Australian Open men’s final: Sam Groth previews Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev

Novak Djokovic may be the King of Melbourne, but there is an heir-in-waiting: and his name is Daniil Medvedev, writes Sam Groth.

Who will win the men’s final?

Whatever happens in the men’s final, one thing is certain: history will be made.

Novak Djokovic, one of the greatest players of the era, the King of Melbourne Park going for an unprecedented ninth Australian Open title and the chance to go within two slams of Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal in the all-time list.

On the other side of the net an heir-in-waiting. Daniil Medvedev, a young man earmarked as one of a handful of players to end the Big 3’s dominance.

Dubbed ‘the next Djokovic’ he has the opportunity not only to become a first-time grand slam winner but also to do what so many before him have failed to and end one of the most dominant holds on a tournament in tennis history.

Djokovic is 8/8 in finals played in Melbourne. That’s a ridiculous record.

By winning, Medvedev will end a 16-year streak of no-one other than Djokovic, Federer, Andy Murray and Nadal being ranked in the top 2 world rankings spots.

Medvedev is on a 20-match winning streak, 12 of which have been against top 10 players

And at 25 years and 10 days, Medvedev is also bidding to become the youngest grand slam men’s singles champion since Djokovic in 2012.

There is so much at stake for them both and given the level they’re both playing at, the title is anyone’s for the taking.

Djokovic of course has experience on his side but with that comes added expectation, more pressure and a ‘favourite’ tag.

Medvedev knows he is the ‘underdog’ and that’s a very dangerous label to give someone of his talent.

So what are the make or break aspects of this match up?

THE CROWD

Love him or hate him the crowd is going to boost the Serb more than you can imagine. If he is booed he will thrive on the hate, he will want to silence the critics. He will go into his zone and turn the noise into power. If they support him then who wouldn’t be bolstered by that?

For Medvedev, we all saw what happened at the 2019 US Open, he thrived on the hostility the American crowd showed him. Booed relentlessly in two matches it only spurred him on to win.

“They kind of don’t understand that they shouldn’t do it,” he said at the time. “I feed from this energy.”

EXHAUSTION V PEAKING

Accumulative workload won’t impact this final for either player. Medvedev has had four and a half hours less on court but that won’t matter, Djokovic is too experienced and has had enough days off since the semi-final.

It depends on each individual player, how they recover and like to compete. Some would see two days off court as an advantage while others prefer to go back-to-back.

Djokovic will have had some hitting time while Medvedev will take confidence from a rapid semi-final. He was cramping so badly after the Rublev quarter-final but he showed none of that on Friday.

From what we saw on Thursday and Friday’s matches, both players are coming in at their peak, so fitness is a tie here.

Daniil Medvedev will be buoyed by a hostile crowd

DON’T FEAR THE DJOKOVIC DEFENCE

No one can deny Djokovic is the best defensive player we have ever seen on tour. He’s incomparable. The way he moves, his flexibility, his ability to get the “un-gettable”. What he can do physically on court is second to none and that’s going to be a massive test for Medvedev.

The abdominal injury is no longer an issue – Djokovic said so himself. Medvedev is going to come up against a 100% fit Djokovic and that’s enormously daunting but the Russian fears no-one.

Sure he will be nervous but he won’t be scared of Djokovic. The way Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz took the world No 1 on goes to show that shaking off the enormity of playing the world’s best player goes a long way in the mental battle.

Medvedev is on a 20 match winning streak - 12 of those are against top 10 players; that’s an incredible stat for anyone on tour.

MEETING YOUR MATCH

Medvedev and Djokovic actually have such a similar playing style it’s going to be a little bit like watching Novak play his younger self.

That’s advantageous and dangerous at the same time. I could mean long, arduous rallies culminating in exhaustion or could lead to each player second-guessing their tactics.

Both have unbelievable backhands – that’s the main weapon. Medvedev will move around the court however much is necessary to make as many returns off this shot as possible. Djokovic has a little more variety to fall back on.

If there is one element of each other’s game they should target for an advantage it’s the forehand. That’s the stroke most likely to break down.

Djokovic is going for a remarkable ninth Aus Open title

There is one stark contrast to these two and that is finesse.

Medvedev’s style is so unorthodox. It’s not how you would teach someone how to play tennis. The question is does it hold up under pressure? We know Djokovic will.

Medvedev has looked meticulous this tournament and it’s not until we see him on court against Djokovic that it will be easier to see parts of his game looks messy. He is young so of course there is room for growth.

ATTACK THE WEAKNESS

Djokovic will know that Medvedev is weak at the net – we saw it against Tsitsipas, coming forward is not a good idea. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russian avoids it at all costs until the post-match handshake.

This is a big opportunity for Novak to exploit, but easier said than done. He will mix in the slice backhand, and this variation could prove deadly.

As for Medvedev, speed is going to be his greatest friend.

He needs to start this match fast and force the pace. If he can get an early break and advantage on Djokovic, he will retain more control and give himself the best chance.

A sluggish start will quite possibly see this end in straight sets.

PREDICTION

So we have Djokovic and ‘Djokovic of the future’ doing battle. I can’t help but feel the world No 1 still has the edge.

He was my pre-tournament pick for the title so I’m sticking with him for history.