Cate Blanchett may have blown her Best Actress Oscar nomination

This Melburnian may well be one of Australia’s most successful exports but Cate Blanchett may well have blown her Oscar nom in a minute.

OPINION

Cate Blanchett’s tour de force in the film Tar has had Oscar buzz since before its release.

The performance delivered by the two-time Academy Award winning Melburnian, nurtured and nuanced by also-nominated writer and director Todd Field, seems like a lock for a Best Leading Actress gong … but can she seal the deal?

After taking home the Critics Choice Association’s nod back in January, there is increasing speculation among insiders that her acceptance speech would cost her valuable votes, opening the door for Michelle Yeoh (nominated in the same category for Everything Everywhere All At Once) to take home the Gold.

Somehow, Michelle Williams’ luminous, understated performance in Steven Spielberg’s The Fablemans got all but lost in the shuffle.

Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett at the Film Independent Spirit Awards on March 4. Blanchett’s recent move may mean she misses out on an Oscar to Yeoh. Picture: Valerie Macon/AFP

Cate, 53, strode to the CCA’s Fairmont Century Plaza stage in her casually elegant Max Mara-designed dress and clutched her trophy tightly as she lamented Hollywood’s “patriarchal pyramid” and likened Awards season to a “televised horse race”.

We collectively held our breath in anticipation that she was about to refute the accolade at any moment and hand it back to the organisation which had bestowed it upon her.

During her impassioned speech about the ‘patriarchal pyramid’, Blanchett looked set to hand back her Best Actress Critics’ Choice Award, on January 15. Picture: Kevin Winter/Getty Images for Critics Choice Association

But no, she headed off to the Press Room for her subsequent duties, prize in hand.

Some Critics’ Choice members I spoke to were unconcerned, dismissing it as “woke” or “actor-speak,” while others in the audience (which surely included Oscar voters) found it ungracious. If the horse race is so unpalatable, maybe she should have taken herself out of the running altogether?

Critics’ Choice member Kjersti Flaa of Norway told me Cate’s discourse “will definitely be in the minds of some voters” and, given the precarious state of televised awards shows, “they might be worried she will do something similar if she wins” on Oscar night.

Producer/filmmaker Alexandra Boyd, whose new documentary Ship of Dreams: Titanic Movie Diaries, thinks Cate’s demeanour showed not only “confidence in her own abilities” but also “that she no longer has to worry about her next job. That coupled with being genuinely a little drunk made the Truth Monkey pop out!”

Cate Blanchett arrives for the 25th Costume Designers Guild Awards at The Fairmont Century Plaza in LA, California, in February. Picture: Jean-Baptiste Lacroix/AFP

In fairness to Cate, she has seemed to let her performance speak for itself rather than trip over herself for recognition. She is secure in her position as one of filmdom’s premiere talents.

This is the category to watch. If she does score a win, will she graciously thank her team in time before the orchestra plays her off, or will she use the moment as a platform for some serious statement on the Motion Picture Industry?

Tar is a lesbian character portrayed by a straight, Cis woman. The much-loved star has already copped criticism that the film is “anti-woman” but defends, “What I love about the story that Todd wrote and the way he directed it and the way we approached it is their same-sex relationship just was.

“It’s not the subject matter of the film, nor are the characters’ genders.”

Meantime, fellow Oscar nominee Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), seems to be in contention for her work in a small low-budget film only after a concentrated social media campaign launched by some A-list celebs, proving that Hollywood is just as political as Canberra.

(Riseborough was the only actor in her category to skip the traditional Nominees Luncheon, further fuelling speculation that there may be more snark than smiles this year. Just ask Viola Davis, widely believed to have been snubbed for a nom for her starring role in the acclaimed The Woman King. So out of left field was Riseborough’s nomination that the Academy announced it will be refining and clarifying the rules around campaigning.)

Andrea Riseborough has been nominated for Best Actress nomination after an A-list push. Picture: Frazer Harrison/Getty Images

This left widely acclaimed Viola Davis out if the running. Picture: Jemal Countess/Getty Images

Marlon Brando famously declined his Best Actor prize for his career-reviving The Godfather in 1972 in lieu of making a statement about the plight of Native Americans, courtesy of his surrogate, activist Sacheen Littlefeather.

Left-leaning Jane Fonda wisely put her signature politics aside when she won Best Actress for Klute, opting instead to remark, “There’s a great deal to say and I’m not going to say it tonight. I would just like to really thank you very much.”

Cate’s fellow Oscar-winning Aussie, Catherine Martin, is nominated for three Academy Awards this year for her work on Elvis, and has spoken about her belief to use such speeches for expressing gratitude and acknowledging colleagues.

You can bet she will have prepared notes stashed into the pocket of her gown in the event she wins (I’m predicting she will). Expect something professional, to the point and coming in meticulously under the time constraints.

Some stars find the entire awards process unbearable. Multi-Academy Award winner Emma Thompson recently admitted that it made her “seriously ill,” adding that “I found the pressure and glare of it too much”.

Blanchett, though, is one of entertainment’s coolest customers in addition to being a good sport, thoughtful artist and canny businesswoman. Given her arguably valid criticism of the public competition, industry eyes will definitely be fixed upon her on Oscar night.

But will anyone who sticks around for the third-plus hour of the show want to hear it?

While we’re on the subject of Aussies and Oscars, with all due respect to Jimmy Kimmel, can we all please agree to let Hugh Jackman be the host for future ceremonies?

While his crowd-pleasing Marvel movies don’t translate into Oscar glory (maybe a win for Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever can change that), his charm, talents and energy would certainly help bring more eyeballs to the annual broadcast.

Nelson Aspen is an award-winning journalist based in NYC.

The 95th Academy Awards are Monday, March 13, 11am AEDT.