredibly hard to find in a boutique and under-appreciated metal (critical in electronics).

Toubani Resources (ASX:TRE) – Obviously Mali is not flavour of the month but this is probably the deepest value gold play on either the ASX or TSX. High margin, scale production, simple mining and metallurgy.

Jupiter Mines (ASX:JMS) – Cheap, long-life manganese producer.

Xanadu Mines (ASX:XAM) – Copper takeover target.

Peel Mining (ASX:PEX) – Copper takeover target.

3D Energi (ASX:TDO) – Tiny cap oil junior with leverage to high probability exploration wells.

Luke Laretive – Seneca Financial Solutions

Best commodity/investing idea

Silver: Demand looks strong, and there's not a lot of near-term supply to fill the market. But I really think it's that energy complex – thermal coal, oil, natural gas, natural hydrogen, lithium and silver (as much of the incremental demand is from solar).

Worst commodity/investing idea

Antimony: I can't see that continuing. It's up over 100% last 12 months, that doesn't go on forever.

Stocks to watch in 2025

James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY) – We think there is a lot of potential at Battle Mountain, and the team have been able to pull off a near-miracle making that acquisition at the price they did.

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) – Far too cheap relative to their peers.

Top End Energy (ASX:TEE) – More speculative, but drilling in 2025 and we think natural hydrogen is the smokey of 2025.

Other picks include Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL), AIC Mines (ASX:A1M), Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR), Red Hill Minerals (ASX:RHI), Stanmore Coal (ASX:SMR), Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8), and New Hope Corp (ASX:NHC).

Ben Faulkner – Sanlam Private Wealth

Best commodity/investing idea

Copper: We see copper demand growing in 2025 and catching up with supply, which should see an imbalance in the market to favour higher prices. The upside risk here is that China’s economy fires up again in 2025 after the numerous stimulus measures put in place recently.

Nickel: Every market commentator is bearish nickel due to cheap supply out of Indonesia and other low cost producers flooding the market. We think the worst has passed and many of those “dirty” producers have been shut down with no new licences granted for such production methods.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Oil: The oil market remains over supplied and we continue to see OPEC members running their own agenda and not sticking to supply quotas. We expect more of this to happen in 2025 and non OPEC members also increase production.

Iron ore: We see the iron ore market being over supplied in 2025 as more production globally comes online. Without any real signs of demand to take on this supply we expect prices to trend lower.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Western Mines Group (ASX:WMG) – WMG owns the Mulga Tank project, which unveiled the discovery of a major komatiite hosted nickel sulphide mineral system under cover in WA. WMG has continued aggressive exploration regardless of the noise and negative sentiment in the nickel market at the moment. Many juniors flip around to the “hottest” commodity where WMG has been dedicated to exploration at Mulga Tank over three years as it’s a world class quality project and this has paid off for them. With a market cap of $15m we think in a better nickel market this stock is worth multiples of that.

QMines (ASX:QML) – QMines is a Queensland-based copper and gold exploration and development company. QML owns rights to 100% of the Mt Chalmers (Cu-Au) and Develin Creek (Cu-Zn) deposits. Mt Chalmers and Develin Creek now have a measured, indicated and inferred JORC 2012 resource of 15.1Mt at 1.3% CuEq for 195,800t CuEq. QML completed a pre-feasibilty study this year which showed robust economics with a 10+ year mine life. QML offers copper and gold exposure with the opportunity for the company to continue to find new discoveries and progress to the development of their mine. QML has a small market cap of $20m which we believe offers compelling value for a company with such advanced assets.

Disclaimer: Sanlam Private Wealth was lead manager to past capital raisings of the companies listed above and earned fees from those and other capital raising services. Sanlam staff and Ben Faulkner are also shareholders of the companies mentioned above.

Romano Sala Tenna – Katana Asset Management

Best commodity/investing idea

Met coal: I’m tempted to run with oil as it has underperformed for the past two years. However, the supply-demand outlook still looks decidedly soft at this juncture. I think therefore it comes down to gold or metallurgical coal. The latter is marginally in front, predicated on the long term supply-demand deficit due to the emergence of India as a genuine economic powerhouse. Whether it's 2025 or 2026, we are confident that the met coal price will be somewhat higher given the growing demand from India and lack of new or even replacement supply.

Worst commodity/investing idea

None: Difficult! 2024 has been a challenging year for most commodities. There have been a handful of standout performers, but most commodities have been sold off; predicated on nervousness around the Chinese economy. From these already depressed levels, we don’t see an obvious candidate to underperform (further) during 2025.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) – Whilst it doesn’t play in to the met coal thematic, we nonetheless believe that MIN will have a strong year in 2025. MIN has been one of the very best performers in terms of total shareholder return (TSR) for nearly two decades. 2024 was a year from hell, with governance issues, declining commodity prices and record debt all converging to create the perfect storm. Investors need to remember the record debt was a product of record growth. The Onslow iron ore project will be fully operational by mid-2025 and this is the largest and most lucrative project in the company's long history.

Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) – WHC plays directly to our view that the met coal price will be notably stronger in the coming months and years. Additionally, its share price is also likely to be driven by its purchase of the Daunia and Blackwater met coal mines from BHP. These were truly remarkable acquisitions, whereby WHC doubled the size of the business without issuing a single new share. There are signs costs have well and truly peaked and are on their way down. WHC is the cheapest stock in the ASX100 by a margin. Once the sentiment improves, the rerating is likely to be rapid.

Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) – A higher risk, higher return way to gain exposure to the met coal price. CRN has had a horrible 2024, more than halving from $1.76 per share to the low 80c range. The declining met coal price during 2024, combined with a string of operational issues, has undermined investor confidence. However, the consensus PER for CY25 is

Gavin Wendt – MineLife

Best commodity/investing idea

Precious metals: A prudent bet for 2025. Strong investment demand fundamentals remain in place, supported by rising debt levels, global currency weakness, central bank buying and global political and economic uncertainty. Gold remains the standout commodity for 2025 as the factors that have driven it to record highs in 2024 remain prevalent.  Silver, too will follow in gold's path. The gold ratio is 88:1. The last three times it has been this inexpensive relative to gold, silver went on to rally 40%, 300% and 400%. Conversely, the three times the ratio has fallen below 20 in the past, it has marked a period when gold was relatively inexpensive compared to silver. History therefore suggests that the current conditions represent a buying opportunity in silver.

Worst commodity/investing idea

None, but Wendt says the outlook for China dominated commodities and those reliant on Chinese economic demand including nickel, zinc, copper, iron ore and rare earths remain under pressure.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Auric Mining (ASX:AWJ) – Auric has achieved production status via a relatively low-risk strategy of contract mining and toll treatment, firstly at its Jeffreys Find gold deposit and shortly at its Munda deposit, both in Western Australia. Proving that miners don't have to be big to be hugely successful, AWJ's strong share price performance reflects its success. The next two stages of mining at Jeffreys Find will generate additional net cash of $7-10m before mining and production commences at Munda.

Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) – Owns the Maverick Springs silver deposit in Nevada, having listed in May this year. Reprocessing of historical drill data increased the inferred mineral resource to 423Moz silver equivalent – 253.3Moz of silver and 2Moz of gold from 195.74Mt ore, with average grades of 40.25g/t silver and 0.32g/t gold. Encouragingly, the upgrade did not include results from the company's ongoing inaugural drill program, which encountered high-grade silver in the northwest section of Maverick Springs, an area outside the existing resource where historic drilling identified grades up to 6216g/t silver. We like Sun Silver as it’s a silver play in a first-rate location.

QPM Energy (ASX:QPM) – QPM Energy has pivoted neatly to become an emerging gas producer and electricity supplier in Queensland's Bowen Basin, at a time of rising energy prices, and as the AEMO warns of increased blackout risk in Queensland due to hot weather, high demand and aging coal plants. QPM should see strong sales revenue in 2025 on the back of gas production growth and electricity generation.

Strike Energy (ASX:STX) – STX maintains a dominant position within the Perth Basin’s Permian Gas Fairway, which has the potential to develop into one of Australia’s largest onshore gas resources. Along these lines, in 2023 the company launched its fully funded gas acceleration strategy, which is targeting up to four sources of gas production (Walyering, Ocean Hill, and South and West Erregulla) to come online by the end of 2025. Strike has also committed itself to the development of the $137M South Erregulla fully integrated peaking gas power station development, which will be completed before October 2026.

Peter Kormendy – Shaw and Partners

Best commodity/investing idea

Bauxite/alumina/aluminium, copper, coking coal, gold and uranium. We also think lithium has bottomed and now is a good time to look at the higher quality resources.

Worst commodity/investing idea

Not supplied.

Stocks to watch in 2025

Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN), Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) and Silex Systems (ASX:SLX) (uranium mid-tiers) – The uranium market is structurally under-supplied and demand for nuclear energy (decarbonising electricity grids, AI/data centres) is likely to see the shortage of supply become an increasingly large problem for the power utilities. We expect to see uranium spike higher through the course of this decade and see little to cap the upside.

Metro Mining (ASX:MMI) – Ships bauxite to China and is trading at just 3.7x PE and 1.5x EV/EBITDA in 2025. Bauxite prices are rising due to strong demand from China at a time of supply disruptions in Guinea, China and an export ban from Indonesia.

AIC Mines (ASX:A1M) – Queensland copper miner has growth options with the nearby Jericho deposit and regional exploration.

Patriot Battery Metals (ASX:PMT) – Current 142.6mt at 1.39% Li2O resource at Shaakichiuwaanaan in Quebec, Canada, is the largest lithium resource in North America.

Santana Minerals (ASX:SMI) and Southern Cross Gold (ASX:SXG) – The gold price has hit all time highs in 2024 but looks likely to push higher in 2025 as the US enters its rate cut cycle, global geo-political tensions remain elevated and central banks purchase gold as an alternative to the US$. Santana has 2.5Moz at Bendigo-Ophir in New Zealand. SXG continues to drill high grade intercepts at Sunday Creek, 60km north of Melbourne.

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interviews in this article are solely those of the interviewees and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

Stockhead does not provide, endorse or otherwise assume responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Spartan Resources, Sun Silver, QPM Energy, QMines, James Bay Minerals, Top End Energy and Toubani Resources are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

Originally published as These 14 stock experts give their key mining picks for 2025: Part Two