Experts brace for NSW Covid cases to explode following major rule change

Victoria has provided a grim clue as to what’s in store for NSW, where cases are set to surge within days following a major rule change.

NSW’s already staggeringly high case numbers will almost certainly surge even further within days as a result of a major government rule change.

On Monday, NSW faced the deadliest day of the pandemic so far, with the virus claiming the lives of 18 residents, including a young child, with a total of 20,293 new cases confirmed.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet announced the state government would soon mandate the registration of positive rapid antigen tests, with Health Minister Brad Hazzard later confirming it had been requested by chief health officer Kerry Chant.

He said the health department had sought legal advice over how to enforce compulsory reporting.

“There has been much discussion regarding the possibility of mandatory enforcement and the health lawyers are consulting with Crown Solicitor’s to look at what may be possible,” Mr Hazzard told Nine newspapers.

“It comes with the added benefit that it might also open the door to federal financial assistance if you’re off work for the week. The bottom line is it is a must-do, even if there is no fine.

“At the end of the day it’s an obligation on all of us to make sure that we log in to the Service NSW app, particularly as it will give a clear picture of how the virus is moving through the community.”

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet fronted the press on Monday, as the state faced its deadliest day of the pandemic so far. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Flavio Brancaleone

The news comes after days of speculation regarding how the state was going to get an accurate understanding of the volume of new cases, after the government earlier announced that PCR tests would no longer be needed to confirm a positive Covid case.

Instead, authorities confirmed positive home rapid antigen tests (RATs) would be sufficient, after testing sites were completely overwhelmed as cases skyrocketed and as holiday-makers sought testing before their summer getaways.

However, the move towards compulsory reporting of positive RATs all but guarantees NSW’s case numbers will explode within days, based on Victoria’s concerning example.

On Saturday – the day after its online self-reporting system launched – the state set a grim new record, with 51,356 new cases confirmed, and nine deaths.

That was a huge jump – more than double, in fact – from the previous day, when just 21,728 cases were announced.

It also marked the highest one-day tally recorded by any state so far during the pandemic.

At the time, Victoria’s Health Minister Martin Foley stressed that the huge leap in numbers did not mean the virus was transmitting in the community more rapidly, but that it was simply a case of authorities catching up on previously unrecorded infections as the system changed.

“We don’t want Victorians to think that the daily transmission has doubled overnight,” Mr Foley said.

“The reported figure has certainly significantly spiked based on that week’s worth of unreported figures that we now have captured in the system.

“However, we should not rule out that there are still undiagnosed cases out there in the wider community, particularly as access to rapid antigen tests grows each day as more supply that gradually comes online.”

The change comes after the nation’s PCR testing sites were overwhelmed over the holidays. Picture: Mike Batterham

Of those new cases, 26,428 were recorded via a rapid antigen test while 24,928 were recorded via a PCR test.

Mr Foley said the inclusion of RAT tests allowed authorities to get a better understanding of the true overall figure, which would help determine where best to allocate resources.

“(It will) take a few days to bed down this new system,” he added.

“I suspect that we will continue to see higher case numbers than the actual number for the previous day for a couple of days yet, while those self reporting processes work themselves out.”

Given Victoria’s situation, and the fact that before the change was rolled out, NSW case numbers were significantly higher, we can expect new record case numbers in the near future.

Last week, infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collignon of Australian National University told Today he didn’t believe the nation had reached the peak yet, with cases set to continue soaring in the days ahead.

But he said cases would likely start to drop later in the month.

Victoria provides a grim hint at what’s in store for NSW. Picture: iStock

“You look at England and South Africa, it reaches a peak and goes up quickly and comes down,” Prof Collignon said last Thursday.

“I think that we have a week or two to go.”

Prof Collignon said the current explosion in cases was caused by Aussies getting together with friends and family over the Christmas period, but that in January, we “tend to do more of our own thing”, which could alleviate the spread.

“I think it will go down. That takes five to 10 days. I would be optimistic it will come down,” he said.

The mandatory reporting of positive RATs is expected to come into effect later this week.

– with NCA NewsWire

Originally published as Experts brace for NSW Covid cases to explode following major rule change