Emmys predictions: What will win and what deserves to win

FORGET Game of Thrones. If the Emmys had any sense it would give this amazing TV show every award it’s eligible for. Anything else is a travesty.

The Americans deserves to win the Best Drama prize for its incredible final season

IT’S the most exciting and competitive Emmy race in a long time with a raft of incredible shows and performers up for awards.

We take a punt at what we think will be up for a podium walk and what we wish we would win. And it might also give you an idea of the best TV out there (or at least the best American-made TV) that you maybe haven’t seen.

COMEDY

Atlanta

Barry

Black-ish

Curb Your Enthusiasm

GLOW

The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Silicon Valley

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

This is looking like a two-horse race between Atlanta and The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, neither of which are “traditional” comedies a la sitcom. There was early momentum behind Barry but that seems to have dropped off in recent weeks while, with the exception of GLOW, the rest of the nominees’ best seasons are behind them.

With perennial category winner Modern Family finally out and triple winner Veep ineligible, at least we know it’ll be a newbie winner. Atlanta is some of the boldest, most ambitious TV being made but Mrs Maisel is “funnier”, which could swing votes behind it.

Likely to win: Atlanta

Deserves to win: Atlanta

Watch out for: The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Atlanta’s “Teddy Perkins” episode is one of the chapters on TV this year.

DRAMA

The Americans

The Crown

Game of Thrones

The Handmaid’s Tale

Stranger Things

This is Us

Westworld

The Americans deserves to win for being the best drama in this year’s field — plain and simple. And this is the best shot the espionage/family drama has had in its six-year run, off the back of an incredible, strong final season. Expect the show to pick up something, anything, somewhere (possibly in the Writing or Drama Actor categories) as an acknowledgment for its good work and for being snubbed by the Emmys for so many years.

But it has strong competition from The Handmaid’s Tale, which remains engrossing and relevant despite not being able to measure up against its phenomenal first season. Game of Thrones is also in the mix, as always, but it’s been over a year since the last episode aired and the long-in-the-tooth fantasy epic is creatively more spectacle than great storytelling at this point.

Likely to win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Deserves to win: The Americans

Watch out for: Game of Thrones

The Handmaid's Tale had a chilling second season.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Pamela Adlon, Better Things

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Allison Janney, Mom

Issa Rae, Insecure

Tracee Ellis-Ross, Black-ish

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

This category is Rachel Brosnahan’s to lose. She’s been a strong contender since picking up the Golden Globe at the beginning of the year. Initially, people may have thought it was because the Globes love rewarding an ingénue for a freshman series, but as more and more people have watched her Amazon Prime Video series, they’ve come to realise her effervescent performance not only anchors the show, but jumps off the screen.

She’s magnificent as Midge, a 1950s housewife who discovers a talent for salty language and stand-up comedy. If anyone is going to spoil Brosnahan’s party, it could be Tracee Ellis-Ross who had a strong character arc on Black-ish this year or Allison Janney, who’s not only an Emmys favourite (she’s won seven times) but has been present in voters’ minds after her Oscar win in February for I, Tonya.

Likely to win: Rachel Brosnahan

Deserves to win: Rachel Brosnahan

Watch out for: Tracee Ellis-Ross

A second season of Marvelous Mrs Maisel returns later this year

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish

Ted Danson, The Good Place

Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

Donald Glover, Atlanta

Bill Hader, Barry

William H. Macy, Shameless

Ted Danson in The Good Place is just so, well, good but this is going to be tight race between Donald Glover and Bill Hader. As the understated Earn, what Glover does is less showy but he was absolutely chameleonic as the Michael Jackson-esque Teddy Perkins character in the dream-like/nightmarish “Teddy Perkins” episode in Atlanta this year — it still gives me the chills.

Bill Hader has been a revelation in Barry, a series he also created and had writing and directing duties on (like Glover). His performance as a hitman/wannabe actor has so much depth, pathos and humour, it’s the kind of work that would hands-down win any other year if he wasn’t up against Glover.

Likely to win: Donald Glover

Deserves to win: Bill Hader

Watch out for: Ted Danson

Quadruple threat, Donald Glover — actor, writer, director and producer

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Claire Foy, The Crown

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Keri Russell, The Americans

Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Lead Actress in a Drama is a particularly strong category this year with any of these performances deserving of the trophy — it also includes the two past winners, Elisabeth Moss and Tatiana Maslany. Moss is still favourite but many would love to see Sandra Oh take it, not just for her mesmerising performance as Eve Polastri in the very buzzy Killing Eve but also to make history as the first woman of Asian descent to win here.

