Oscars 2025: Demi Moore, Adrien Brody and Zoe Saldana are tipped to win big at the Academy Awards

It’s one of the most wild and unpredictable Oscars in history – as Hollywood stars including Demi Moore, Adrien Brody and Zoe Saldana prepare to walk the red carpet. Here, we predict who will win.

Leigh PaatschNational Film Reviewer

7 min read

March 2, 2025 - 5:00AM

Entertainment Network

Mikey Madison regrets taking Robert De Niro's advice before accepting Best Actress BAFTA

This year’s Academy Awards ceremony is carrying more close contests than usual for Hollywood’s fabled Night of Nights.

Though the Netflix-produced Mexican drug-cartel musical Emilia Perez leads the field with 13 nominations, its chances in almost all categories have been wrecked by the self-destructive social-media outbursts of its breakthrough trans star and Best Actress nominee Karla Sofia Gascon.

The Best Picture race is still a wide-open affair, with Anora believed to be just ahead of Conclave and The Brutalist in terms of locking down uncommitted voters.

Other categories worth keeping close tabs on include Best Actor (where longtime fave Adrien Brody is clashing with rising star Timothee Chalamet), Best Actress (veteran Demi Moore versus rookie Mikey Madison), and Best Supporting Actor (where Australian star Guy Pearce faces a seemingly invincible Kieran Culkin).

Adrien Brody portrayal of László Tóth in The Brutalist could earn him a second Best Actor Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actor In a Leading Role

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Rehearse that fake smile: Domingo is an incredible actor, and the nomination alone is welcome validation of a longstanding reputation for excellence. Just a shame the punchy prison drama showcasing his work doesn’t rise to the occasion. Stan’s unflashy portrayal of a young and hungry Donald Trump was delicately nuanced work that also deserved wider recognition.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: In any other year, Chalamet’s eerily accurate portrayal of iconic singer-songwriter Bob Dylan would be a decisive winner. This was no mere feat of impersonation. The young star coursed deep in search of the enigma that defines Dylan, and found it with ease. No surprise if he prevails here. Fiennes was magnificent as a conflicted cardinal, and has a faint chance of being an upset victor.

And the Winner Is … Adrian Brody. Though a past winner in this category (in 2003 for The Pianist), the ultra-talented Brody has spent a long time in the Hollywood wilderness. Now he is back big time, courtesy of a spectacularly focused performance as Laszlo Toth, the greatest architect who never actually existed. This was highwire acting – imposing, and yet fragile – where not a single stumble was detected. Should Brody miss the boat here then the Oscars are just plain broken.

Kieran Culkin’s win for A Real Pain is just about guaranteed.

Best Performance by an Actor In a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov – Anora

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Hey, it’s a night out, isn’t it?: Before his captivating turn as a henchman with a heart in Anora, Borisov was tagged “the Russian Ryan Gosling”. This nomination confirms he is now a bona fide global star. Norton isn’t seen much on screen these days, but his work as folk music legend Pete Seeger proves he has still got it. Strong was his usual compelling self, but The Apprentice itself hasn’t found much love on the awards circuit.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Guy Pearce already stands tall as one of the best acting talents this country has ever produced. And yet, his sustained excellence over three decades has not been given due recognition. A mesmerising display as a mercurial tycoon in The Brutalist will hopefully nudge Pearce closer to the kind of leading role that will define a fantastic career.

And the Winner Is … Kieran Culkin. The hottest favourite of the night by a considerable margin, Culkin has won every single variation of this category at all the awards shows that matter. Does not exactly hurt his chances that his portrayal of an over-sharing, yet deceptively insightful stoner is by most definitions, too prominent to be a supporting role. Nevertheless, a deserving and popular winner.

Demi Moore gave her performance everything in the out-there body horror chiller, The Substance

Best Performance by an Actress In a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascon – Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison – Anora

Demi Moore – The Substance

Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

Tell the seatwarmer to go home early: Erivo was brilliant in Wicked, but is making up the numbers here. Same goes for Brazilian star Torres, whose mother Fernanda Montenegro was also nominated in this same category 26 years ago for the classic Central Station. Gascon was once the favourite, until the discovery of shameful social media posts from the past saw her comprehensively cancelled from all contention.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Ridiculous that Nicole Kidman missed the cut entirely for one of the bravest performances in recent memory in Babygirl. Almost just as silly that Madison is likely to lose here after missing out at the SAG Awards last weekend. This relative rookie’s sublime work in Anora was supercharged with a ferocity and finesse only the finest in the game can summon. Fingers remain crossed for an unlikely upset.

