Emmys 2019 predictions: Game of Thrones, Veep and Chernobyl in contention
The Emmys are around the corner and we've taken a stab at who we think will win on the night, including the show that should beat Game of Thrones.
The glitz and glamour of the Emmys will translate to triumphant victories, bruised egos and outrage before the night is over.
But who will win and who will be the spurned? We take a crack at the major categories.
DRAMA
Better Call Saul
Bodyguard
Game of Thrones
Killing Eve
Ozark
Pose
Succession
This Is Us
A Game of Thrones win feels like a foregone conclusion with the HBO epic picking up a record-breaking 32 nominations. It’s already won 10 awards at last week’s creative arts ceremony, and rightly so because from a craft perspective, minus an errant coffee cup or water bottle, the series was highly accomplished.
But uneven storytelling made it a divisive season with many fans furious at what they perceive to be a lacklustre season. That doesn’t seem like it will stop Thrones from storming home, given that it’s a fairly weak year in terms of competition.
Not weak when it comes to the quality of its rivals, but weak when it comes to momentum and buzz, of which Thrones has the outsized share.
Something like Succession, which didn’t miss on any level, should be the victor, but it would struggle in the face of Westeros’ might.
Will win: Game of Thrones
Should win: Succession
Potential spoiler: Killing Eve
LEAD ACTOR DRAMA
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Billy Porter, Pose
Milo Ventimiglia, This Is Us
Bob Odenkirk is overdue for an award and he’s a strong contender for his work on Better Call Saul but the momentum is swinging behind Billy Porter for Pose. The popular actor has done excellent work on Ryan Murphy’s show about the underground ball scene of the 1980s and 1990s.
Jason Bateman, beloved by Emmy voters, is always a possibility and Kit Harington may be swept along if Game of Thrones dominates.
Will win: Billy Porter
Should win: Billy Porter
Potential spoiler: Bob Odenkirk
LEAD ACTRESS DRAMA
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Laura Linney, Ozark
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Robin Wright, House of Cards
In a perfect world, Jodie Comer would walk away with this category for her seductively bonkers performance as assassin Villanelle in Killing Eve — she was undeniably the best part of season two.
But co-star Sandra Oh has the momentum, having won the category at the Golden Globes and the SAGs. Still, with two leading ladies duking it out for Killing Eve, it leaves the field open for someone to sneak in, someone like Emilia Clarke.
Will win: Sandra Oh
Should win: Jodie Comer
Potential spoiler: Emilia Clarke
SUPPORTING ACTRESS DRAMA
Gwendoline Christie, Game of Thrones
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Sophie Turner, Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve
Julia Garner, Ozark
There are four Game of Throners in this category which will surely mean a lot of vote-splitting. If Lena Headey wins, it’ll be for her whole body of work on the show, rather than this season in which she spent 70 per cent of it standing on a balcony.
Maisie Williams is a chance given Arya had the most energetic arc this season, but the smart money is on someone like Julia Garner coming through because of the vote split — she also happens to be great in Ozark and her role is a showy one.
Will win: Lena Headey
Should win: Fiona Shaw
Potential spoiler: Julia Garner
SUPPORTING ACTOR DRAMA
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul
Alfie Allen, Game of Thrones
Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Chris Sullivan, This Is Us
There is a groundswell of support for Jonathan Banks to finally get his, but there’s always a groundswell of support for Banks that don’t eventuate in a win. With three Game of Thrones players in competition against each other, this could be how Banks sneaks through.
But more likely than not, Peter Dinklage will walk off with his fourth Emmy for playing Tyrion Lannister, and he got some meaty dialogue in the final episode.
Will win: Peter Dinklage
Should win: Peter Dinklage
Potential spoiler: Jonathan Banks
COMEDY
Barry
Fleabag
The Good Place
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Russian Doll
Schitt’s Creek
Veep
Unlike its dramatic compatriots, the comedy category is super competitive and solid as titanium. Every show here would deserve to win, it’s proof positive that comedy is where the most exciting and consistent TV is being made.