Foy is also a sentimental favourite — the Emmys love Brits and it’s their last chance to reward her for her performance with the role having already been recast for season three. And then there’s Keri Russell, whose six years as Elizabeth Jennings, a Russian spy disguised as an American mother and travel agent, has brought some of the best moments to TV. Is it finally her time?

Likely to win: Elisabeth Moss

Deserves to win: Keri Russell

Watch out for: Sandra Oh

Elisabeth Moss won the Emmy last year for The Handmaid’s Tale

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Jason Bateman, Ozark

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Ed Harris, Westworld

Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us

Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Less competitive than the Drama Actress category, this one feels like it’s going to go Matthew Rhys’ way. As Philip Jennings, not only has he had to play himself, which is already a character with a secret identity, he’s also had to pull off several aliases. If Rhys wins, it will be the Emmys’ way of acknowledging The Americans as a whole.

The only real competition will come from Sterling K. Brown who won this last year for This Is Us, even though Westworld’s Jeffrey Wright deserves to be in contention.

Likely to win: Matthew Rhys

Deserves to win: Matthew Rhys

Watch out for: Sterling K. Brown

Matthew Rhys and The Americans would win all the awards in a perfect world

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Zazie Beetz, Atlanta

Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne

Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Betty Gilpin, GLOW

Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live

Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live

Megan Mullally, Will & Grace

Megan Mullally and Laurie Metcalf are Emmy favourites and Metcalf would be a serious threat if Roseanne Barr hadn’t imploded her show and her career. SNL’s Aidy Bryant and Leslie Jones both cancel each other out while Zazie Beetz isn’t visibly “funny” enough in Atlanta. Betty Gilpin did better work in season two, but this year’s Emmys is for season one.

Which means it’s down to Kate McKinnon, who’s won twice before, and Alex Borstein, a well-respected industry veteran whose work on Mrs Maisel could see her over the line if the series manages to sweep. But the conservative money is on McKinnon who’s also more visible thanks to a pumping film career.

Likely to win: Kate McKinnon

Deserves to win: Laurie Metcalf

Watch out for: Alex Borstein

Kate McKinnon and Alec Baldwin as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Saturday Night Live

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta

Louie Anderson, Baskets

Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live

Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Henry Winkler, Barry

Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live

Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel

Henry Winkler has never won an Emmy, not even for playing the Fonz, so it feels like it’s his year. He’s got star power, recognition and a big fanbase. And his work on Barry was also accomplished so it would be deserved. But Alec Baldwin is stiff competition and he’s last year’s winner (the Emmys love repeat winners), even though his Donald Trump impression feels more like a grim caricature than comedic gold at this point.

Tony Shalhoub is a past triple-winner for Monk so he has a lot of goodwill built up and, again, if Mrs Maisel sweeps, he could be carried along. Tituss Burgess should be rewarded for his role on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt but the show has little buzz left while Brian Tyree Henry did great work in the “Barbershop” episode of Atlanta.

Likely to win: Henry Winkler

Deserves to win: Tituss Burgess

Watch out for: Alec Baldwin

How do you go past Fonzie?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

Vanessa Kirby, The Crown

Lena Headey, Game of Thrones

Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale

Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale

Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things

Thandie Newton, Westworld

With three nominees from The Handmaid’s Tale, it feels like it could be a vote-splitter but Ann Dowd was last year’s winner and has the most momentum though Australian Yvonne Strahovski had great character moments this year. Alexis Bledel has been bumped up in the second season (she won in Guest Actor last year for the same role) and did great work this year.

Lena Headey has been an also-ran so many times in this category and has had stronger seasons previously and while Millie Bobby Brown had a better year, Stranger Things’ second season was much weaker and she’ll probably be punished for that. Thandie Newton’s impeccable performance in Westworld was the most accomplished and she could, should, be the spoiler here.

Likely to win: Yvonne Strahovski

Deserves to win: Thandie Newton

Watch out for: Ann Dowd

Yvonne Strahovski had a meaty character arc this year

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

Matt Smith, The Crown

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

David Harbour, Stranger Things

To be honest, the men’s category feels less competitive than the women’s. Mandy Patinkin deserves the win after seven amazing years on Homeland — a show which hasn’t had a lot of Emmy love in recent years but Patinkin continues to be nominated because he’s just that good.

