The Early Oil: The Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart previews Saturday’s Moonee Valley meeting

TAB BIG BETS: THE Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart looks at the nine-race card at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

THE Herald Sun’s Matt Stewart looks at the nine-race card at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

RACE 1

Good race but reckon costly RING DA BELLE (4) is worth another chance, especially each-way. She wasn’t far from Leica Day last start and suspect the Leica Day form might be stronger than the form YULONG BABY (2) and YELLEN (3) are bringing to the table. Mark Zahra replaces Nicholas Hall on Ring Da Belle, so no loss there. Yulong Baby has been super, coming from nowhere to win at Caulfield last start. Not sure if the Valley, with rail out 3m, will suit her run-on style as well. Yellen is racing consistently and was a big Valley winner four starts back but she seems to have been up forever. DEFROST MY HEART (1) and MONOGRAM (6) next best.

SUGGESTED BET: Ring Da Belle each-way.

TAB market movers: Yellen $4.40 — $4 ($600 @ $4.40)

RACE 2

Very keen on DANUKI (2). Showed heaps of class and good pace last prep in tougher races. Likes the Valley. Will press forward and take a power of beating. SNOOPY (1) was competitive against the top drawer during the spring and gets valuable claim for Dylan Dunn. IRISH SATURDAY (3) ran well here in December and is a solid last-start winner. Doubt he has the class of the other two however. Nothing else has a chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Danuki the win.

TAB market movers: Danuki $4.60 — $3.80 ($1000 @ $4.60), Challenge Accepted $26 — $11 — $9, Street Pride $18 — $15 — $13.

RACE 3

CHOOSE (1) might be a good gamble each-way. She was on the heels of the best of her sex last time in, is a winner fresh and flies at this trip. Should get a nice run from good gate and gets claim. Ticks enough boxes to be a good each-way chance. Mick Kent would have targeted the Valley first-up for MISS STEELE (2), who likes the track and goes well fresh. Nice recent trial at Cranbourne. OUR HARMONY (4) was terrific first-up in better class and has claims. CELERITAS (3) is flying but will need to weave from her gate as she does get back. CALAVERITE (5) resumes for John O’Shea. Has won fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Choose each-way.

TAB market movers: Miss Steele $8.50 — $6 ($400 @ $8.50), Our Harmony $6.50 — $4.40, Calaverite $4 — $4.20 — $3.20 ($1000 @ $3.80). Deduction 6c x 6c for Fine Approach.

RACE 4

Darren Weir has an amazing Valley record and POPPIHOLLA (11) looks like adding to it. Made enormous ground from back in the field at Sandown and step to 2040m gives her a chance to settle closer. Lightly raced with heaps of upside. FLYING LIGHT (1) never runs badly and seems perfectly placed to run well again. Claim a plus. BIG DON (2) looks suited at the trip and also has upside. Maybe TOSSILINI (10) next best.

SUGGESTED BET: Poppiholla the win.

TAB market movers: Big Don $18 — $10. Deduction 3c x 3c for Value Of Justice.

RACE 5

It’s Weir versus Corstens and despite being outnumbered two to one, Team Corstens can prevail with in-form DEL PRADO (4). Two runs back excellent run-on efforts and seems perfectly placed third-up at this trip. Only query is whether track is playing his way. No such issue for iron on-pacer BURNING FRONT (1) who has been up almost as long as the West Gate Bridge. Just keeps performing. No other chances.

SUGGESTED BET: Exacta 4/1.

TAB market movers: Del Prado $2.90 — $2.60. Deduction 2c for Word Of Mouth; 2c for Eunice.

RACE 6

Another thin race with WALES (2) and RADICAL (5) the only chances. Slight leaning to Wales at the better price. Total forgive last start when in market off blinder at previous occasional good fresh runs but trip didn’t suit. Effort was OK and steps to far more favourable trip. Ballarat Cup placing last November was excellent. Radical picks himself. Charged home behind good horse in Tashbeeh last start. Valley winner. The rest can only fill minor holes. USE THE LOT (7) was better last start and will race on pace. REBEL RISING (13) returns to favourite track.

SUGGESTED BET: Quinella Wales and Radical.

TAB market movers: Radical $4.50 — $3.90 ($1000 @ $4.50, $1000 @ $4.20), Prima $17 — $7. Deduction 3c x 3c for Rich River.

Mourinho is the class all-rounder in the Australia Stakes.

RACE 7

There’s no Black Caviar, or anything close, but it’s a good, even edition. So many unknowns. Where’s TRUST IN A GUST (4) at for instance? HUCKLEBUCK (3) and REBEL DANE (1) are the class sprinters and MOURINHO (2) is the class all-rounder who won this race last year. Happy to go with Hucklebuck who is just so darned consistent and classy. Trainer has excellent record over here and Hucklebuck has the class to settle right on the speed and cruising. Rebel Dane always runs well in this class, including this track and distance. Good barrier and should sit back and swoop. It’s hard to see Mourinho having the zing to beat that pair but we thought that last year as well. DURENDAL (8) is up in class but fit and flying. Watch betting with Trust In A Gust.

SUGGESTED BET: Take Rebel Dane and Hucklebuck in quaddie.

TAB market movers: Rebel Dane $3.20 — $3.40 — $3.20 ($1000 [twice] @ $3.40), Mourinho $21 — $9.50, It Is Written $81 — $26, Sirbible $15 — $11 ($500 e/w @ $14/$3.88, $500 e/w @$11/$3.35), Rageese $13 — $9, Holler $11 — $8.

RACE 8

There’s a hanky between a handful of these, including the top two. Slight nod to BEAU RADA (2) over TREVINDER (1), mainly because of his better draw. Beaten just over a length by Rough Justice last start which reads well for this. Not sure where Chris Symons will go from the outside gate as Trevinder usually sits close to the speed. Flying. SHAKESPEAREAN LASS (7) is fit and goes quick. Will give them something to chase but seems under the odds. DANGER CLOSE (3) may have got a little lost in funny old race up the straight last start where field spread all over the place. Had been working to a win before that and will swoop late. PATHWAYS (6) next best.

SUGGESTED BET: Beau Rada the win.

TAB market movers: Shakespearean Lass $3.20 — $3 ($1000 @ $3.20, $1000 @ $3).

RACE 9

The stable was wary last start but very keen that PIN YOUR HOPES (2) would lift sharply second-up at pet trip. Drew off track fresh, no guide. Look for sharp improvement at good odds. Phillip Stokes has a phenomenal record over here and RATIONALITY (10) is flying in SA. ABBASSO (1) will be big odds but his second-up stats, including at this track, are very good. No real excuses for VOLCANIC ASH (4) last start but he has a bit of upside and suited here. ORION (5) has some hope and TUFF HOST (9) was excellent last start. Include RIB EYE (13) and PREPEE (14) in multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: Pin Your Hopes each-way.

TAB market movers: Rationality $4.40 — $3.80 ($600 @ $4.20).

MATT STEWART’S BEST BETS

BEST BET: DANUKI (Race 2, No. 2)

BEST VALUE: WALES (Race 6, No. 2)

QUADDIE: 2,5/1,3/1,2,3,6,7,/1,2,4,5,9,10,11,14

COST: $100 for 62.5 per cent.

BIG 6: 1,10/1,2,4/2,5/1,3/1,2,3,6,7,/1,2,4,5,9,10,11,14

COST: $100 for 10.41 per cent.