Australian Open 2022 crystal ball: Who will win? What will happen with Novak Djokovic?
The Australian Open is almost here but there are still so many unanswered questions. Our experts discuss what will happen, from early exits to shock winners.
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We swear, you’ve never seen anything like this before.
While last year’s Australian Open build-up may have felt like previously uncharted territory – with a tournament delay, player backlash over hotel quarantine and positive Covid tests – this one tops the lot.
From the raft of players to become Covid positive in the weeks leading into this year’s event, to the withdrawal en masse of star players – and of course the Novak Djokovic saga that has sent shockwaves around the world – this year’s Australian Open really has already been like no other.
So how do predict what is going to happen next? That’s the task we’ve given to the News Corp experts.
Here's who they’ve come up for the men’s and women’s winners, Australia’s best hopes, a tournament breakout star – and the various storylines to follow for the next fortnight.
SAM GROTH
Men’s winner: Daniil Medvedev. Outstanding player and one of the most consistent on the tour. Won his first grand slam last year and denied Novak Djokovic a calendar slam. The draw has also gone his way.
Women’s winner: Ash Barty. The Aussie’s going to have to come through some big tests in the middle rounds – most notably a potential fourth round clash with Naomi Osaka – but there’s no doubting she has what it takes to go all the way. Added bonus of home support will be huge.
Breakout star: Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian had a remarkable end to 2021 which saw her break into the world top 10 for the first time. Made the quarter-finals in Melbourne two years ago and is primed to go better.
Aussie that will go furthest: Ash Barty. A third grand slam title and an Aussie winning a slam on home soil. It’s what we all want – and need!
Star who won’t reach the second week: Aryna Sabalenka. The world No 2 has had an absolute nightmare build up to the Aus Open. In two matches she hit a total of 39 double faults. Her service game in particular is all off. Not convinced she’s going to make much impact here.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Unfortunately for the second year running, Covid has a firm grip on deciding how this event goes. We’re already seeing players withdraw after testing positive and crowds have been capped. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Bold prediction: Don’t write Alexander Zverev off. If for any reason Medvedev isn’t holding the trophy aloft in two weeks’ time, Zverev is really well placed to finally clinch his first slam title.
SCOTT GULLAN
Men’s winner: Rafael Nadal. With all the focus on you-know-who, the fairytale result would be Nadal to break the all-time grand slam tie. Looked good winning warm-up tournament.
Women’s winner: Naomi Osaka. The worst result for local hero Ash Barty was Osaka deciding to end her hiatus in Melbourne. She goes to another level here on courts which suit her perfectly.
Breakout star: Carlos Alcaraz. The Spanish teenager has gone from 492 to 32 in just two years. Made quarter-finals of US Open last year and looks like the second coming of Rafa.
Aussie that will go furthest: Ash Barty is the obvious and again looks fit and strong but don’t rule out a second week run from Ajla Tomljanovic.
Star who won’t reach the second week: Sofia Kenin. The 2020 winner missed half of last year and looked rusty in the lead-up.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Andy Murray making us all warm and fuzzy by winding back the clock in a run to the second week.
Bold prediction: Naomi Osaka to not lose a set for the tournament.
LAUREN WOOD
Men’s winner; Daniil Medvedev. Not going outside the box here but think his form has been brilliant and favouritism is warranted.
Women’s winner: Ash Barty. The way 2022 has been going so far, we need a lift and the Queenslander is the one to do it.
Breakout star: Sebastian Korda. It’s been a grim few weeks with Covid and a well-publicised, erm, hit in quarantine but the young gun can bounce back.
Aussie that will go furthest: It goes without saying, Ash Barty. Osaka looms but could be the challenge that sets up her finals run.
Star who won’t reach the second week: Emma Raducanu. The US Open winner cops Sloane Stephens and then potentially Simona Halep. Anything but easy.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Naomi Osaka’s return to tennis after four months off. Can’t wait to see how a two-time Australian Open champion comes back.
Bold prediction: Schedulers and broadcasters to resemble ballerinas and live on their toes for the entire two weeks as Covid protocols reign supreme. RATs as sought after as a spot on Grand Slam Oval circa 2012 with players set to stash them like towels.
EMILY BENNAMAR
Men’s winner: Daniil Medvedev. Love how he plays. Love that he enjoys the villain role yet somehow remains a crowd favourite. Super entertaining to watch and has a really decent draw.
