Health economist reveals big problem with NSW road map on The Project

NSW residents rejoiced at news of the state’s plan to emerge from lockdown, but a top health expert has pointed out a big issue with the road map.

New South Wales announced its road map out of lockdown today, but there are some fears mid-October could be too soon to emerge considering the high level of transmission.

Reports suggest NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant didn’t agree with the plan to open up when 70 per cent of the adult population is fully vaccinated, which is forecasted to happen on October 18.

And now a leading health economist has claimed the road map is “risky”, before declaring he’s glad he “lives in Victoria and not New South Wales”.

Dr Stephen Duckett, director of the health program at the Grattan Institute, was interviewed on The Project on Thursday night’s program, where he pointed out a glaring issue with the 70 per cent benchmark.

“I think the risk with this road map is the numbers we’re talking about. 70 per cent of the adult population, is actually quite a low proportion of the total population,” Dr Duckett said. “So, it’s only 56 per cent of the total population (factoring in children).

“And on top of that, New South Wales is a big state. And so you may have 70, 80 per cent in Sydney, but you may have very, very low rates in far western New South Wales. So it’s a pretty risky picture overall.”

Dr Stephen Duckett had a warning for NSW on The Project.

Dr Duckett believed the road map was purely business-focused with little consideration on the impact opening up would have on hospitals.

“(It’s) very, very clear this plan has been developed by business,” he said.

“I think there’s been this tension within the New South Wales government for quite a long time, and I think that’s what we’re seeing now, that businesses have said, ‘We’ve had enough, we don’t care what the impact on the hospitals are, we want to get open and here is the strategy to do it’.”

When quizzed by co-host Waleed Aly if that “worried” him, Dr Duckett said, “Does it ever.”

“I’m glad I live in Victoria and not New South Wales,” he added.

“You have tents outside the hospitals to do the triaging already. And you know, they’re saying come the 19th of October or so, we hope things are OK, but maybe they’re not.”

Dr Duckett said he was glad he lives in Victoria instead of New South Wales.

NSW is well on its way to achieving its 70 per cent double dose vaccination goal — after 75 per cent of people received their first jab — prompting the state’s Crisis Cabinet to tentatively predict October 18 as the day restaurants, bars and retail would open for fully vaccinated people.

The state recorded 1405 new cases of coronavirus today with authorities issuing a warning for Sydney’s inner city suburbs as cases continue to spike.

Dr Chant reportedly urged the Premier to be “cautious” in easing Covid-19 restrictions in NSW until 85 per cent of the eligible population was vaccinated, health advice obtained by Sky News Australia revealed.

“To reduce the risk of a UK/Israel type scenario after reopening, it will require a cautious approach to reopening and ongoing public health measures and restrictions while achieving a high level of vaccination ie 85 per cent or more fully vaccinated population (16 and over) as quickly as possible,” the advice from Dr Chant said.

“We should also take advantage of the opportunity to vaccinate as many children aged 12-15 as possible to prevent transmission of this age group and into their households and to contribute to even higher total population coverage.

“NSW does not have the same level of protection afforded in other countries at the same level of vaccination coverage so needs to adopt a more cautious approach to avoid high levels of ongoing transmission, especially in a few months once the initial vaccination protection may start to wane.”