Pro-EU mayor, nationalist historian set for Polish presidential runoff

Pro-EU mayor, nationalist historian set for Polish presidential runoff

Pro-EU Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski (R) is set to face nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki in Poland's presidential runoff

Pro-EU Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is set to face nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki in Poland's presidential runoff on June 1, an exit poll showed after the first round, as the far-right made record advances.

An overall victory for Trzaskowski would be a boost for the centrist government led by former European Council chief Donald Tusk, which has been at loggerheads with the current nationalist president.

Ever since Tusk's coalition came to power in 2023, key government initiatives have been blocked by vetoes from nationalist President Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice party (PiS), who is not eligible to run again.

A victory for Nawrocki, who is backed by the PiS party, would likely extend the political deadlock and analysts predict that fresh parliamentary elections may have to be called.

Trzaskowski was expected to get 31.2 percent of the vote and Nawrocki 29.7 percent in Sunday's first round, according to an Ipsos poll based on 90 percent of the votes.

Preliminary results are expected early Monday.

"This result shows... how determined we have to be, how much work lies ahead of us," Trzaskowski, 53, told supporters in the southeastern town of Sandomierz.

Nawrocki, 42, struck a defiant tone: "We must win these elections to prevent one political camp's monopoly of power," he said. 

- Far-right gains -

The election comes at a fraught moment for Europe as Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on, ties with Washington are under strain and far-right populists make electoral gains.

The far-right in Poland was no exception, with its two candidates -- Eurosceptic multi-millionaire entrepreneur Slawomir Mentzen and ultra-nationalist MEP Grzegorz Braun -- tipped to receive more than 20 percent between the two of them.

"This is the greatest success in the history of our political camp," Mentzen said.

Wojciech Przybylski, head of the Res Publica foundation, said the far-right's strong showing "means that Trzaskowski can't be absolutely sure of winning". 

"The runoff result will depend on turnout and mobilisation among youths who voted for Mentzen" and leftist candidate Adrian Zandberg, he told AFP. 

Wojciech Kuras, 44, said he did not vote for Trzaskowski but might in the runoff. 

"It will be hard for Rafal Trzaskowski. This is such a difficult result because if others join together it can be equal," said the entrepreneur from Sandomierz. 

Tusk said an "all-or-nothing" battle had begun.

"It will be a tough fight for every vote. These two weeks will decide the future of our homeland," the prime minister said on X. 

Political scientist Ewa Marciniak said the electoral campaign would be "brutal". 

"Each candidate will try to discredit his rival at all costs, by any means necessary," she told AFP. 

So far, campaigning in the EU and NATO member has largely revolved around foreign policy, showcasing a clash of philosophies over Poland's engagement with the EU and the United States.

- Abortion and LGBTQ rights -

But social issues have also played a part, with the two top candidates offering diverging views on abortion and LGBTQ rights. 

"These elections are about rights for women and minorities... They are about security in the European Union," said Anna Rusztynska-Wolska, a 69-year-old doctor, after voting.

Nawrocki is an admirer of Donald Trump and said the US president told him "You will win" when they met at the White House this month.

The key to the election could be whether supporters of Mentzen, the far-right candidate who came third in the exit poll with 14.5 percent, back Nawrocki in the second round.

Mentzen is a eurosceptic libertarian staunchly opposed to abortion and migrants. 

He has accused the country's one million Ukrainians of taking advantage of Poland.

Poland's head of state is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, steers foreign policy and can introduce and veto legislation.

The result will be closely watched across Europe, where Poland has increased its influence under Tusk and reinforced the country's position as a key voice on NATO's eastern flank against Russia.

bur-amj/jj/fec/rsc