Veep is the sentimental favourite, a past winner and in its final season, not to mention the popularity of Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Marvelous Mrs Maisel is the defending champion who snuck in when Veep was out of contention last year.
But the best show here, and really across the whole night, is Fleabag — Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s sharp, hilarious and transcendent comedy.
It’s so hard to discount The Good Place, Schitt’s Creek and Russian Doll given their calibre but they probably don’t have the momentum of the others. And then there’s Bill Hader’s assassin show Barry, which could be a surprise winner.
Will win: Veep
Should win: Fleabag
Potential spoiler: Marvelous Mrs Maisel
LEAD ACTOR COMEDY
Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Ted Danson, The Good Place
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
This is a three-man contest between Bill Hader, Ted Danson and Michael Douglas.
Triple-threat Hader deserves the win as a conflicted assassin on the path of attempted reform, and with Barry itself likely to be edged out in the comedy series competition, this could be where voters will want to reward the show. Hader also won last year and the Emmys love a repeat winner.
But Douglas has that movie star charisma voters can’t resist. And Danson is an Emmy favourite so don’t count him out.
Will win: Bill Hader
Should win: Bill Hader
Potential spoiler: Michael Douglas
LEAD ACTRESS COMEDY
Christina Applegate, Dead To Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
This is Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ to lose. She has already collected six Emmys for her role as the morally bankrupt Selina Meyer and voters will want to send her and the show’s final season off with some shiny statues. Louis-Dreyfus is an absolute force when it comes to the Emmys, she already has 11 under her belt (three for producing).
Rachel Brosnahan won last year when Veep rested itself for a year so she’s a decent chance but the award should go to Phoebe Waller-Bridge whose Fleabag character is enigmatic, vulnerable and wee-yourself funny.
Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Should win: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Potential spoiler: Phoebe Waller-Bridge
SUPPORTING ACTRESS COMEDY
Sarah Goldberg, Barry
Sian Clifford, Fleabag
Olivia Colman, Fleabag
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Alex Borstein won last year and is expected to repeat, but Olivia Colman’s stock is so hot after her Oscar win in February for The Favourite and with the new season of The Crown imminent. Plus, her Godmother in Fleabag is just so passive-aggressively awful and yet 100 per cent glorious.
Anna Chlumsky, previously nominated for Veep, might get a look-in for the final season while twice-winner Kate McKinnon is always a threat. It should go to Sian Clifford as Claire, Fleabag’s highly neurotic sister.
Will win: Alex Borstein
Should win: Sian Clifford
Potential spoiler: Olivia Colman
SUPPORTING ACTOR COMEDY
Stephen Root, Barry
Henry Winkler, Barry
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tony Hale, Veep
Conventional wisdom would have it that Henry Winkler would repeat here, especially as he’s had more pathos to play in Barry’s second season. But he’s up against Stephen Root and Anthony Carrigan, his castmates, so the vote could very will splinter.
Carrigan’s Noho Hank is one of the most strangely alluring characters on TV and every line reading elicits a chortle so a win for Carrigan would be well deserving. As would one for Veep’s Tony Hale.
But the momentum is swinging behind Tony Shalhoub, an Emmy favourite with three previous wins for Monk.
Will win: Tony Shalhoub
Should win: Tony Hale
Potential spoiler: Alan Arkin
LIMITED SERIES
Chernobyl
Escape at Dannemora
Fosse/Verdon
Sharp Objects
When They See Us
A showdown between When They See Us and Chernobyl is brewing. In many ways, they’re very similar, both (recent) historical dramatisations of shameful events, and they’re both terrific miniseries but also hard to watch.
The atmospheric Sharp Objects premiered more than a year ago so has little buzz behind it now while Escape at Dannemora and Fosse/Verdon are both long shots.
When They See Us should have the edge given its thoroughly American subject matter of the Central Park Five and its many, many acting nominations, but Chernobyl has become the cultural phenomenon few saw coming.
