Bulk Buys: The top iron ore and coal gainers in 2024

The ASX’s big iron ore and coal stocks let down the local market in 2024, but there were a handful of bulk winners.

They were hard to find, but there were still winners in iron ore and coal in 2024. Pic: Getty Images

• Bulk commodities again defied the odds, with iron ore and coal prices remaining solid in 2024

• This year's fastest rising iron ore stock flames out on penultimate day of trade

• Mongolian coal explorer Aspire leads coal stocks in 2024

It's December and that means, again, we're going to see plenty of predictions about the state of the iron ore and steel market.

Almost invariably, the big end of town will be tipping a decline, predicated on their fairly obvious logic that the Chinese economy, and specifically its property sector, are borked.

“US tariffs on China, changing nature of Chinese stimulus and new low-cost supply push the market into further surplus and weigh on prices," said Goldman Sachs' commodities strategist Aurelia Waltham as the bank kept its annual 62% Fe price forecast at US$95/t for 2025, falling to US$90/t next year.

That supply is coming, variously, from Brazil, Australia and Africa. The latter is largely the introduction of the high-grade Simandou to the market, even if Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) CEO Jakob Stausholm dulled expectations for much output in 2025 at this month's investor day.

He says the aim is just to get ore on ship this year and prove it works, rather than set clear guidance.

The commodity has regularly frustrated bears in recent years, continuing to trade above US$100/t in Singapore on Monday, with a number of small high cost miners now providing a moat of marginal supply that will come out of the market before the low-cost Pilbara producers are impacted.

Still, they rise and fall on sentiment and the market has been down on large miners this year.

BHP (ASX:BHP) shares fell over 21% in 2024, Rio's dropped 14% and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) suffered a 37% pratfall as it chopped staff and abandoned green hydrogen targets.

Among the coal producers, who saw met coal prices for steelmaking drop from close to US$300/t to US$199/t (thermal was mild also at US$125/t, majors also fell.

Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) was down 21%, New Hope Corp (ASX:NHC) off 6% and Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) collapsed close to 58%.

Yet there were still a handful of iron ore and coal miners in the green. Here's how the sector performed in 2024.