And the Winner Is … Demi Moore. The likely winner, but not the right one. Was Demi Moore great in The Substance? Yes. But was Demi Moore Oscars-great in The Substance? No. Ever since she burst into contention after a surprise Golden Globe victory, Moore has been surfing a wave of support that is more to do with recognising her longevity as a “name” than the overall quality of her performance. Like The Substance itself, Moore’s grip on her character loosens notably during a wonky second half.

Zoe Saldana impressed as Rita Moro Castro in Emilia Pérez.

Best Performance by an Actress In a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Take a selfie to remember the night by: Newcomer Barbaro was a revelation as Dylan’s muse and rival Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. Her time will soon come. Rossellini is a mite lucky to be here. Her fleeting contribution to Conclave was too severely under-scripted to resonate.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Grande lit up Wicked with irresistible verve whenever the camera was pointed her way in Wicked. If some voters take a set against the likely winner for a certain reason, she is still some hope. Jones’ long-anticipated arrival at the halfway mark of The Brutalist took that epic drama to the next level. A genuine shame she will go home empty-handed.

And the Winner Is … Zoe Saldana. Like Kieran Culkin, an argument can be made that Saldana’s determined display was really a leading performance. However, in addition to being the only factor in Emilia Perez than held a consistent line throughout, the accomplished Saldana has also kept racking up wins all season, including the BAFTAs, Critics Choice and SAGs. Hard to see her losing.

Mikey Madison, Yuri Borisov and director Sean Baker working on the Oscar-nominated drama Anora.

Best Achievement in Directing

Sean Baker for Anora

Brady Corbet for The Brutalist

James Mangold for A Complete Unknown

Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez

Coralie Fargeat for The Substance

Forget that speech you memorised: For the first hour of The Substance, it seemed as if Fargeat was writing a whole new playbook for modern cinema. Then her movie spiralled out of control. Audiard adopted a similarly audacious approach to Emilia Perez, and generated the same mixed results. Mangold’s modest handling of A Complete Unknown was effective, but hardly memorable.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Brady Corbet will be the unluckiest loser of the night. With only his third feature as a filmmaker, Corbet merged an aggressive sense of ambition with a precision of visual and aural design that was simply breathtaking. Miracles of wildly varying scales kept occurring right throughout The Brutalist. Just what will this movie magician do next?

And the Winner Is … Sean Baker. This likely victory has been a longtime coming for one of the most promising and innovative filmmaking talents on the global scene. Baker’s work looks and moves completely differently to his rivals. No-one keeps trapping and releasing energy throughout a motion picture like him. Amazing to reflect just a decade ago Baker was shooting entire features on an iPhone 5 and getting them released into cinemas.

A win for Anora would be a victory for independent cinema.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

The honour’s all yours, the spoils are all theirs: Huge stack of nominees with no chance: Nickel Boys and The Substance are severely flawed; I’m Still Here (foreign language), Dune 2 (sci-fi sequel) and Wicked (musical) do not fit a typical winner’s profile; A Complete Unknown is too old-fashioned in its ways and Emilia Perez had its chances ruined by a controversial star whose antics set fire to an entire awards campaign.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: The Brutalist was a clear frontrunner for the first phase of the awards season, largely on its likelihood to attract voters who like their movies arty, long and challenging. But then it just couldn’t land a trophy anywhere. Now the popular Vatican vote-count thriller Conclave is making a concerted last-minute charge after nicking a surprise win at the SAGs last week. Those who found Anora a bit too saucy for their liking will be sending their votes to this ‘safer’ place.

And the Winner Is … Anora. In what has been one of the tightest and unpredictable races for top honours in several years, it now seems as if the unforgettable Anora is surging for the finish line at the right time. Of all the nominees, this rough diamond of a pic simply sparkles that little bit brighter whenever you think of it. A welcome victory for innovative independent cinema that is also accessible to a mainstream audience. If you somehow missed Anora over the summer, rectify that oversight ASAP!

Conclave is frontrunner for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar.

The Best of the Rest

Best Screenplay – Original

And the Winner Is … Anora. The best scripts don’t just cover all bases. They also uncover new bases you didn’t suspect existed. Screen storytelling at its most alive, alert and exciting.

Best Screenplay – Adapted

And the Winner Is … Conclave. This is what you call great writing: taking a bunch of old guys completing a week-long religious vote count, and turning it into a riveting thriller.

Best Cinematography

And the Winner Is … The Brutalist. No other movie has ever looked remotely like this. Light, shade and camera placements were calibrated in perfect sync with a tale of unique vision.

Best Animated Feature

And the Winner Is … The Wild Robot. Just when you thought screen animation had reached its limits for now, along came this enchanting, next-gen WALL-E.

Best Documentary Feature

And the Winner Is … No Other Land. Only way it can lose is if Oscars voters wish to refrain from straying anywhere near the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Palestine.