Winx’s shadow still blocks out The Autumn Sun, but not by much

IT’S closer than you think, with a phantom race between star colt The Autumn Sun and Winx over 1600m only having the legendary mare winning by less than two lengths.

The Autumn Sun vs Winx: Who wins?

A PHANTOM race between The Autumn Sun and Winx over 1600m has the legendary mare winning by less than two lengths.

Leading analysts at Punters.com.au based the simulated match race from heaven off Winx’s win in the George Main Stakes and The Autumn Sun’s Caulfield Guineas runaway victory.

GUINEAS ROUT: THE AUTUMN SUN GLOWS RED HOT

EVEREST ROMP: REDZEL AT PEAK OF HIS POWERS

DOUBLE DELIGHT: WEIR BAGS TWO GROUP 1S

WINX CHALLENGE: IMPORT THE REAL DEAL

Based on time alone, Winx, who stopped the clock about 1.5 seconds faster in the Randwick romp than the rock star colt’s five-length win last Saturday, could win by up to nine lengths.

But the actual computer-simulated margin, however, was only 1.25 lengths, taking into account race day conditions, 200m splits from the 1000m, speed and both horses carrying 57kg among a number of other variables.

According to Punters.com.au data, The Autumn Sun would be hard-pressed keeping up with Winx over 1600m let alone the extra 440m needed to stop the world’s best from winning an unprecedented fourth consecutive Cox Plate.

Ben Cadden takes Winx for a stroll in the shallows at Altona Beach on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

The fully simulated race, with overall time removed due to the George Main being run faster than the Guineas, had Winx reel in The Autumn Sun with 400m to go.

Winx then puts the hammer down, travelling at 63kph, before throttling down from a top speed of 67kph (last 200m sectional) to the winning post.

“Essentially Winx is clocking speeds that Black Caviar was capable of, only she’s doing it in middle distance races up to 2000 metres which is quite phenomenal,” Punters.com.au form analyst James Lamb said.

Johanne Taylor riding The Autumn Sun alongside D'argento (grey) at Altona Beach.

The Autumn Sun has never raced beyond 1600m making it impossible to compare him to Winx over a longer distance.

The smart colt would, however, benefit from an eight-kilogram pull in the weights with three year-old’s allotted only 49kg in the $5 million weight-for-age classic at the Valley.

So who wins? It matters not because The Autumn Sun’s connections don’t want to find out if their colt is actually good enough to bring down the mighty mare.

“I’m not all that interested or excited about the prospect of trying to knock off probably the most significant horse we’ve had here for about six or seven years,” the Arrowfield Stud manager Paul Messara told RSN927 on Monday.

“I don’t want to be the one that knocks her off, if he were good enough.

“I would be presumptuous to say that (we’d beat her) but he would have a big pull in the weights.

“He’s a young colt on the rise, who knows, the fact is, I certainly wouldn’t enjoy the day, thinking that our success would come from her failure. I’m not interested, I’m really not.

“She’s one of the greatest things to happen to racing here, you take the overall view there’s going to be plenty more races when he’s fully developed so we’ll wait until then.”

The Autumn Sun vs Winx: Who wins?

DISTANCE LEFT — SPEED

1000m

Winx (George Main Stakes) 61.43kph

The Autumn Sun (Caulfield Guineas) 62.28kph

800m

Winx 60.81kph

The Autumn Sun 59.36kph

600m

Winx 61.75kph

The Autumn Sun 61.07kph

400m

Winx 63.72kph

The Autumn Sun 61.64kph

200m

Winx 67.76kph

The Autumn Sun 62.07kph

Finish

Winx 64.29kph

The Autumn Sun 61.86kph

Written By (right) wins the Group 2 Pago Pago Stakes at Rosehill.

SAPPHIRE SHAPES AS WRITTEN TEST FOR SMART COLT

BLUE Diamond Stakes winner Written By will have five rivals in the Blue Sapphire Stakes, his final lead-up to the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes.

The Grahame Begg-trained Written By is the highest-rated three-year-old among the six acceptors for the Group 3 Blue Sapphire (1200m), the feature race on Wednesday’s Caulfield program.

His opponents are set to be Godolphin’s last-start Group 2 Danehill Stakes winner Encryption, Chris Waller’s stakes winner Performer, the Lindsay Park duo of Tony Nicconi and Smart Elissim and debut maiden winner Spielberg from Henry Dwyer’s stable.

Written By’s only defeat from six starts has been his fourth in the Golden Slipper in March, and the colt returned from a spell with a short-neck victory at Caulfield on September 22 in a 1000m set weights plus penalties race against his own age.

Written By was taken to Mornington for a gallop between races last Thursday as part of his Blue Sapphire preparation and will jump from barrier two in Wednesday’s race.

“I thought he did a really good job first up,” his jockey Jordan Childs said.

“He wanted to race a bit fiercely and got taken on and was there to be beaten but I thought he held them on the line.

“I think he’s got to step up again on Wednesday but he’s definitely on track for the Coolmore.

TAB EARLY ODDS

BLUE SAPPHIRE STAKES (WEDNESDAY)

Written By $1.65 (opened $1.80)

Encryption $5 (opened $5.50)

Tony Nicconi $6.50

Performer $7.50 (opened $6)

Smart Elissim $10 (opened $8.50)

Spielberg $26 (opened $34)

CAULFIELD SPRINT

Eduardo $4 (opened $4.20)

From Within $4.20 (opened $3.80)

Bons Away $6

Spending To Win $6

Faatinah $8

Quilista $9

Others Quoted $11+

TRISTARC STAKES

Invincibella $4

Savatiano $4.20 (opened $4.40)

Ellicazoom $8 (opened $11)

Oregon’s Day $8.50 (opened $6)

Prompt Response $8.50 (opened $8)

Shumookh $8.50 (opened $13)

I Am A Star $10 (opened $8)

Others Quoted $11+

CAULFIELD CLASSIC

Extra Brut $4.20

Thinkin’ Big $4.80

Sikorsky $5 (opened $4.80)

Dealmaker $9

Mickey Blue Eyes $9

Others Quoted $13+

CAULFIELD CUP (Final field Tuesday 10am)

Yucatan $4.50

Youngstar $5.50

Kings Will Dream $6.50

The Cliffsofmoher $9

Ace High $11

Night’s Watch $11

Best Solution $15

Homesman $15

The Taj Mahal $15

Others Quoted $18+

Markets: TAB Fixed Odds