Bitcoin’s value has increased 30 per cent in two weeks
THE reports of bitcoin’s death has been exaggerated. Despite several scandals, the virtual currency is bouncing back and its value has surged in the past two weeks.
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STOP those funeral dirges for Bitcoin. The virtual currency is not dead.
In fact, the price of Bitcoin on Bitstamp, one of the leading Bitcoin exchanges, is up more than 30% in the last two weeks! And it has shot up about 55% since hitting its lowest point of the year in mid-April.
Simply put, Bitcoin prices probably fell too far earlier this year due to fears about the currency’s future following the bankruptcy of the once mighty Mt. Gox exchange as well as concerns regarding China and Russia cracking down on Bitcoin adoption.
All those bad headlines about bitcoins being used on illegal marketplaces like Silk Road for buying drugs and assassins for hire didn’t help either. Nor did the media circus that was the O.J. Simpson-esque chase of the “is he or isn’t he the creator of Bitcoin?” Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto.
Ashraf Laidi, chief global strategist and currency expert with City Index Ltd in London, said there definitely was a “panic” in the Bitcoin market this spring. He thinks that there are several good reasons to explain the rebound.
For one, Bitcoin and other virtual currencies like Dogecoin (which even sponsored a NASCAR driver this year thanks in part to donations from Reddit users) are still gaining in popularity.
Influential tech analyst/venture capitalist Mary Meeker, who became a Wall Street rock star at Morgan Stanley and now works for Kleiner Perkins Caufield and Byers, devoted a slide to the explosion in the number of Bitcoin wallets in her latest internet Trends report. (Meeker unveiled the report Wednesday at the Re/code CodeCon conference.)
The allure of anonymity that Bitcoin offers gets a lot of attention in the press. And it feeds the notion that Bitcoin is just for those with unsavoury and/or illegal tastes.
But let’s be honest, relatively low transaction fees are a big draw too. Saving money may be the bigger reason why more consumers are creating Bitcoin wallets, not some desire to have their financial history hidden from the proverbial “Man” or “Big Brother.”
Major businesses are starting to notice that too.
Satellite TV company DISH Network (DISH) announced Thursday that it would begin accepting bitcoins for bill payments in the third quarter.
DISH joins a growing list of companies that have started to embrace Bitcoin, including online retailer Overstock. com (OSTK), FarmVille owner Zynga (ZNGA) and Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic space tourism firm.
Still, it’s important to remember that Bitcoin is in its infant (maybe toddler if you want to be charitable) stages. There will be more growing pains for the currency and more big moves up and down in price.
Leigh Drogen, CEO of Estimize, a site that crowdsources earnings and sales forecasts from a wide group of investors, remains a fan of Bitcoin. I spoke with him back in October about the currency.
At the time, he owned one Bitcoin. He still owns it and he said that the best thing for investors who believe in the long-term potential for virtual currencies to do is ignore the daily volatility.
“The price is not the most important thing when it comes to Bitcoin. It’s how often it is being exchanged and how much is being purchased,” Drogen said. “There are times when the price will get out of whack because there is a finite amount of bitcoins out there.”
That’s a great point that bears repeating. Governments don’t print bitcoins. The currency is “mined” via complex mathematical transactions, and there is an algorithm in place that controls the amount of bitcoins on the market. And that number is finite.
There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins available. There are currently 12.8 million in circulation, according to Bitcoin wallet and data site Blockchain.
So in that respect, bitcoins are more like stocks than currencies. Because central banks can always issue more paper money, the value of dollars, euro, yen, etc., remain relatively stable over time. But with Bitcoin, there will often be times when demand vastly outstrips supply. Or vice versa.
Laidi adds that for a certain element of investors who had been flocking to gold as a safe haven hedge against inflation, Bitcoin is now more attractive.
Gold, like Bitcoin, has tended to perform well during times when investors fear that central banks may be devaluing their currencies with easy monetary policies. See “Reserve, Federal” or “Japan, Bank of” for recent examples.
There’s also the fact that the venture capital world is taking Bitcoin very seriously. Sure, the VC community doesn’t have a perfect track record. But in addition to Meeker’s endorsement, heavy hitters like Fred Wilson’s Union Square and Andreessen Horowitz both back Bitcoin wallet Coinbase.
So is Bitcoin dead? No. Does that mean that Bitcoin should be worth a lot more than its current price? Maybe. Maybe not.
But I agree 100% with Drogen. Don’t obsess about the price. Don’t treat Bitcoin as a short-term trade. What is most exciting about Bitcoin is the potential for it to truly be an alternative form of currency, not whether or not Bitcoin should be worth $50, $500 or $5,000.
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, Abbott Laboratories and AbbVie, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.
This article was originally published on CNN and was reproduced here with permission.