David Harbour is the favourite here as Hopper in Stranger Things but there’s always the chance either of the Game of Thrones men could come in, especially Dinklage as a past winner, or Matt Smith, because the Emmys love a Brit and John Lithgow won in this category last year for The Crown. Really though, the best performance in this category wasn’t even nominated and that was Noah Emmerich for The Americans.

Likely to win: David Harbour

Deserves to win: Mandy Patinkin

Watch out for: Peter Dinklage

Hopper!

LIMITED SERIES

The Alienist

American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Genius: Picasso

Godless

Patrick Melrose

The Alienist and Genius: Picasso shouldn’t even be on this list and Godless, while excellent, wasn’t widely watched enough. So this is going to go down to The Assassination of Gianni Versace and Patrick Melrose.

While Patrick Melrose is a brilliant series, its focus on child sex abuse and drug addiction was perhaps a tad too inaccessible and all the momentum is swinging behind Versace, which was a mind-blowingly great series with amazing performances and a clever backwards time structure that really played with viewers’ empathies.

Likely to win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Deserves to win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Watch out for: Patrick Melrose

American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace was so bingeable

LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Jessica Biel, The Sinner

Laura Dern, The Tale

Michelle Dockery, Godless

Edie Falco, Law & Order: True Crime — The Menendez Murders

Regina King, Seven Seconds

Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Cult

Laura Dern is having quite a renaissance the last couple of years with Big Little Lies, Twin Peaks and The Last Jedi, and that’s set to continue with a win for The Tale, a TV movie in which she plays a woman confronted by her history as a victim of child sex abuse. If The Tale hadn’t been bought by HBO after Sundance, she would be in the Oscar conversation right now.

The only spoiler is Michelle Dockery who still has legacy glow from Downton Abbey and Emmy voters really like Downton performers.

Likely to win: Laura Dern

Deserves to win: Laura Dern

Watch out for: Michelle Dockery

Laura Dern is having a few great years

LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso

Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose

Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower

John Legend, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

Jesse Plemons, Black Mirror: USS Callister

Jesse Plemons, Antonia Banderas and John Legend are non-starters in this category. Jeff Daniels, as a past winner for The Newsroom, is always an outside chance as an FBI counter-terrorism expert in The Looming Tower but anyone not named Darren Criss or Benedict Cumberbatch are way behind in the odds.

Criss seems like the most obvious pick for his portrayal of the charismatic and chilling serial killer Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace — the ability to make a sadistic human be sympathetic is far from easy. But don’t discount Cumberbatch who is not only a past Emmy winner — this is his sixth nomination in seven years, the Emmys clearly love him — but also gave an incredible wrenching performance.

Likely to win: Darren Criss

Deserves to win: Darren Criss

Watch out for: Benedict Cumberbatch

Darren Criss’ performance nuanced and powerful

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES

Adina Porter, American Horror Story: Cult

Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Letitia Wright, Black Mirror: Black Museum

Merritt Wever, Godless

Sara Bareilles, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

Penelope Cruz has movie star pedigree and the Emmys are easily seduced thanks to its inferiority complex but her Assassination of Gianni Versace co-star Judith Light’s performance as the widower of one of Cunanan’s victims was defiant and vulnerable — it was magnetic. Elsewhere, Letitia Wright has a chance thanks, in part, to her involvement in Black Panther this year and Merritt Wever is a past winner for Nurse Jackie which could get her a look-in.

Likely to win: Penelope Cruz

Deserves to win: Judith Light

Watch out for: Letitia Wright

Expect Penelope Cruz’ movie star power to carry her over the line

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES

Ricky Martin, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Finn Wittrock, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Jeff Daniels, Godless

Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert

Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower

John Leguizamo, Waco

With three contenders and none who stole the show more than the others, The Assassination of Gianni Versace actors look likely to split the vote between them. This category looks like Jeff Daniels’ to lose, who gave a deliciously evil performance in Godless — and everyone loves a black hat in a western.

Likely to win: Jeff Daniels

Deserves to win: Jeff Daniels

Watch out for: Brandon Victor Dixon

A black hat without an actual black hat — horrors!

Who do you think will win at the Emmys or who do you want to win at the Emmys? Share your pick with @wenleima on Twitter.