Women’s World Cup: How the world rates the Matildas’ chances of winning
Some of the biggest names in football say the Matildas are the team to beat at this year’s World Cup - but realistically what are the chances of Australian success? Emma Kemp investigates.
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Marta says the Matildas can make the final and Sam Kerr has a hunch this is their time.
But how does the rest of the world rate Australia's chances in France?
Are we a genuine shot at the title or has the hype been slightly overdone?
Kerr and company have been variously described by international media as “an outside bet” (BBC), possessing “the personnel and ambition to go a long way” (Washington Post), and boasting “arguably the best goal-scorer in the entire world” but let down by a defence that “just isn’t very good” (SB Nation).
Brazil’s six-time FIFA player of the year Marta went out on a limb to talk up her country’s arch-rivals and Group C opponents.
"Australia can go very far,” Marta said.
“But they are in Brazil's group and we won't make their lives easy, you can be sure.
“They can reach the final but I hope they won't and that Brazil can do it."
Kerr described the sentiment in camp as one of “quiet confidence”.
“We don't fear anyone,” Kerr told The Daily Telegraph.
“We think this is our time and it's our best bet. We have a lot of people playing overseas so we're the best prepared (as possible).
“But, you know, the women's game has grown so much in the last few years. There's countries that have just come out of nowhere in the last year or so.
“For example, Spain have just shot out of the woodworks, Scotland's really picked up their game lately. Spain are my dark horse if I was to be betting on anyone.”
Betting companies have world No.6 Australia in the second tier of overall odds, in the range of about 15/1 and 20/1.
Reigning champions the United States and hosts France are at the shortest odds, with Germany and England also in the vicinity.
A step down is Australia, Japan, Spain, Sweden, Brazil, Canada, Norway and the Netherlands, the latter who dismantled the Matildas 3-0 in last weekend’s final friendly.
Minnows Jamaica, Cameroon and Thailand are by far the outsiders of the 24 teams.
Odds only count for so much and, until Alen Stajcic’s controversial recent sacking, much chatter within Australia has been about targeting the trophy itself.
This is without a doubt the Matildas’ strongest squad, with the long-established core group hitting their prime.
And if new coach Ante Milicic can correct defensive flaws and Kerr is on song, this could be the year they advance past the quarter-finals for the first time.
And yet, the turmoil surrounding the Stajcic affair aside, results have been inconsistent in the two years since the Matildas engineered their first-ever win over the US at the 2017 Tournament of Nations.
Indeed, they enter the tournament on a two-game losing streak for the first time since 2016, after leaking eight goals to the Dutch and the US before them in April.
It’s also been 15 months since Australia have beaten a European side, last edging Norway at the 2018 Algarve Cup.
In the interim there’s been a draw and a loss to Portugal, a loss to France, a fortuitous draw with England, and a loss to Holland.
How much one can read into that is unclear, though European nations are clearly on the rise and Arsenal Ladies’ Australian manager Joe Montemurro has tipped that a team from the continent will bring home the Cup.
Montemurro did, though, forecast a top-four finish for the Matildas.
And the green and gold do have an aptitude for playing up to bigger sides.
It’s the smaller nations that shape as potential banana skins - hark back to last year’s defeats to Chile and Thailand.
“I feel like we still play with the underdog mentality, but we're no longer an underdog,” said central defensive stalwart Alanna Kennedy.
“I think four years ago we were an underdog, and I still think we have that presence on the field that you don't know what to expect.
“You can never be complacent with the Aussies because you just never know.
“Now we are a fierce competitor and we still have that edge of ‘you can't take us lightly’, because of the aggressive way we play.”
Originally published as Women’s World Cup: How the world rates the Matildas’ chances of winning
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