The Early Oil: Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley gives his extended preview of Saturday’s Mornington Cup meeting

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the 10-race card on Mornington Cup Day and identifies progressive stayer Tom Melbourne as his standout selection.

Magna Rossa ridden by Katelyn Mallyon wins race 4 at Flemington racecourse, new years day races. Friday, Jan 1. 2016. Picture: David Crosling

HERALD Sun form analyst Michael Manley looks at the 10-race card on Mornington Cup Day and identifies progressive stayer Tom Melbourne as his standout selection.

RACE 1

Good run by DELIBERATE (2) last week at Caulfield in a stronger race when seventh to High Church stamps him as the one to beat. Step up to 3400m is a slight query but has more potential than his rivals. REAL JAZZ (4) battled on well last start at Sandown over 3000m. Form over summer was solid. CELTIC PRINCE (1) was well beaten over 3600m last week at Oakbank but has fitness on his side. SLY ROMANCE (7) was poor last start but finished second twice over 3000m at Cranbourne and then at Moonee Valley over summer.

Suggested bet: Deliberate each-way.

RACE 2

Our Harmony salutes at Mornington last year. Picture: Derrick den Hollander

OUR HARMONY (2) is two from two at this track. Forget her last start failure at Bendigo as she was in the wrong lane. Has a touch of class and also has the benefit of boom apprentice Brandon Stockdale’s 3kg claim. Lightly raced MEFNOODA (6) resumes. She’s won three of her seven starts and has form around horses such as La Passe and Andrassy last campaign. ANDRIOLI (8) showed a stack of talent in the spring and can boast a win over Silent Sedition. A LOTTA LOVE (3) was slightly disappointing when she resumed at Moonee Valley but her two runs in spring were brilliant winning at Ballarat and Flemington. SHACARDE (7) won this race last year and will go forward from inside barrier.

Suggested bet: Our Harmony the win.

RACE 3

POP (8) raced on the speed and was strong to the line when she won over 1400m at Pakenham last start defeating the leader SMARTSON (4) who fought on quite well. RESORT (6) settled last and ran on well in the same race for fourth. Extra 100m should suit. Didn’t jump well last start. Expect him to take up a handier position. MR MARKOU (1) ran on strongly for third in Adelaide in strong race last start over 1200m.

Suggested bet: Resort each-way.

RACE 4

HONOURABLE TYCOON (9) has been a model of consistency with a win, a second and four thirds from his last six starts. Just missed at Sandown last start when carrying 58 kilos when beaten by NATIVE LAND (8) who ran on strongly. Locally trained ELJETEM (7) is also racing consistently and finished fourth in that race. ITERATION (4) is fitter for two runs back from a spell and has the ability to win this. She ended up in the wrong spot at Bendigo last start. HOKKAIDO (3) is also racing consistently.

Suggested bet: Honourable Tycoon each-way.

RACE 5

VELOX (2) ran some top races last spring and he resumed with brave fourth in the fast run Golden Mile at Bendigo behind Nevis. Finished off nicely at Bendigo and step up to 2000m will suit. Also carries a two kilos claim from in-form apprentice Dylan Dunn. Darren Weir has two smart emerging stayers in MASTER OF ARTS (10) and MASTER ZEPHYR (5). Master Of Arts was trapped wide but worked home well for fourth behind Tucano at Moonee Valley last start while Master Zephyr is fitter for two runs back from a spell. LOVING HOME (8) had the box seat in that race and finished a close third.

Suggested bet: Velox each-way.

RACE 6

Jockey Katelyn Mallyon and Magna Rossa enjoyed success on New Year’s Day. Picture: David Crosling

MAGNA ROSSA (8) showed a stack of ability earlier in the year. She won at Flemington on New Year’s Day in a faster time than the Standish and then fought on for third at Caulfield behind Golden Spin after having to work hard early. Resumed at Bendigo and was beaten just over a half a length. JUST GOT LUCKY (2) made it two from two when he fought hard to win at Moonee Valley last start. REZAK (6) showed potential last campaign and should run well fresh. STOKER (1) didn’t have a lot of luck at Flemington last start. Stormed home for close-up fifth behind the in-form Stellar Collision at Moonee Valley. VORSPIEL (12) is showing talent and last start second at Lakeside to Good Offa when showed speed.

Suggested bet: Magna Rossa each-way.

RACE 7

AMADEUS (2) is drawn out but is an above average colt. Won his first two in good style and then ran into an above average filly Silent Sedition in the Bendigo Guineas. Should be good speed in this. GOLD FIELDS (7) won at Sandown last start in ridiculously easy fashion being eased down by Brandon Stockdale to win by three lengths after leading throughout. The first 1000m was run in slow time. BUT IT’S TRUE (13) strolled in by six lengths at his debut at Warrnambool. GET THE DUKES OUT (11) is showing promise. Bolted in at Mildura last start. Lots of chances including TARQUIN (1), RONG DOOR REGGIE (3), PALACE TYCOON (2) and LAHQA (14).

Suggested bet: Amadeus each-way.

RACE 8

Thermal Current must be considered as a decent each-way chance. Picture: Getty Images

THERMAL CURRENT (7) resumed from a spell with a good run on effort for third at Flemington behind Malaguerra. Form last autumn included a second to Politeness and a close-up fifth in the Goodwood carrying the same weight as his former stable mate Flamberge. Godolphin’s MEURSAULT (16) won in quick time at Randwick last start. Has form around some topliners early in his career. RELDAS (2) is racing in a purple patch of form. Followed excellent Oakleigh Plate run with easy Moonee Valley win. FAST CASH (15) is also racing in career best form with impressive run on wins at Sandown and Bendigo at his last two starts. SMOKIN’ JOEY (1) will get back and storm home,

Suggested bet: Thermal Current each-way. Box exacta 1,2,7,15 and 16.

RACE 9

TOM MELBOURNE (4) is an exciting staying prospect with five wins from seven starts including his last three starts. Two starts ago he easily defeated the smart Divan over 1800m and then bolted in with the Albury Cup despite not handling the heavy track and hanging in badly and even hitting the running rail. OBSERVATIONAL (3) ran on strongly for third in the Easter Cup off a fast pace. Step up to 2400m should suit. PEMBERLEY (15) is also a promising stayer. Drifted back to far in the Stony Creek Cup on a day which played to on-pacers but finished off well. BIG MEMORY (2) finished second in this race last year. Tried hard when close second in the fast run Bendigo Golden Mile to Nevis. PUCCINI (1) was also close-up in the Easter Cup and blinkers go on first time. DANDY GENT (13) is racing well but has a wide draw.

Suggested bet: Tom Melbourne the win.

RACE 10

FACE FORWARD (6) is an above average mare resuming from a spell. Back to back Flemington winner last time in and has form around some top horses. WELL SPRUNG (11) set a fast pace before he tired over 1200m at Moonee Valley last start. Previous form was sound and drop back to 1000m should suit. CORSICA LAD (1) powered home to win at Albury last start and is a smart short course horse. MARWOOD (3) races well fresh. SOLAR DUCHESS (2) is racing in great form.

SQUEAKY SQUIRREL (4) is underrated.

Suggested bet: Face Forward each-way.