Women’s winner: It’s a tough choice between Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka but I’m going with the latter to claim her third title here. The pair will likely meet in the fourth round which will be a hell of a match. Osaka had a tough 2020 but boy is she an incredible talent. Will have enjoyed a relatively quiet arrival into Melbourne too amid Djokovic drama.
Breakout star: Her name got a little lost in the Emma Raducanu mania post US Open, but I honestly think Leylah Fernandez is going to be a superstar. Tipping her for a strong Australia run.
Aussie that will go furthest: Dylan Alcott to finish his incredible career with one final home slam title. Love everything he has done for the sport and beyond. What a finale it would be.
Star who won’t reach the second week: Too much pressure has been put on Emma Raducanu since that night in New York. I think she’s an incredible talent but she needs more time to develop. With an opening round clash with Sloane Stephens, her time to shine in Aus will come, but not this year.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Stars speaking out on Peng Shuai. Amid all the drama in the build up to this tournament, I hope players still use the platform to voice concerns for their peer.
Bold prediction: Based on their warm-up form, I don’t foresee the majority of the women’s top 10 making it to week 2.
MARC MCGOWAN
Men’s winner: Novak Djokovic. Yep, I said it, however unpopular it might be. The Djoker is still the man to beat until someone – on or off the court – knocks him off his Melbourne Park throne.
Women’s winner: Ash Barty. The projected round-of-16 clash with Naomi Osaka complicates things and would be a far-too-early blockbuster, but her Adelaide form was ominous. C’mon, Ash!
Breakout star: Jannik Sinner. I’m all-in on the Italian, who was unbeaten without dropping a set at the ATP Cup. There’s a big chance he makes at least the quarter-finals this fortnight.
Aussie that will go furthest: Ash Barty. It would be a shock if she didn’t advance to the fourth round – and that might already be enough to outlast her compatriots.
Star who won’t reach the second week: Sofia Kenin. The 2020 Australian Open champion drew in-form fellow American Madison Keys in the first round and might be packing her bags early.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Nothing means more to Australians this fortnight than a local, any local, finally ending our 44-year title drought. Ash Barty is the latest great hope.
Bold prediction: Nick Kyrgios, if he plays, will upset Daniil Medvedev in the second round. Leads their head-to-head 2-0 from two 2019 clashes.
JOE BARTON
Men’s winner: Alexander Zverev. This seems risky given some patchy lead-in form, but I think the time has come for the Olympic gold medal winner, whose best grand slam results have come on hard courts, to make the step up and become a champion.
Women’s winner: Ashleigh Barty. The pressure for Australians to succeed at Melbourne Park is immense, but Barty has the mentality and game to overcome that and become the first local singles champion in 44 years.
Breakout star: Roman Safiullin. Could the 24-year-old be this year’s Aslan Karatsev? He pulled off some big results in the ATP Cup and can continue the Russian revolution of men’s tennis in Melbourne.
Aussie that will go the furthest: We could have two Australian champions lifting trophies in the next fortnight – in addition to Barty taking the women’s crown, back Dylan Alcott to hang up the racquet with an eighth Australian Open title.
Star who won’t reach the second week: Nick Kyrgios. Kyrgios will be given up until Sunday night to test negative for Covid, so he can take his place in this year’s tournament. But it the disrupted preparation will be too much.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: Can Craig Tiley break the world record for sleep deprivation, which currently stands at 264 hours? The tournament organiser barely got a wink during last year’s tournament – and this one has surely presented even more sleepless nights.
Bold prediction: No Australian male to reach the third round.
LIAM TWOMEY
Men’s winner: Daniil Medvedev – Fresh from his US Open success, the fiery Russian is set for a big fortnight at Melbourne Park. Runner-up last year, his form is strong enough to go one better.
Women’s winner: Ash Barty – All the attention has been elsewhere in the lead up to this year’s event and that will suit Ash perfectly. She is as under the radar as a home world number one can possibly be.
Breakout star: Alex de Minaur – He might be a star in Australia but the Demon is about to introduce himself to the world by making a quarter-final run.
Aussie that will go the furthest: Ash Barty – She won’t just be the Aussie who goes the furthest. She will be the last woman standing.
Star who won’t reach second week: Emma Raducanu – The US Open champion has won just two matches since her incredible run at Flushing Meadows and she isn’t close to her best after a tough start to 2022.
Non-Novak storyline to follow: How the players handle the Covid drama and if anyone will be forced to pull out mid-tournament.
Bold prediction: This year’s Australian Open title will be one of three slams for Ash Barty.
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