Avatar: The Way of Water box office underperforms

The Avatar sequel just made $US434 million in its opening weekend but in this crazy world, that wasn’t enough.

If any other movie had made almost $US435 million on its opening weekend, everyone would be ecstatic.

But because the Avatar sequel has been so hyped up, and because it needs such a massive box office haul to be considered successful, $US434 million is actually an underperformance. Imagine that.

The three-hour-plus film opened just short of projections, which ranged between $US450 million and $US550 million.

In Australia, Avatar: The Way of Water has made $16.59 million since Wednesday night previews. It’s the second-highest local opening this year, behind Thor: Love and Thunder. Fifty-two per cent of tickets sold in Australia were for 3D sessions.

Avatar: The Way of Water clocked up $US134 million in the US and Canada and a further $US304 million in international markets.

Sam Worthington returns as Jake Sully. Picture: 20th Century Studios

Globally, James Cameron’s epic is the third-highest overall opening weekend since the pandemic hit in early 2020, behind Spider-Man: No Way Home ($US600 million) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($US442 million).

While Disney has not confirmed the production or the marketing budget for Avatar: The Way of Water, a detailed Cameron profile in The Hollywood Reporter pegged the production budget at more than $US350 million.

Marketing costs can often run into the tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, while cinemas take another percentage (up to 50 per cent) of ticket prices.

The director has only ever said the budget was “f***ing expensive” when queried by GQ magazine.

Cameron has previously said an Avatar sequel would need to be the third or fourth highest grossing film of all time just to break even – which means it needs to surpass Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which is sitting on $US2.06 billion, before it starts to turn a profit.

Despite its lower-than-projected first weekend, there are expectations Avatar: The Way of Water will have staying power.

Avatar: The Way of Water is in cinemas now. Picture: 20th Century Studios

The original Avatar film is currently the highest grossing movie of all time with a box office of $US2.91 billion. When it opened in 2009, its US and Canadian box office was $US77 million, which the sequel has already beat, and it grew that eventual regional total to $US760 million.

Anecdotally, many audiences returned to the cinema for repeat viewings of the film, which may be less of compulsion with the sequel’s run time of three hours and 12 minutes compared to the first film’s two hours and 42 minutes.

In the US and Canada, 62 per cent of tickets purchased for Avatar: The Way of Water was for 3D and IMAX sessions, where prices run at a premium.

Avatar: The Way of Water is expected to maintain its strong box office position over the holiday break in Australia and overseas given the relative lack of competition in the blockbuster space.

Marvel movie Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opened over a month ago while Boxing Day and summer releases are more adult dramas and awards season contenders such as The Fabelmans and Banshees of Inisherin or family entertainment Lyle, Lyle Crocodile.

James Cameron has said the Avatar sequel was ‘f***ing expensive’. Picture: Anthony Wallace/AFP

The industry is relying on Avatar: The Way of Water to lure reluctant moviegoers back into cinemas after the disruptions of pandemic lockdowns and the accelerated shift to at-home viewing on streaming services.

Cinemas are also grappling with shortened “theatrical windows” which dictate how long between when a film opens in a theatre and is then made available for at-home viewing. Shorter “theatrical windows” are thought to dissuade audiences from visiting cinemas if they know they can watch it at home without waiting too long.

Two years of lockdowns plummeted the overall box office. In 2019, it was $US42.5 billion before falling to $US12.4 billion in 2020 and $US21.4 billion in 2021.

There are green shoots in 2022. Top Gun: Maverick has hauled $US1.488 billion while Jurassic World: Dominion has made $US1 billion.

Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick is the top earner at the box office so far this year. Picture: Paramount Pictures, Skydance and Jerry Bruckheimer Films.

China, which took over the US as the number one market in moviegoing in 2020, has had a limp 2022 box office after continued lockdowns as other parts of the world have eschewed the extreme measures.

Avatar: The Way of Water opened in China at $US57.1 million, below expectations, according to Variety.

The sequel returns to the planet of Pandora where blue alien Na’vi people including main characters Jake Sully and Neytiri, are faced with another threat from the same humans who tried to ravage the planet before.

Sully and Neytiri, who are now parents, flee the forest and seek refuge with water-dwelling clans.

Cameron has a further three sequels planned but whether they come to pass will depend on how Avatar: The Way of Water performs.