Ukraine, Ukrainian shooting missiles faster than US can build them

There’s a major problem brewing in Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. Although they’re making headway, they need one thing from the US to win.

The United States has an ammunition problem. It has given Ukraine 7000 Javelin antitank missiles. It has 14,000 left. And it will take a year to replace those already used.

It’s even worse when it comes to Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. According to a Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, 2000 have been donated to the Ukraine war effort. The US has about 6000 remaining. And building 2000 replacements will take about five years.

“The United States is approaching the point where it must reduce transfers to maintain sufficient stockpiles for its own war plans,” warns senior CSIS Adviser Mark Cancian. “Will Ukrainian antitank weapons inflict enough Russian combat losses to produce a battlefield stalemate before Ukraine runs out of its most effective antitank weapons?”

#Ukraine: Rare combat footage of FGM-148 Javelin in action in Ukraine - a Russian BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher being destroyed by the US-supplied anti-tank guided missile. pic.twitter.com/Z0OJb9rzjo

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 13, 2022

The US missiles may be extremely effective. But the math is brutal.

They’re expensive. They’re complicated. They take years to build. And they need considerable effort to maintain.

Yet each Javelin can only destroy one tank. And each Stinger can only bring down one aircraft.

If they hit. And if they survive long enough to be fired.

And wherever war is fought, troops will want them. That is true in Ukraine. It could be true for Taiwan. Or India.

“Military planners are likely getting nervous,” says Mr Cancian. “At some point, those stocks will get low enough that military planners will question whether their war plans can be executed.”

War – too expensive to fight

“We have destroyed more Russian military equipment than some countries in Europe currently possess,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky stated proudly of his defender’s success.

But the war’s not over yet.

Russia has 2800 active tanks. It has an additional 13,000 armoured vehicles.

“Open-source intelligence indicates that the Russians have lost about 1300 armoured vehicles,” notes Cancian.

Troops from the Polish 18th Mechanised Division and the 82nd Airborne Division (USA) take part in tactical and fire training on April 8, 2022 in Nowa Deba, Poland. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images.

Many of these have fallen to the US-supplied long-range Javelin missile.

A single soldier can carry the weapon. It can be lugged about the countryside before being “uncapped”, pointed at a designated target, and fired.

It then guides itself to an ideal position above the armoured vehicle before exploding downwards, piercing a tank or APC’s thin upper armour.

#Ukraine: In #Chernihiv Oblast a Ukrainian FGM-148 "Javelin" caused the rapid disassembly of a Russian T-72B tank. pic.twitter.com/C1tRtQwEWc

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 8, 2022

But Russia has another 10,000 older tanks in storage and a similar number of reserve armoured personnel carriers.

“The bottom line is that the Russians are not going to run out of armoured vehicles anytime soon,” Mr Cancian concludes.

Which is why Ukraine is also urgently seeking significant quantities of cheaper, less capable antitank weapons.

That does not mean useless.

The British NLAW (next-generation light antitank weapon), for example, is lighter to carry and cheaper to produce. But its sensors aren’t as complex, its warhead isn’t as powerful, and its range is not as far as that of the Javelin.

It’s also been used to devastating effect in ambushes by Ukrainian troops.

Ukrainian serviceman strikes a Russian AFV with a Next-generation Light Anti-tank Weapon (NLAW). pic.twitter.com/CI1TXwbsos

— Global Defense Insight (@Defense_Talks) April 13, 2022

But stockpiles of this European-made weapon are also limited.

“Time is of the essence,” says Mr Cancian. “The Ukrainians and Russians are now involved in a reinforcement race – both are trying to build up combat forces, logistics hubs, consumables, comms networks, intelligence, engineers, etc as quickly as possible in the east.”

8/10 Time is of the essence. The Ukrainians and Russians are now involved in a reinforcement race - both are trying to build up combat forces, logistics hubs, consumables, comms networks, intelligence, engineers, etc as quickly as possible in the east.

— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) April 14, 2022

Production lag

Bullets aren’t the problem. The US has so far supplied Ukraine with 50 million rounds. It can produce 8.7 billion per year.

Missiles are another story.

It’s not just a matter of buying more. Missiles must be built. And they’re infinitely more complex than the copper, lead, steel and gunpowder of bullets.

Troops from the Polish 18th Mechanised Division and the 82nd Airborne Division (USA) take part in tactical and fire training on April 8, 2022 in Nowa Deba, Poland. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images.

“The delivery time is 32 months; that is, once an order is placed, it will take 32 months before a missile is delivered,” Mr Cancian says of the Javelin antitank missile.

Its manufacturer says it can build a maximum of 6480 in a year. But only 1000 are currently on the assembly line.

“This means that it will take about three or four years to replace the missiles that have been delivered so far,” he warns.

No new Stinger anti-aircraft missiles have been built since 2003. CSIS estimates the remaining stockpile as being about 8000 weapons.

Two decades ago, the maximum production rate was about 720 a year. Production lead times were 24 months.

Russian helicopter hit possibly with Stinger missile. pic.twitter.com/WZkPS8nWbn

— SEICO-OSINT (@SeicoIntel) March 5, 2022

“That means it will take at least five years to replace the inventory drawdown (two years for lead time and three years for production),” Cancian states.

The problem isn’t solely that of the United States.

Russia’s having supply issues, too.

Reports from Ukraine suggest it has long since dialled back its use of smart munitions. In their place, combat jets and armoured vehicles rely on more basic unguided rockets and bombs.

Another issue is the quality and condition of the reserve equipment being mobilised to replace losses. Not to mention the state of its surviving troops.

“Reinforcements and replacements can restore some of the numbers, but skills are deteriorating and morale, never high, seems to be declining,” Cancian says. “So, it is a race. Will Russian combat losses produce a battlefield stalemate before Ukraine runs out of its most effective antitank weapons?”

Originally published as Ukraine, Ukrainian shooting missiles faster than US can build them