Iron ore miners 2024

CODE	COMPANY	PRICE	WEEK %	MONTH %	6 MONTH %	YEAR %	YTD %	MARKET CAP
ACS	Accent Resources NL	0.006	0%	0%	-14%	-25%	-25%	$ 2,838,763.70
ADY	Admiralty Resources.	0.006	0%	0%	-40%	-14%	-14%	$ 15,776,876.39
AKO	Akora Resources	0.1	0%	-17%	-31%	-33%	-33%	$ 12,510,276.10
BCK	Brockman Mining Ltd	0.015	-6%	-12%	-21%	-46%	-46%	$ 129,923,249.83
BHP	BHP Group Limited	39.765	0%	0%	-8%	-21%	-21%	$ 201,789,050,246.76
CIA	Champion Iron Ltd	5.785	2%	2%	-11%	-28%	-31%	$ 3,031,768,355.85
CZR	CZR Resources Ltd	0.21	5%	-7%	-30%	0%	0%	$ 49,714,275.87
DRE	Dreadnought Resources Ltd	0.012	20%	-20%	-43%	-60%	-60%	$ 43,329,700.00
EFE	Eastern Resources	0.028	8%	-13%	-44%	-65%	-65%	$ 3,530,518.52
CUF	Cufe Ltd	0.009	13%	29%	-31%	-40%	-36%	$ 13,366,748.65
FEX	Fenix Resources Ltd	0.255	-2%	-7%	-19%	-2%	-11%	$ 192,697,578.84
FMG	Fortescue Ltd	18.495	2%	-1%	-15%	-35%	-36%	$ 57,022,430,281.36
RHK	Red Hawk Mining Ltd	0.845	4%	17%	13%	43%	43%	$ 166,842,584.97
GEN	Genmin	0.04	-2%	11%	-67%	-75%	-75%	$ 35,451,444.08
GRR	Grange Resources.	0.22	0%	-10%	-42%	-53%	-53%	$ 254,614,513.56
HAV	Havilah Resources	0.22	5%	16%	13%	13%	13%	$ 74,636,385.12
HAW	Hawthorn Resources	0.041	0%	-15%	-31%	-57%	-56%	$ 13,735,640.13
HIO	Hawsons Iron Ltd	0.017	0%	-6%	-37%	-62%	-64%	$ 17,788,773.94
IRD	Iron Road Ltd	0.059	4%	-2%	-24%	-16%	-12%	$ 49,927,475.04
JNO	Juno	0.024	-4%	0%	-33%	-79%	-78%	$ 4,366,686.24
LCY	Legacy Iron Ore	0.01	11%	0%	-20%	-35%	-39%	$ 87,858,383.26
MAG	Magmatic Resrce Ltd	0.031	-3%	-24%	-46%	-37%	-37%	$ 12,928,572.13
MDX	Mindax Limited	0.04	0%	0%	-11%	-27%	-33%	$ 81,951,351.20
MGT	Magnetite Mines	0.13	13%	-7%	-52%	-55%	-58%	$ 13,842,140.76
MGU	Magnum Mining & Exp	0.009	-10%	-25%	-36%	-67%	-68%	$ 7,284,252.63
MGX	Mount Gibson Iron	0.305	3%	3%	-27%	-44%	-45%	$ 367,497,523.47
MIN	Mineral Resources.	34.19	4%	2%	-39%	-51%	-51%	$ 6,732,727,373.04
MIO	Macarthur Minerals	0.044	2%	-14%	-25%	-69%	-65%	$ 8,785,282.44
PFE	Pantera Lithium	0.018	0%	-10%	-39%	-63%	-64%	$ 8,528,106.38
PLG	Pearlgullironlimited	0.014	0%	0%	-18%	-53%	-53%	$ 2,863,585.06
RHI	Red Hill Minerals	4.11	0%	0%	-16%	9%	9%	$ 264,205,815.00
RIO	Rio Tinto Limited	117.66	1%	0%	-3%	-13%	-13%	$ 43,369,190,281.62
RLC	Reedy Lagoon Corp.	0.002	0%	0%	-33%	-60%	-60%	$ 1,523,413.35
CTN	Catalina Resources	0.003	0%	0%	0%	-25%	-33%	$ 3,731,285.68
SRK	Strike Resources	0.027	4%	-13%	-34%	-45%	-45%	$ 8,512,500.00
SRN	Surefire Rescs NL	0.0035	-13%	-13%	-56%	-59%	-59%	$ 7,232,077.35
TI1	Tombador Iron	0.35	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	$ 30,213,639.40
TLM	Talisman Mining	0.205	-2%	-7%	-18%	-7%	-13%	$ 37,664,069.80
EQN	Equinoxresources	0.105	0%	-30%	-67%	-62%	-65%	$ 13,004,250.32
AMD	Arrow Minerals	0.002	100%	0%	0%	-60%	-60%	$ 26,447,255.57
CTM	Centaurus Metals Ltd	0.345	3%	-21%	-18%	-33%	-36%	$ 176,328,930.62
LM1	Leeuwin Metals Ltd	0.125	25%	71%	150%	-14%	-11%	$ 6,559,233.94
M4M	Macro Metals Limited	0.011	-31%	22%	-69%	267%	175%	$ 56,009,156.57

In a sign that numbers can, in fact, lie, Macro Metals (ASX:M4M) was our top performing iron ore stock of 2024.

Until this week the penny stock's near 200% gain could only have been seen in a positive light, as the company shook up its board and negotiated access to ground near the Mt Goldsworthy iron ore mine, a high grade DSO operation close to port which produced for BHP up to 1983.

That excitement completely dissipated yesterday as the explorer revealed it had no significant hits either there or at the Wandanya manganese project.

The silver lining is its acquisition of a small mining services company, not a wholly surprising move given its boss Simon Rushton's background as an executive at Chris Ellison's Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN).

"The outcome at Goldsworthy East and the early indications from Wandanya, while very disappointing, reinforces the decision the board made to pivot the company from a pure play exploration company to a mining services company with a portfolio of exploration assets that will be evaluated using profits derived from mining services rather than continuing to dilute shareholders to fund exploration," Rushton told the market on delivering the negative news on Monday.

Red Hawk Mining (ASX:RHK) is up 43%, the former Flinders Mines with all the baggage of its aborted Balla Balla development (and majority ownership by New Zealand's Todd Corporation) has recaptured at least some of its goodwill with investors with a rethink of its iron ore assets.

Rather than a large, low grade development backed by an antiquated state agreement, the junior is now chasing a smaller +3Mtpa development at the Blacksmith project using road haulage and existing port space in WA's Pilbara.

Feasibility studies are under way after a 2023 scoping study put a $150m price tag on a 3Mtpa operation which would run for 20 years at average C1 costs of US$50/wmt.

Havilah Resources (ASX:HAV) is among the small number of iron ore exposed stocks to finish the year ahead. But its focus in its South Australian minerals portfolio has really been on copper and gold assets.

Red Hill Minerals (ASX:RHI), meanwhile, has been the big winner thus far from MinRes's Onslow Iron project.

