How advanced warning of the Iranian missile strike helped prevent a new global crisis
After Iran struck an air base with US solider, the world waited for Donald Trump’s response. He was preparing to attack until one thing stopped him.
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American troops were warned just three hours in advance of an incoming Iranian missile strike.
This advanced notice, provided to the White House by American spy agencies, may have been integral in the negligible death toll, which kept tensions between the Iranian Government and the Trump administration from soaring to even greater heights.
Here’s what went down that night.
HOW SPY AGENCIES LEARNT OF IRANIAN ATTACK
Prior to the strikes, White House officials had been anticipating an imminent response from Iran for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani.
Spy satellites had been tracking the movements of Iran’s arsenal of missile launchers, and intelligence officials were sure the response to Soleimani’s killing would come that day, The New York Times reported.
Using information from satellites and US aircraft, which had intercepted Iranian communications, US intelligence analysts managed to pinpoint the attack targets to the Al Asad and Erbil bases, according to CNN.
Hours after the strikes, US President Donald Trump reportedly said he‘d be willing to directly attack Iran if there was even one American casualty.
But largely thanks to the interception, there wasn’t.
Officials said the hours-long warning allowed a US military officer to visit one of the bases in Iraq and warn them of the details of the incoming Iranian missile.
As the reports about Taji came in, loudspeakers at the American Embassy in Baghdad announced that an attack could be imminent. American and Iraqi personnel raced towards bomb shelters.
About an hour later, the first missiles bound for Al Asad came over their heads.
Earlier in the day, reports had come in that a training camp north of Baghdad might have been struck. It was a false alarm, but American officials said they believed several missiles fired in that barrage a day prior had been intended for the base.
Over the bombing period, 16 short and medium-range missiles fired out from three locations in Iran. They destroyed several tents and structures housing military equipment, but no lives were lost.
The lack of any real damage done has since prompted a debate over whether Iran deliberately avoided killing American troops.
Satellite images showed what appeared to be at least five destroyed structures at the Al Asad base. Analysts said the missiles “hit dead centre”.
WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THE MISSILE STRIKES?
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, it was all hands on deck.
Mr Trump and Vice President Mike Pence made a series of calls to congressional leaders.
Nancy Pelosi was discussing the situation in Iran with a group of top Democrats within an hour of the attacks.
Republican leaders were briefed directly by Mr Trump.
Over at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defence Mark Esper met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and senior defence officials about the attack.
Later that night, a group of White House officials met in the Situation Room to plan a response.
A senator who spoke with Mr Trump told CNN the President was ready to attack Iranian facilities had there even been one American casualty.
“That lack of casualties fed a sense of restraint in the room,” the report noted.
It also said there was a “sense of calm” that Iran had fired so few missiles out of its arsenal of thousands – and given they had already been expecting an attack.
Mr Trump’s public response to the missile strikes was a delayed one. He did not make an address to the nation that night, as it was initially reported he would.
Around 9pm that night, he called various Republican politicians. He was said to be in a “very, very positive” mood and was willing to negotiate with Iran.
At 9.45pm, he tweeted that “all is well!” and “so far so good”, praising his country’s military:
All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2020
At 1am the next day, the battleground assessment came in, confirming no American troops were killed in the attack. National security teams put their responses together, including plans to sanction Iran.
Later, Mr Trump began drafting his own speech to be delivered to the nation at 11am.
In it, he announced he would be imposing additional sanctions on the Iranian regime but was positive about the lack of casualties.
“I’m pleased to inform you, the American people should be extremely grateful and happy – no Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime,” Mr Trump said.
“We suffered no casualties.
“All of our soldiers are safe, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases.
“American forces are prepared for anything.
“Iran appears to be standing down, which is a very good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world.”
WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?
Despite tensions appearing to ease between the two countries, Iran has issued a new threat to the US, vowing “harsher revenge” for Soleimani’s assassination.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warned of a “very dangerous response” if the US makes “another mistake”.
At the same time, several senior Iranian military commanders warned the US not to underestimate Iran’s ability to strike again.
Abdollah Araghi, a member of Iran’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Revolutionary Guard “will impose a harsher revenge on the enemy in the near future”, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
Tasnim also quoted General Ali Fadavi, the acting commander of the Guard, as saying the missile attack was “just one of the manifestations of our abilities”.
“We sent dozens of missiles into the heart of the US bases in Iraq and they couldn’t do a damned thing,” he was quoted as saying.
General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who leads the country’s aerospace program, said that while Iran only fired 13 missiles at the two bases, “we were prepared to launch hundreds”. He said Iran had simultaneously carried out a cyberattack against US monitoring systems.
He also repeated unsubstantiated claims that dozens of Americans were killed or wounded in the strikes. But he said the goal of the operation was not to kill anyone but to “strike the enemy’s military machine”.
Originally published as How advanced warning of the Iranian missile strike helped prevent a new global crisis