Will win: When They See Us
Should win: When They See Us
Potential spoiler: Chernobyl
TV MOVIE
Black Mirror: Bandersnatch
Brexit
Deadwood
King Lear
My Dinner with Hervé
Black Mirror episodes have won this category for the past two years in a row so it’s clearly a favourite with voters which may want to reward it for its innovative and mazelike interactive structure. But, for all of its ambition and tech wizardry, the story itself was pedestrian.
Which means it’s likely that Deadwood: The Movie could scrape through as eventual victor. The Deadwood movie took so long to finally mount, a real labour of love, and the series has only grown in esteem since its finale all those years ago.
Now regarded as one of the best TV shows of the 2000s, Deadwood only ever won a directing Emmy along with some craft ones, so voters may look to remedy that past neglect with a win here.
Will win: Deadwood: The Movie
Should win: Deadwood: The Movie
Potential spoiler: Black Mirror: Bandersnatch
LEAD ACTOR MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Mahershala Ali, True Detective
Benicio Del Toro, Escape at Dannemora
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
Can Mahershala Ali translate his Oscar prowess into an Emmy win? Ali’s True Detective performance was masterfully understated but he’s up against some extremely tight competition.
Jharrel Jerome is looking like a favourite, a tour de force in When They See Us, and he’s the only actor of the Central Park Five who played his role through the time jumps. Jared Harris’ Chernobyl scientist role could also be swept along if Chernobyl manages to dominate.
Which leaves Hugh Grant’s wily Jeremy Thorpe in A Very English Scandal a long shot, especially as the series premiered more than a year ago.
Will win: Jharrel Jerome
Should win: Hugh Grant
Potential spoiler: Jared Harris
LEAD ACTRESS MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Aunjanue Ellis, When They See us
Joey King, The Act
Niecy Nash, When They See Us
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
When Sharp Objects came out a year earlier, Amy Adams seemed like she would be a lock for the win. Her Camille Preaker was prickly, flawed and so compelling. Maybe the Emmys would finally give her what the Oscars still haven’t after five nominations: a win.
What a difference 14 months makes. Four-time Oscar nominee Michelle Williams came along and stole all the thunder with her riveting performance as Gwen Verdon, while Patricia Arquette in Escape at Dannemora has also been a strong contender.
Will win: Michelle Williams
Should win: Amy Adams
Potential spoiler: Patricia Arquette
SUPPORTING ACTOR LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Stellan Skarsgard, Chernobyl
Paul Dano, Escape at Dannemora
John Leguizamo, When They See Us
Michael K. Williams, When They See Us
Asante Blackk, When They See Us
Ben Whishaw’s performance in A Very English Scandal as the mercurial, vulnerable and defiant lover Norman Josiffe is magnetic and accomplished, and for that Whishaw remains a slight favourite to win.
He has stiff competition from the well-regarded Michael Kenneth Williams who has always popped up in projects that voters love, and if When They See Us is a dominant force on the night, Williams might come through.
But he has two co-stars in the same category (John Leguizamo and Asante Blackk) which could split the vote. Whishaw should have the edge.
Will win: Ben Whishaw
Should win: Ben Whishaw
Potential spoiler: Michael Kenneth Williams
SUPPORTING ACTRESS LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Emily Watson, Chernobyl
Margaret Qualley, Fosse/Verdon
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, The Act
Marsha Stephanie Blake, When They See Us
Vera Farmiga, When They See Us
Patricia Clarkson may be the only Emmy Sharp Objects will collect from its eight nominations for her portrayal of the melodramatic but darkly devious Adora. Clarkson has won twice before, both times in the guest actress category for Six Feet Under so there’s obviously voter love there.
Double-nominee on the night, Patricia Arquette is Clarkson’s real competition, this time for The Act. It’s an interesting contest given that both the frontrunners are being recognised for playing complicated mothers with (spoilers) munchausen-by-proxy.
If Emily Watson wins here, expect Chernobyl to sweep the night.
Will win: Patricia Clarkson
Should win: Patricia Clarkson
Potential spoiler: Patricia Arquette
The Emmys ceremony will air on Fox8 on Monday, September 23 at 10am AEST
Who do you think should win? Let us know in the comments below
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