The $3 billion development has left MinRes with a large chunk of debt on its balance sheet and it will be a while until the ramp up to 35Mtpa pays dividends for the embattled large cap.

But Red Hill nabbed $200 million in cold hard cash on the sale of its tenements into the project and a $200m this year when the ore hit the high seas, netting a $153m profit after tax.

RHI has been a steady dividend payer in recent years and will get a 0.75% FOB royalty with the project hitting commercial production.

Coal miners 2024

CODE	COMPANY	PRICE	WEEK %	MONTH %	6 MONTH %	YEAR %	YTD %	MARKET CAP
NAE	New Age Exploration	0.004	0%	0%	33%	-33%	-33%	$ 8,575,595.64
CKA	Cokal Ltd	0.06	2%	-19%	-33%	-48%	-50%	$ 64,736,938.80
BCB	Bowen Coal Limited	0.008	33%	14%	-84%	-92%	-92%	$ 75,425,227.55
SVG	Savannah Goldfields	0.022	5%	5%	47%	-50%	-56%	$ 6,183,868.15
AKM	Aspire Mining Ltd	0.26	-4%	-9%	-26%	136%	148%	$ 126,909,246.25
AVM	Advance Metals Ltd	0.034	0%	3%	31%	-8%	-8%	$ 5,728,971.92
YAL	Yancoal Aust Ltd	6.43	3%	4%	0%	31%	30%	$ 8,437,608,002.43
NHC	New Hope Corporation	5.05	1%	9%	3%	-3%	-2%	$ 4,277,397,447.84
TIG	Tigers Realm Coal	0.003	20%	0%	0%	-40%	-45%	$ 39,200,107.10
SMR	Stanmore Resources	3	1%	-8%	-16%	-24%	-25%	$ 2,677,133,152.98
WHC	Whitehaven Coal	6.15	3%	-6%	-19%	-17%	-17%	$ 5,019,604,704.00
BRL	Bathurst Res Ltd.	0.74	0%	-1%	-9%	-23%	-23%	$ 142,951,252.32
CRN	Coronado Global Res	0.75	3%	-20%	-36%	-57%	-57%	$ 1,240,575,760.20
JAL	Jameson Resources	0.04	-11%	-30%	8%	-11%	-11%	$ 24,429,332.88
TER	Terracom Ltd	0.18	6%	-12%	-16%	-56%	-57%	$ 152,183,584.65
ATU	Atrum Coal Ltd	0.00434	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	$ 17,795,849.96
MCM	Mc Mining Ltd	0.115	-23%	-26%	-23%	-23%	-23%	$ 59,514,418.88
DBI	Dalrymple Bay	3.74	6%	12%	28%	38%	39%	$ 1,794,657,234.54
AQC	Auspaccoal Ltd	0.1	3%	-17%	27%	4%	4%	$ 70,046,759.10

Winners in the coal space were similarly hard to find this year.

The biggest, with a 148% gain, was Mongolian coal explorer Aspire Mining (ASX:AKM).

Its successes began with testing in January that showed  coal from its Ovoot deposit matched the spex for fat coal, a grade of Mongolian product that draws a hard coking coal premium in the key Chinese steel market.

Aspire in November updated its resource to 219.4Mt including 99.5Mt measured and 100.9Mt indicated, with a reserve of 130.1Mt including 76.8Mt proved and 53.3Mt probable.

That underpins a "conservative" life of mine plan with 31 years of life at an initial production rate of 1.5Mtpa and up to 5Mtpa of ROM coal mining and processing.

$8.5 billion capped Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) was the top performing large cap with a ~30% gain.

The largely Chinese owned, ASX-listed miner, saw a big lift in its liquidity after a sell off by those majority owners that improved its free float and, finally, saw the thermal coal giant hit the ASX 200.

Its shares hit an all time high of $7.46 in July before a savage sell off from investors concerned their dividends were going to disappear if YAL made a major acquisition.

But its failure in the process for Anglo American's met coal mines (won by Peabody), saw interest in the mainly NSW focused coal miner recover.

Also in the green were Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX:DBI), which announced a $36.8m net profit after tax at its half year results and guided a 4.65% increase in quarterly dividends to 22.5cps for FY2025.

And Australian Pacific Coal (ASX:AQC) was up slightly after selling its first coal from the Dartbrook mine in New South Wales' Hunter Valley, more than eight years after the project's purchase from Anglo.

The International Energy Agency this month revised predictions of a steady decline in coal demand, assuming it will plateau and lift slightly from a record 8.77Bt in 2024 to 8.9Bt in 2027.

The international coal trade was forecast to lift to a record 1.55Bt in 2024, the IEA said.

Originally published as Bulk Buys: The top iron ore and coal gainers in 2024