Australia could become a republic in less than a decade, superforecasters claim

Australia has already made the “first step” in the path to ditching the British monarchy and becoming a republic, forecasters say.

With King Charles’ royal coronation now less than a month away, there has been an increasingly pressing question on the minds of the Aussie public.

It is nothing to do with what Charles will wear, what part the royal children will play, or even whether Harry and Meghan will attend – though the latter is still of considerable interest.

The one big thing Aussies want to know is will Australia ever become a republic and, if so, when will it happen?

Since the Queen’s death last year, the debate about whether Australia should become a republic has once again gained traction.

Now, according to a team of expert predictors from around the world, known as superforecasters, Australia could officially part from the British monarchy within the next decade.

A team of superforecasters believe Australia could ditch the British monarchy within the next decade. Picture: Adrian Dennis/AFP

Superforecasters form a global network

But who are these “superforecasters” and how could they possibly predict such an event?

Superforecasting is a scientifically validated process that has its roots in the work of US psychologist Philip Tetlock, who co-founded the Good Judgement project in 2011.

The company won a geopolitical forecasting competition run within the US intelligence community which found the superforecasters were 30 per cent more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified data.

Good Judgement now has a global network of certified superforecasters and provides forecasting services for organisations seeking early insight on pivotal questions about the future.

The group has decades of collective experience in assigning well-calibrated, accurate probability forecasts to complex geopolitical, economic, legal/regulatory, public health, and technology outcomes.

News.com.au posed a series of questions to the team, with one of the topics being Australia’s future with the British monarchy. The number of active superforecasters that contributed to these results ran from 20 to 35 across the different questions.

Key decision points to Australian republic

Asked when will Australia become a republic, 15 per cent of the forecasters said “never”.

However, the median answers of the rest came to 2032, less than 10 years from now.

Multiple forecasters suggested that Australia’s decision not to put King Charles on the new $5 note was a sign that Australia had taken the “first step” on the road to becoming a republic.

The fact that King Charles isn’t replacing the Queen on the $5 note is a sign Australia is moving closer to becoming a republic. Picture: Mladen Antonov/AFP

In February, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced the new King would not grace the note, with the new design to instead be one that “honours the culture and history of the First Australians”.

“The other side of the $5 banknote will continue to feature the Australian parliament,” the RBA said.

“This decision by the Reserve Bank board follows consultation with the Australian Government, which supports this change.”

It’s expected the new pink note won’t enter circulation for a number of years as the central bank consults with First Australians on the redesign.

In the meantime, the current $5 note featuring Queen Elizabeth will continue to be issued.

“First step, not having the King on new banknotes, is already taken. Will take a few years until they are all without royal faces on them,” one of the superforecasters said.

After this, they said declaring a republic “should be an easy next step”, adding that Australia seemed to be making “slow, but certain progress”.

They predicted 2030 – give or a take a few years either side – as the most likely date for when Australia will completely detach itself from the royal family.

Australia could soon follow in Harry and Megan’s footsteps and ditch the royal family. Picture: Netflix

Another forecaster believed it could happen even sooner, predicting the process could kick off any time from this year to 2025.

“The King’s popularity is plummeting. He has been taken off the new $5 bill. Even those who like the monarchy don’t particularly like Charles,” they said.

“One party will use it to their political advantage soon to propose a referendum. And if it is a good one, this time it will pass,” they said, referencing the previous 1999 republic referendum which failed.

Many of the forecasters believed Australia becoming a republic was likely, but differed in their individual answers of just how long it would take us to get there.

One forecaster said there “seems to be an inevitability” about Australia becoming a republic, but noted the timing would depend on international events.

“Ukraine/Russia and potential for China/Taiwan are probably delaying it for now,” they said.

One said while the change would “definitely” happen at some point, there is a “reluctance to change the constitution” and an Indigenous Voice to Parliament must first be created.

Forecasters point to Albanese

A number of the superforecasters referenced the claim from the Albanese Government that it would hold a referendum in its second term if Anthony Albanese wins the 2025 election.

The Albanese government has indicated they would hold a referendum on the subject of Australia becoming a republic if he wins a second term as Prime Minister. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar

In May last year, the Prime Minister appointed Matt Thistlethwaite as the Assistant Minister for the Republic, who will lead a national consultation tour this year to discuss a possible referendum with members of the public.

“The priority for this Government is the Voice to Parliament, the next natural progression for Australia is to have one of our own as a head of state and we’d seek to do that in a second term if we are successful with the Voice in the first term,” Mr Thistlethwaite told Al Jazeera in November 2022.

This would be the first referendum on the subject since Australia last voted against becoming a republic in 1999 after the majority said they wished to stay a constitutional monarchy.

Given the next federal election isn’t until 2025, one forecaster said it was hard to see the change happening before 2027, “as it could involve a multistage referendum”.

“The Albanese Government seems committed to creating the institutional framework for a republic with wider support in Australia,” another said.

“The start of the new reign of Charles III is an appropriate time for both sides to reconsider the relationship.”

However, others predicted the change could take much longer, with one noting there is “no catalyst to force the issue”.

Others believed the change would happen near the end of King Charles’ reign, with one superforecaster saying even then there was a less than 40 per cent chance of it happening.

One of the forecasters, who predicted Australia becoming a republic would “never” happen, said limited polling suggests public opinion is still “very divided”.

“But the status quo more often than not prevails, as it did in 1999,” they said.